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Trump Heightens Iran Threat While North Korea Leverages Nuclear Deterrence

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  • U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un are seen before missiles in this Newsweek illustration.
    U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un are seen before missiles in this Newsweek illustration.
    Image: Newsweek
    U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un are seen before missiles in this Newsweek illustration. Source Full size
  • U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un are seen before missiles in this Newsweek illustration.
    U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un are seen before missiles in this Newsweek illustration.
    Image: Newsweek
    U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un are seen before missiles in this Newsweek illustration. Source Full size

Trump Escalates Military Pressure on Iran After Recent Strikes President Donald Trump has intensified military pressure on Iran, signaling possible action on earlier threats and following recent U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and a Delta Force raid that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro [1]. The administration’s rhetoric suggests a willingness to expand kinetic options against Tehran, though direct orders remain unpublicized. Analysts note the timing aligns with broader U.S. strategic shifts toward more aggressive posturing in the Middle East [1].

North Korea’s Nuclear Arsenal Now Matches Major Powers North Korea fields missiles capable of reaching the United States, achieving a deterrence level that China and Russia have effectively accepted as de facto nuclear status [1]. Senior fellow Ankit Panda argues this capability validates Kim Jong Un’s regime and deters U.S. actions, especially after recent American strikes on Iranian sites [1]. The expanded arsenal marks a significant evolution from the country’s first test two decades ago.

Pyongyang Deepens Military Cooperation With Russia Moscow and Pyongyang reinforced ties with a mutual defense pact signed in June 2024, the first formal agreement since the 1961 China treaty [1]. An estimated 10,000 Korean People’s Army personnel are reported fighting in Ukraine alongside Russian forces [1]. This deepening partnership underscores North Korea’s strategic alignment with Russia amid growing Western pressure.

Sanctions Falter as North Korea Leverages Cybercrime and Smuggling Former State Department official Joel Wit observes that sanctions have limited impact, while North Korea generates substantial revenue through an extensive overseas smuggling network and increasingly lucrative cybercrime operations [1]. These illicit streams fund the regime’s military modernization and sustain its nuclear program despite international isolation [1]. The effectiveness of economic pressure remains a contested policy issue.

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Timeline

1961 – North Korea and China sign a defense treaty, the first formal agreement of its kind that later frames the significance of the 2024 Russia‑North Korea pact [1].

2018 – Joint maritime exercises between South Korea and Japan halt after Seoul protests Japan’s Rising Sun Flag, a dispute that later underpins the 2026 resumption of SAR drills [6].

June 2024 – North Korea and Russia sign a mutual‑defense pact, the first formal agreement since the 1961 China treaty, deepening NK‑Russia military cooperation [1].

July 2024 – South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won‑sik visits Japan, marking the last defense‑chief trip before Ahn Gyu‑back’s 2026 visit [6].

Dec 3 2024 – South Korea declares martial law, prompting a reassessment of its armed forces and fueling President Lee Jae Myung’s push for “self‑reliant defense” [8].

Dec 1 2025 – South Korea urges the United States to start civil uranium enrichment talks; Vice‑Foreign Minister Park Yoon‑joo meets Deputy Secretary Landau in Washington and both sides agree to launch working groups on nuclear energy and nuclear‑powered submarines, with first meetings slated within three months [27, 28, 29, 30].

Dec 2 2025 – Seoul reaffirms its full obligations under the Nuclear Non‑Proliferation Treaty while advancing a nuclear‑powered submarine program and civil spent‑fuel reprocessing, assuring IAEA cooperation [23].

Dec 5 2025 – The United States releases a new National Security Strategy that omits any reference to North Korea, urges allies to boost defense spending, and highlights South Korea’s pledge to raise defense outlays to 3.5 % of GDP [22].

Dec 7 2025 – Both the U.S. NSS and China’s security white paper remove denuclearization language regarding the Korean Peninsula, signaling a possible shift in strategic framing [21].

Dec 9 2025 – Foreign Minister Cho Hyun says Seoul will accelerate cooperation with the United States on atomic energy and nuclear‑powered submarines, calling the recent Lee‑Trump summits a “milestone” for the alliance [20].

