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China’s Strategic Push for Diego Garcia Amid Shifting Indian Ocean Power Plays

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Diego Garcia is a pivotal Indian Ocean military hub The atoll hosts a joint U.K.–U.S. base since the 1970s that supports long‑range bombers, nuclear submarines and U.S. Space Force tracking, giving the West guaranteed access to Indian Ocean trade routes [1].

China has built deep economic ties with Mauritius Beijing signed a free‑trade pact in 2019, provided $1.4 billion in loans and grants from 2000‑2023, and a senior Huawei official called the island a future “showcase,” positioning Mauritius as a strategic foothold for influencing the Chagos Archipelago [1].

Britain agreed to hand Chagos sovereignty to Mauritius while keeping the base After the International Court of Justice ruled British administration unlawful in 2019 and a UN vote demanded transfer, Prime Minister Keir Starmer signed a 2025 agreement granting Mauritius sovereignty but preserving a 99‑year lease for the U.S.–U.K. installation [1].

The Trump administration pressured the sovereignty deal On February 18, President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social demanding that Starmer allow Iranian strikes from Diego Garcia and warned against the transfer, while the U.S. scheduled a 2026 Africa Business Summit in Mauritius to underscore its interests [3][1].

India is countering Chinese influence in the Indian Ocean New Delhi is courting island states such as Mauritius, the Maldives and Seychelles with development partnerships, arguing that Chinese activity threatens regional balance even as it supports Mauritian claims to Chagos [1].

U.S. actions in Iran and Venezuela exposed limits of China’s Belt and Road The removal of Chinese‑backed regimes eliminated $60 billion of debt‑for‑oil investments and cut Iranian oil imports of 1.38 million barrels per day, prompting Chinese analysts to acknowledge that infrastructure cannot replace political stability [1].

  • Sam Olsen, chief analyst at Sibylline, said “Whoever controls Diego controls the Indian Ocean trade routes… there is no way the West will be allowed guaranteed access to the Indian Ocean and eastwards.” [1]
  • Hongda Fan, director of the China‑Middle East Center at Shaoxing University, asserted that “the primary impetus behind the Trump administration’s military actions against Venezuela and Iran is the global power competition… between the United States and China.” [1]
  • Yun Sun, senior fellow and director of the China Program at the Stimson Center, noted that “both Venezuela and Iran showed China that the U.S. has both the resolve and the capability to achieve its objectives.” [1]
  • Cleo Paskal, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, criticized the UK’s handling as “strategic incompetence supported by tactical stupidity.” [1]
  • Xu Qinduo, senior fellow at the Beijing‑based Pangoal Institution, explained that “China is very much concerned with the unstable situation with Iran… and it also helps improve its image by being a source of stability and the party who follows international law.” [1]

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