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Ukraine Reclaims 201 sq km in Five‑Day Push Ahead of Geneva Negotiations

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  • In this photo provided by Ukraine’s 65th Mechanized Brigade press service, soldiers fire an anti-tank missile system during a drill close to the frontline on the site of heavy battles with the Russian troops in the Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine, Sunday, Jan. 4, 2026.
    In this photo provided by Ukraine’s 65th Mechanized Brigade press service, soldiers fire an anti-tank missile system during a drill close to the frontline on the site of heavy battles with the Russian troops in the Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine, Sunday, Jan. 4, 2026.
    Image: Newsweek
    In this photo provided by Ukraine’s 65th Mechanized Brigade press service, soldiers fire an anti-tank missile system during a drill close to the frontline on the site of heavy battles with the Russian troops in the Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine, Sunday, Jan. 4, 2026. Source Full size
  • In this photo provided by Ukraine’s 65th Mechanized Brigade press service, soldiers fire an anti-tank missile system during a drill close to the frontline on the site of heavy battles with the Russian troops in the Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine, Sunday, Jan. 4, 2026.
    In this photo provided by Ukraine’s 65th Mechanized Brigade press service, soldiers fire an anti-tank missile system during a drill close to the frontline on the site of heavy battles with the Russian troops in the Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine, Sunday, Jan. 4, 2026.
    Image: Newsweek
    In this photo provided by Ukraine’s 65th Mechanized Brigade press service, soldiers fire an anti-tank missile system during a drill close to the frontline on the site of heavy battles with the Russian troops in the Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine, Sunday, Jan. 4, 2026. Source Full size

Rapid Five‑Day Advance Reduces Russian Hold Between February 11‑15 Kyiv retook 201 sq km of territory, the fastest Ukrainian gain since mid‑2023, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and AFP. The advance lowered the share of Ukrainian land under Russian control to under 18 % of the country’s total area. ISW calculations show this shift follows earlier Russian seizures that once covered nearly 27 % of Ukraine after the 2022 invasion. [1]

Starlink Restrictions Likely Boosted Ukrainian Gains Analysts connect the recent successes around Zaporizhzhia to Russia’s loss of access to SpaceX’s Starlink after Elon Musk announced “unauthorized use” restrictions in early February. Ukrainian officials praised the move, saying it delivered “real results” on the battlefield. The restriction allegedly hampered Russian command‑and‑control communications, facilitating the rapid Ukrainian advance. [1]

Russia Launches Massive Drone‑Missile Barrage Before Talks Moscow fired roughly 400 drones and 29 missiles at energy and military‑industrial sites across twelve regions, an attack described by Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha as “massive.” President Volodymyr Zelensky reported nine injuries from the strikes. The timing appears intended to influence the U.S.-brokered Geneva peace talks scheduled for the following days. [1]

Geneva Talks Center on Contested Territories Russian and Ukrainian delegations will meet in Geneva on Tuesday and Wednesday to discuss the war’s future. Russia insists on retaining large portions of southern and eastern Ukraine, including parts of Donetsk, while Kyiv argues any territorial concession would be illegal and unpopular domestically. The negotiations are expected to focus heavily on the status of these contested areas. [1]

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Timeline

2014 – Russia annexes Crimea and parts of Donbas, accounting for about 7 % of Ukraine’s territory, a move that later underpins Moscow’s claims in peace negotiations [1].

Feb 2022 – Russia launches a full‑scale invasion, seizing just under 27 % of Ukraine’s land area within months, setting the strategic backdrop for the 2026 counteroffensive [1].

Mid‑2023 – Ukrainian forces achieve their first rapid territorial gain since the war’s start, establishing a benchmark that the 2026 surge later surpasses [1].

Late 2025 – early 2026 – Harsh weather slows Russian operations, prompting ISW to project that any further major seizure of Donetsk cannot occur before Aug 2027 [2].

Jan 1 2026 onward – Russian Army General Valery Gerasimov claims 17 settlements and over 500 km² captured, but ISW verifies only about 265 km² and disputes progress near Zaporizhzhia and Kupyansk [2].

Early 2026 – A Shahed‑drone strike on a Kharkiv passenger train kills at least five civilians; President Volodymyr Zelensky confirms the attack and the casualties [2].

Jan 28 2026 – The United States conditions additional weapons and a NATO‑style Article 5 guarantee on Ukraine agreeing to hand over all of Donbas, including Donetsk, to Russia; ISW warns that such a concession would be a strategic error [2].

Feb 11‑15 2026 – Ukraine recaptures 201 sq km in five days—the fastest advance in 2½ years—cutting Russian‑held territory to under 18 % of Ukraine’s land area [1].

Early Feb 2026 – Elon Musk announces restrictions on “unauthorized use” of SpaceX’s Starlink by Russian forces; Ukrainian officials praise the move as delivering “real results” [1].

Feb 2026 (just before Geneva talks) – Russia launches a massive drone‑missile strike of roughly 400 drones and 29 missiles across twelve regions; Zelensky reports nine injuries and Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha calls the attack “massive” and timed to precede peace talks [1].

Feb 2026 (Tuesday‑Wednesday) – U.S.‑brokered Geneva talks begin, with Russia demanding retention of large parts of southern and eastern Ukraine, while Kyiv insists any territorial concession would be “illegal and unpopular” [1].

Aug 2027 (projected) – ISW estimates that Russian forces could capture the remaining parts of Donetsk no earlier than this month, assuming no major changes in the conflict dynamics [2].

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