Dec 28, 2025 – Nationwide protests erupt after the rial collapses, spreading from Tehran to rural towns and sparking a death toll of 544 according to HRANA, prompting urgent U.S. attention to Iran’s internal crisis[13].

Jan 2, 2026 – President Trump posts on Truth Social that the United States is “locked and loaded” and will rescue Iranian protesters if they are shot, while the White House stresses no troop movements have occurred and Iranian officials warn U.S. forces could be targeted[11].

Jan 3, 2026 – Conservative lawmakers publicly rebuke Trump’s “locked and loaded” threat, and Iran’s Foreign Ministry warns the United States will bear full responsibility for any consequences of U.S. interference[17].

Jan 7, 2026 – Iran’s chief justice declares “no leniency” for anyone aiding the “enemy” amid the protests, directly responding to Trump’s earlier warning that Iran would be “hit very hard” if protesters are killed[16].

Jan 8, 2026 – Tehran accuses the United States of a “campaign of interference” that combines sanctions, information warfare and threats of force, while Trump reiterates that Iran will be “hit very hard” if it kills demonstrators[15].

Jan 11, 2026 – Trump receives briefings on a range of non‑military tools—cyber operations, new sanctions and possible Starlink internet support—for Iran’s security services as the death toll climbs and protests continue[10].

Jan 12, 2026 – The State Department issues a Level 4 “Do Not Travel” advisory, urging all Americans to evacuate Iran as the third week of protests brings hundreds of killings, mass detentions and a near‑total telecom blackout[14].

Jan 12, 2026 – Trump tells reporters he is weighing “very strong options” for Iran, citing possible cyber‑weapons, tighter sanctions and limited strikes, while drones hover over crowds and he promises to discuss restoring internet access with Elon Musk[2].

Jan 13, 2026 – Trump posts “HELP IS ON ITS WAY” and cancels meetings with Iranian leaders, warning of “very strong action” if detained protesters are harmed, while senior officials prepare to brief him on possible “very strong” military responses[9].

Jan 13, 2026 – Senior White House aides schedule a Tuesday briefing on “very strong options,” including cyber and covert psychological campaigns, as Trump signals willingness to rescue protesters if Tehran uses violence[1].

Jan 13, 2026 – Analysts note the protests began Dec 28 with a death toll of 544, warning that a full‑scale strike could backfire by empowering hard‑liners and drawing regional actors into the conflict[13].

Jan 14, 2026 – Former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta urges U.S. action to preserve credibility, while reports cite a death toll of 2,400 and warn that Iran’s regime is unusually weak amid succession uncertainty[7].

Jan 14, 2026 – Top aides hold a lengthy meeting to refine a strike targeting Iran’s security‑service facilities; the administration remains divided, and Starlink begins offering free internet to Iranians while intelligence warns Tehran may target U.S. bases if struck[8].

Jan 14, 2026 – Yemen’s Ansar Allah warns Trump that any U.S. or “Zionist” aggression against Iran will bring “dire consequences,” as the Pentagon briefs the president on possible options and the group underscores its role in the regional “Axis of Resistance”[12].

Jan 15, 2026 – A late‑night Situation Room meeting leaves officials convinced a decision on limited strikes is near; Trump is briefed on the planned execution of 26‑year‑old Erfan Soltani and declares the killings have stopped, while Netanyahu urges restraint and Gulf states push for de‑escalation[6].

Jan 16, 2026 – Protest activity quiets as security forces maintain a heavy presence; Trump hints the killings have stopped, Gulf allies publicly urge the U.S. to avoid strikes, and a carrier strike group moves toward the Middle East as a deterrent[5].

Jan 16, 2026 – Arab allies privately press the White House to delay any Iran strike, oil prices dip, and U.N. Ambassador Mike Waltz tells the Security Council that military action remains on the table; Trump posts about Soltani and appears to back away from an imminent strike[18].

Jan 23, 2026 – Iran’s Supreme Leader orders a deadly crackdown that leaves thousands dead, intensifying international condemnation and prompting the EU to designate the IRGC as a terrorist organization later in the month[4].

Jan 29, 2026 – Trump positions a “Massive Armada” of U.S. forces in the region, reiterates the core demand of “NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS” from Iran, and the EU formally labels the IRGC a terrorist group, while Iran continues shipping ~2 million barrels of oil daily and its rial hits a historic low of 1.6 million per $1[4].

Feb 19, 2026 – Trump warns Iran it will be hit “very hard where it hurts” if protesters are killed, hints a decision could come within ten days with a possible strike this weekend, and polls show a decisive public rejection of further U.S. action, echoing earlier short‑lived strikes that did not become lasting political liabilities[3].