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Talarico’s Primary Odds Jump After Viral Interview as Prediction Markets Surge Nationwide

Updated (3 articles)
  • PolyMarket CEO Shayne Coplan walks on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York, Thursday, Nov. 13, 2025. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)
    PolyMarket CEO Shayne Coplan walks on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York, Thursday, Nov. 13, 2025. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)
    Image: Newsweek
    PolyMarket CEO Shayne Coplan walks on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York, Thursday, Nov. 13, 2025. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig) Source Full size
  • James Talarico, a Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate speaks to media after he voted in Austin, Texas, Tuesday, February 17, 2026.
    James Talarico, a Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate speaks to media after he voted in Austin, Texas, Tuesday, February 17, 2026.
    Image: Newsweek
    James Talarico, a Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate speaks to media after he voted in Austin, Texas, Tuesday, February 17, 2026. Source Full size
  • James Talarico, a Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate speaks to media after he voted in Austin, Texas, Tuesday, February 17, 2026.
    James Talarico, a Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate speaks to media after he voted in Austin, Texas, Tuesday, February 17, 2026.
    Image: Newsweek
    James Talarico, a Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate speaks to media after he voted in Austin, Texas, Tuesday, February 17, 2026. Source Full size
  • PolyMarket CEO Shayne Coplan walks on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York, Thursday, Nov. 13, 2025. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)
    PolyMarket CEO Shayne Coplan walks on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York, Thursday, Nov. 13, 2025. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)
    Image: Newsweek
    PolyMarket CEO Shayne Coplan walks on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York, Thursday, Nov. 13, 2025. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig) Source Full size

Interview Pulled From Broadcast, Uploaded to YouTube The 15‑minute interview with Rep. James Talarico was removed from The Late Show on February 19 because the FCC’s equal‑time rule would have required CBS to give comparable airtime to all qualified Democratic candidates [1]. CBS posted the segment to its official YouTube channel, where it quickly amassed millions of views and set a new platform record [1]. The viral video prompted intense social‑media discussion and placed Talarico at the center of a national conversation about media fairness and election coverage [1].

Betting Platforms Raise Talarico’s Primary Probability Within hours of the YouTube upload, Polymarket listed a 78 percent chance that Talarico would win the March 3 Democratic primary, while Kalshi showed a 76 percent probability, up sharply from roughly 60 percent the previous week [1]. The surge coincided with a $2.5 million influx to Talarico’s campaign in the 24 hours after the video’s release [1]. Early voting in Texas began on February 19, and the primary runoff is scheduled for May 26 if no candidate reaches a majority [1].

Regulators and States Clash Over Prediction‑Market Authority The CFTC’s newly appointed chair, Michael Selig, announced federal backing for Kalshi and Polymarket, arguing that states cannot override the agency’s exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts [3]. Nevada, Massachusetts and other states have sued the platforms as unlicensed sportsbooks, and a federal judge issued a temporary restraining order against Kalshi in Nevada, prompting a “friend of the court” brief from the CFTC [3]. Kalshi operates under CFTC oversight, while Polymarket remains blocked in 33 countries, including the United States, highlighting a fragmented regulatory landscape [2].

Political Figures Deepen Ties to Market Operators Donald Trump Jr. serves as a strategic adviser to Kalshi and invested in Polymarket through his venture‑capital firm, raising conflict‑of‑interest concerns as the administration supports the platforms [3]. Proponents claim that crowd‑sourced betting can surface truth, yet critics warn of gambling harms and the spread of misinformation [2]. The convergence of a high‑profile political interview, soaring prediction‑market odds, and federal regulatory endorsement underscores the growing influence of these platforms on electoral dynamics [1][2][3].

Sources

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Timeline

Jan 2025 – Donald Trump Jr. joins Kalshi as a strategic advisor and his firm 1789 Capital invests in Polymarket’s advisory board, posting on X that Kalshi gave him “hours ahead of the fake news media” election insight, signaling high‑profile political backing for prediction‑market platforms [3].

Feb 4, 2026 – Polymarket lists a question on potential Epstein disclosures, with “Yes” shares trading at $0.19 and “No” at $0.82, showing how a $100 stake could yield $499.43 or $121.95 and illustrating the volatile, stock‑like pricing of crypto‑based prediction contracts [3].

Early Feb 2026 – Texas begins early voting for the Democratic primary, which is set for Mar 3, 2026 with a runoff scheduled for May 26, 2026 if no candidate reaches a majority, establishing the electoral timeline that frames the Talarico race [1].

Feb 17, 2026 – CFTC Chair Michael Selig files a “friend of the court” brief supporting Kalshi and Polymarket, declaring that “states cannot undermine the agency’s exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts” and warning that opponents “will be taken to court” [2].

Feb 18, 2026 – Kalshi reports more than $1 billion in contracts traded around the Super Bowl, with roughly 90 % of volume tied to sports, underscoring the platform’s dominance in the burgeoning sports‑prediction market sector [2].

Feb 19, 2026 – CBS removes a 15‑minute interview with Rep. James Talarico from The Late Show over FCC equal‑time concerns, uploads it to YouTube, and the video quickly amasses millions of views, setting a new platform record for virality [1].

Feb 19, 2026 – Prediction‑market odds for Talarico surge, with Polymarket listing a 78 % chance of winning the primary and Kalshi showing 76 %, up from 61 % and 40 % a week earlier, reflecting the interview’s impact on voter perception [1].

Feb 19, 2026 – Talarico’s campaign reports a $2.5 million fundraising boost in the 24 hours after the YouTube video goes viral, dramatically enhancing his primary war chest [1].

May 26, 2026 – A runoff election is slated for the Texas Democratic primary if no candidate secures a majority on March 3, providing a decisive future contest that will determine the party’s nominee [1].