Dec 10 2025 – Senator Andy Kim criticizes the NSS for deprioritizing the Korean Peninsula, warning that the document reduces America from a global to a regional power [19].

Dec 12 2025 – A U.S. envoy reaffirms the goal of complete North Korean denuclearization despite its omission from the NSS, while Seoul announces it will not use joint drills as leverage in inter‑Korean talks [18].

Dec 15 2025 – U.S. Forces Korea commander Gen. Xavier Brunson stresses that joint drills are essential for readiness; South Korea’s Unification Minister urges possible adjustments to encourage dialogue, and the two‑day “Winter Tiger” drill tests responses to nuclear‑radiological terrorism [16, 17].

Dec 18 2025 – South Korea sets a two‑year deadline to conclude fuel‑supply talks with the United States for its nuclear‑powered submarine program and plans a pangovernment body to oversee the project’s safety and strategic status [15].

Dec 18 2025 – Seoul plans President Lee Jae Myung’s state visit to China in early 2026 and a timely summit with President Donald Trump, aiming to cement trade, nuclear‑energy, and submarine cooperation [14].

Dec 19 2025 – Foreign Minister Cho Hyun reiterates the schedule for Lee’s China visit and the U.S. summit, emphasizing U.S. commitments to civil uranium enrichment, spent‑fuel reprocessing, and nuclear‑powered submarines [13].

Dec 24 2025 – South Korea and the United States agree to pursue a stand‑alone pact focused on cooperation over nuclear‑powered submarines, signaling deeper bilateral defense collaboration [12].

Dec 24 2025 – Both governments announce the creation of sectoral working groups on nuclear energy and submarines, with the first meetings to occur within three months, advancing the implementation of summit commitments [28].

Jan 21 2026 – Defense Minister Ahn Gyu‑back schedules a three‑day visit to Japan (Jan 29‑31) to meet Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, following the Nara summit between President Lee and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi [11].

Jan 26 2026 – South Korean Defense Minister Ahn Gyu‑back and U.S. Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby meet in Seoul, discuss the nuclear‑submarine program, wartime operational‑control transfer, and the new U.S. National Defense Strategy; Colby calls the ROK a “model ally” and notes its 3.5 % GDP defense‑spending pledge [10, 9].

Jan 27 2026 – The U.S. National Defense Strategy urges allies to assume “primary responsibility” for their own defense, omits any mention of North Korean denuclearization, and cites South Korea as a model ally for burden‑sharing [8].

Jan 29 2026 – Defense Minister Ahn Gyu‑back departs Seoul for Yokosuka, Japan, to meet Koizumi; the South Korean Black Eagles aerobatic team refuels at Naha, marking Japan’s first fuel support for South Korean jets [7].

Jan 30 2026 – South Korea and Japan resume joint naval search‑and‑rescue drills, the first since 2017, after a 2018 flag dispute; the ministers also agree to explore cooperation in AI and space [6].

Feb 3 2026 – South Korean and U.S. diplomats issue a joint statement pledging close cooperation on civil nuclear power and nuclear‑powered submarines, reinforcing the alliance’s strategic energy partnership [5].

Feb 4 2026 – Foreign Minister Cho Hyun and U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright reaffirm the urgency of advancing civil uranium enrichment, spent‑fuel reprocessing, and nuclear‑submarine acquisition, committing to swift working‑level consultations [4].

Feb 5 2026 – The U.S. State Department reaffirms extended nuclear deterrence for South Korea despite its omission from recent strategy documents; President Trump threatens to raise tariffs on Korean autos, lumber and pharmaceuticals if the trade deal stalls [3].

Feb 6 2026 – South Korean Army Chief Gen. Kim Gyu‑ha and U.S. Army Pacific Commander Gen. Ronald P. Clark hold a video call, review peninsula security threats, and pledge deeper multilateral cooperation ahead of the May LANPAC Symposium [2].

Feb 20 2026 – President Donald Trump intensifies military pressure on Iran while North Korea watches under its nuclear shield; expert Ankit Panda argues NK’s deterrence validates Kim Jong Un’s regime, and NK deepens ties with Russia, fielding ≈10,000 troops in Ukraine after the June 2024 mutual‑defense pact [1].

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