War with Iran creates the biggest oil supply disruption ever, spiking fuel costs – The conflict has triggered the largest historic oil supply shock, sending gasoline, diesel and jet‑fuel prices sharply higher [2][3][4][5][6].
Recession odds jumped to 35% as crude briefly hit $119 a barrel – Prediction‑market data from Kalshi show the chance of a U.S. recession rose from about 20% in early February to as high as 35% when oil peaked [7].
Gasoline climbed 50 cents to $3.48 per gallon, shocking consumers – Prices rose from $2.98 before the war to $3.48 on Monday, prompting economists to warn of broader spending strain [4].
Job growth stalled at 116,000 in 2025, the weakest pace since 2002 – The economy added just 116 K jobs last year and has recorded job losses in five of the past nine months [8][9].
Economists flag oil $125/barrel, gas $4.25/gal and 4% inflation as recession thresholds – Chief U.S. economist Joe Brusuelas says crossing any of these levels would likely tip the economy into recession, though current data remain below them [1].
President Trump’s “very complete” war comment helped oil fall to $92/barrel; the U.S. is now a net energy exporter – After the war‑related price surge, oil retreated to $92 a barrel, and the United States’ shift to net exporter status cushions some domestic impact [10].