June 2025 – The United States and Israel conduct a 12‑day campaign that destroys three Iranian enrichment sites, crippling Tehran’s nuclear capacity for roughly two years [15][13].

Dec 12, 2025 – President Donald Trump warns that the United States “would attack any new Iranian nuclear facility” if Tehran restarts its program without a deal [15].

Dec 30, 2025 – President Masoud Pezeshkian posts that “cruel aggression would be met with a harsh and discouraging response,” signaling Tehran’s readiness to retaliate [14][17].

Dec 30, 2025 – Iran declares it is not enriching uranium and that its last organized nuclear‑weapons program ended more than 20 years ago [14].

Dec 31, 2025 – The IRGC advances a program to mount chemical or biological warheads on ballistic missiles, raising regional deterrence concerns [13].

Dec 31, 2025 – Trump warns the United States could back further Israeli strikes if Iran rebuilds long‑range missiles or revives its nuclear effort [13].

Dec 31, 2025 – Iranian leadership characterizes the confrontation as a “full‑scale war” with the West and Israel, vowing a harsh response to any attack [13].

Jan 13, 2026 – Trump hints at “very strong options” against Iran after the regime’s crackdown on protesters [12].

Jan 13, 2026 – Iran’s parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf says all U.S. military centers, bases and ships in the region would be legitimate targets if Tehran is attacked [12].

Jan 13, 2026 – President Pezeshkian promises a “harsh and discouraging response” to any Iranian attack [12].

Jan 15, 2026 – Experts assess that the U.S. weapons stockpile is depleted yet remains powerful, noting recent drawdowns for allies and operations [11].

Jan 15, 2026 – Trump orders military assets to be prepared for a potential strike on Iran, according to the Wall Street Journal [11].

Jan 28, 2026 – Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi denies any request for negotiations, stating “this request does not exist on our side” [10].

Jan 28, 2026 – Trump claims Iran is ready for a deal that would prevent U.S. strikes [10].

Jan 28, 2026 – U.S. warships move into the region as a pressure tactic amid Iran’s violent protest crackdown [10].

Jan 28, 2026 – U.S. Air Forces Central Command launches multi‑day drills to sharpen rapid deployment and sustain operations with a minimal footprint [7].

Jan 28, 2026 – Trump posts “Time is running out” on Truth Social, warning that a “massive Armada” is heading toward Iran [7].

Jan 28, 2026 – Iran’s foreign minister warns its armed forces have “fingers on the trigger” and can respond “immediately and powerfully” to any aggression [7].

Jan 28, 2026 – The USS Abraham Lincoln carrier group arrives in the region, though no final decision on action is made [7].

Jan 28, 2026 – HRANA reports more than 5,800 protesters killed since late December [7].

Jan 28, 2026 – Saudi Arabia and the UAE refuse U.S. use of their airspace; the EU prepares to consider designating the IRGC as a terrorist organization [7].

Jan 29, 2026 – Trump warns “time is running out” for a nuclear deal and announces a “massive Armada” moving toward Iran [3][9].

Jan 29, 2026 – U.S. military presence surges with at least 15 fighter jets in Jordan, carrier‑group ships, drones and P‑8 Poseidons operating near Iranian airspace [3].

Jan 29, 2026 – Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi says Iran’s forces have “fingers on the trigger” and stand ready to respond [3].

Jan 29, 2026 – Deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi says no negotiations are underway despite “exchanges of messages” [3].

Jan 29, 2026 – Ali Shamkhani warns any U.S. attack will be “the start of a war” and promises “immediate, comprehensive, and unprecedented” retaliation against the U.S., Israel and supporters [9].

Jan 29, 2026 – Trump posts an ultimatum on Truth Social demanding a “fair and equitable deal – NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS” and warns the next strike will be “far worse” [6].

Jan 29, 2026 – Trump weighs a major new strike on Iran after preliminary talks stall, citing the nearby carrier strike group as expanding his options [6].

Jan 29, 2026 – The USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group enters the Indian Ocean, moving closer to Iran to support potential strikes [6].

