Saudi‑U.S. Nuclear Agreement Draft Could Grant Riyadh Enrichment Capability
Updated (2 articles)
Deal Draft Reveals Enrichment Possibility Congressional documents show the Trump administration is negotiating a nuclear cooperation agreement that would let Saudi Arabia develop uranium enrichment, fuel fabrication and reprocessing capabilities, all under a bilateral IAEA safeguards framework [1]. The draft explicitly mentions technology transfer that could “open a path” to a weapons‑usable program if further steps are taken [1].
Historical Attempts Show Continuity Across Administrations Both the Trump and Biden administrations previously pursued nuclear deals with Saudi Arabia to share U.S. technology, prompting non‑proliferation experts to warn that providing centrifuge expertise could enable a future weapons program [1]. The concern intensifies because Iran’s nuclear ambitions remain unresolved, raising regional proliferation risks [1].
Regional Nuclear Dynamics Intensify With Pakistan Pledge Pakistan’s defense minister announced that Pakistan’s nuclear program “will be made available” to Saudi Arabia under a mutual defense pact signed last year, a statement interpreted as a strategic warning to Israel, the region’s sole nuclear‑armed state [1]. This pledge adds a new layer of complexity to the Gulf’s security calculations [1].
UAE Model Highlights Alternative Non‑Enrichment Path The United Arab Emirates signed a “gold‑standard” 123 agreement with the United States that deliberately excludes enrichment, focusing instead on building the Barakah plant with South Korean assistance [1]. Experts cite the UAE deal as the preferred peaceful‑nuclear template, contrasting sharply with the Saudi draft’s enrichment provisions [1].
Saudi Crown Prince Links Nuclear Parity to Iranian Threat Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman warned that if Iran acquires a nuclear bomb, Saudi Arabia “will have to get one,” underscoring the strategic motive behind seeking enrichment capability [1]. The statement ties the prospective nuclear program directly to regional power balances and deterrence concerns [1].
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Timeline
2017‑2021 – The Trump administration initiates a nuclear cooperation proposal with Saudi Arabia to transfer U.S. centrifuge technology, prompting early non‑proliferation warnings about a possible enrichment pathway [1].
2021‑present – The Biden administration continues to explore a similar nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia, keeping the prospect of enrichment technology transfer alive [1].
2017 – The United Arab Emirates signs a “gold‑standard” 123 agreement with the United States for the Barakah plant, deliberately excluding enrichment and becoming the regional model for peaceful nuclear power [1].
Sep 2025 – Saudi Arabia and Pakistan sign a Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement, pledging mutual defense and signaling Pakistan’s re‑entry into West Asian security architecture [2].
2025 – Field Marshal Asim Munir rises to dominate Pakistan’s security policy, steering a military‑led pivot toward Gulf states and aligning Pakistan with Saudi strategic interests amid the Gaza conflict [2].
2025 – The Gaza war reshapes Gulf security calculations, prompting Saudi Arabia and other Arab states to seek coordinated defense arrangements with Pakistan as U.S. engagement wanes [2].
2025‑2026 – Despite diplomatic gains, Pakistan’s deepening economic and political crises remain unresolved, threatening the durability of its new security partnerships [2].
Feb 20, 2026 – Congressional documents reveal the United States seeks a nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia that would permit enrichment, fuel fabrication, and reprocessing under IAEA safeguards, potentially opening a path to a Saudi weapons program [1].
Feb 20, 2026 – Pakistan’s defense minister declares that Pakistan’s nuclear program “will be made available” to Saudi Arabia if needed, linking the 2025 defence pact to possible nuclear support [1].
Feb 20, 2026 – Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman warns that if Iran acquires a nuclear bomb, Saudi Arabia “will have to get one,” underscoring the strategic stakes behind the proposed enrichment deal [1].
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External resources (2 links)
- https://outrider.org/ (cited 1 times)
- https://www.carnegie.org/ (cited 1 times)