1994 – Democrats win the last statewide Texas election when a Democrat carries a Senate seat, establishing a three‑decade drought for the party in statewide contests[12].

2018 – Beto O’Rourke loses to Ted Cruz by three points, marking the closest a Democrat has come to breaking the Republican hold on Texas Senate seats in recent memory[12].

2021 – Texas legislators stage a walkout; Jasmine Crockett stays in the chamber while James Talarico returns early, a fact Crockett later cites to question Talarico’s commitment to “fighting” the GOP[5].

Summer 2025 – Texas conducts a mid‑decade redistricting that upends the House map, energizing Democrats and reshaping the congressional landscape ahead of the 2026 Senate race[3].

Oct 2025 – An University of Houston‑Texas Southern poll places Ken Paxton ahead of John Cornyn (34% vs 33%) in the Republican Senate primary, indicating a tight GOP contest[7].

Dec 7 2025 – Jasmine Crockett prepares two cashier’s checks for simultaneous filing decisions, reviews an October University of Houston poll that shows her leading a four‑way Democratic primary, and consults with Colin Allred, Marc Veasey and Stacey Abrams on strategy[4].

Dec 8 2025 – Jasmine Crockett files paperwork hours before the deadline, launches her Senate bid with a video that features Donald Trump’s voice calling her a “very low IQ person,” and Colin Allred withdraws from the race to run in the newly drawn 33rd Congressional District[3†8†9].

Dec 9 2025 – At a Dallas announcement, Crockett declares “I’m coming for you” to President Trump and vows to take an IQ test against him, while reporting $4.6 million raised for her campaign and positioning herself as the party’s “unprecedented candidate” to flip the seat[12].

Dec 26 2025 – Polymarket shows Ken Paxton leading the Republican primary at roughly 62%, while a co‑efficient poll on Dec 4 finds incumbent John Cornyn narrowly ahead of Paxton (28% vs 27%) and a large share of voters undecided[7].

Dec 27 2025 – Democratic strategists identify Maine and North Carolina as top Senate pickup targets and cite an external poll that gives Crockett an advantage in the Texas Democratic primary, despite mixed favorability numbers against Republican opponents[6].

Jan 9 2026 – The March 3 primaries loom as the first major 2026 midterm contests; Texas Democrats Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico vie for the Senate nomination while Republicans John Cornyn, Ken Paxton and Wesley Hunt battle for their party’s ticket[2].

Jan 24 2026 – The inaugural Texas Democratic Senate debate takes place at the AFL‑CIO convention; Crockett declares “the system has been fighting her, so she is fighting back,” calls for “edgy things” and says there is “more than enough to impeach Donald Trump,” while Talarico frames the fight as “top versus bottom” and condemns ICE as a “rogue organization”[1].

Jan 25 2026 – Crockett challenges Talarico, highlighting his early return from the 2021 walkout, opposes DHS/ICE funding (“I will shut it down”), and outlines a platform of wage growth, gun‑safety measures and Medicare for all; divergent polls show Talarico leading by nine points in an Emerson poll but Crockett ahead by eight in a Barbara Jordan Center poll[5].

Feb 20 2026 – Stephen Colbert’s unaired interview with Talarico is pulled over legal concerns, prompting a $2.5 million fundraising surge for Talarico; Crockett responds by intensifying ground operations in Dallas‑Fort Worth, urging supporters “not to let up off the gas” as the primary approaches[10].

Mar 3 2026 – Texas holds its Senate primaries; Democrats Crockett and Talarico compete for the nomination, while Republicans Cornyn, Paxton and Hunt vie for their party’s ticket, with early voting already underway and a potential runoff scheduled for May if no candidate secures a majority[1].

May 2026 – If the March primary yields no majority winner, Texas law mandates a runoff election to determine the final Democratic and Republican nominees[7].

Nov 3 2026 – The general election decides the U.S. Senate seat; the Democratic nominee will face the Republican primary victor in a race that could help determine control of the Senate, as Democrats have not won a Texas Senate seat since 1994[12].