Jan 29, 2026 – The United States adds Patriot air‑defense batteries and plans THAAD deployments to guard against Iranian retaliation [6].

Jan 30, 2026 – Iran signals openness to “fair and just” nuclear talks but rejects any dictation and excludes missile negotiations, insisting talks be “meaningful, logical and fair” [5].

Jan 30, 2026 – Trump says Iran prefers a deal over war and sets two conditions: halt the nuclear program and stop killing protesters [2].

Jan 30, 2026 – Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi says talks are possible but missiles are excluded, emphasizing “mutual respect” [2].

Jan 30, 2026 – Iran’s security chief Ali Larijani meets Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss regional issues [2].

Jan 30, 2026 – The United States schedules a multi‑day air exercise in the Middle East, while Iran’s IRGC plans live‑fire drills in the Strait of Hormuz next week [5].

Jan 30, 2026 – Turkey’s President Erdogan and Russia’s President Putin offer to facilitate de‑escalation between the U.S. and Iran [5].

Jan 31, 2026 – Trump signals a possible Iran strike for 19 days, now backed by a carrier group after earlier firepower shortfalls [4].

Jan 31, 2026 – U.S. naval presence shifts from two carrier strike groups to a single carrier group plus additional assets, maintaining pressure [4].

Jan 31, 2026 – Iran’s armed forces remain weakened after Israel’s 12‑day campaign, limiting missile stocks and command structure [4].

Jan 31, 2026 – U.S. options narrow to precise strikes on IRGC leaders or a broader bombardment, each carrying escalation risks [4].

Feb 2, 2026 – President Masoud Pezeshkian orders the start of nuclear negotiations with the United States [18].

Feb 2, 2026 – Trump expresses optimism that a deal could prevent military action against Iran [18].

Feb 2, 2026 – The United States threatens military action and moves the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier group toward West Asia [18].

Feb 2, 2026 – Turkey arranges a meeting between U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and senior Iranian officials by week’s end [16].

Feb 2, 2026 – The U.S. positions the carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and guided‑missile destroyers in the region as a show of force [16].

Feb 2, 2026 – Trump says the United States is “talking to Iran” about a nuclear deal, warning “bad things” if talks fail [16].

Feb 2, 2026 – Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth rules out immediate regime‑change plans for Iran [16].

Feb 2, 2026 – The EU votes to designate the IRGC as a terrorist organization, prompting Iran to summon EU ambassadors [16].

Feb 2, 2026 – Protests have left at least 6,848 dead and 49,930 arrested, with the IRGC’s Basij militia central to the crackdown [16].

Feb 3, 2026 – President Masoud Pezeshkian states Iran is ready for U.S. talks if a “threat‑free environment” exists and directs Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to pursue negotiations under those conditions [1].

Feb 3, 2026 – Trump threatens “tremendous force,” demanding Iran halt its nuclear program and stop killing protesters, while a carrier‑led fleet readies to act [1].

Feb 3, 2026 – Media report a potential Istanbul meeting on Friday, inviting U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and foreign ministers from Egypt, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE [1].

Feb 3, 2026 – Recent U.S.–Israel strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June and over 6,400 protest deaths raise the stakes for any agreement [1].

Feb 3, 2026 – Iran offers to hand over 400 kg of highly enriched uranium and accept zero enrichment under a consortium, but cites its missile programme as the main hurdle [1].

Feb 3, 2026 – Trump posts on Truth Social about a “massive Armada” and warns “time is running out,” echoing earlier threats [8].

Feb 3, 2026 – Analysts note June 2025 bunker‑buster strikes set Iran’s nuclear program back roughly two years, influencing Tehran’s shift toward talks [8].

Feb 3, 2026 – Sources say Iran’s leadership feels cornered by internal unrest, economic strain and U.S. threats, fearing a tipping point [8].

Feb 3, 2026 – Republican officials back Trump’s hard line while Democrats raise constitutional concerns over potential strikes [8].

Feb 3, 2026 – Analysts argue U.S. brinkmanship may have forced Iran’s negotiation move but carries a miscalculation risk [8].