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Iran‑U.S. Nuclear Talks Begin in Oman as Naval Tensions Persist After Drone Incident

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Protests Ignited by Record Rial Collapse and Fuel Price Surge Demonstrations erupted on Dec 28 in Tehran’s markets after the rial fell to 1.42 million per dollar and subsidized gasoline prices rose, sparking nationwide anger over inflation and food costs [1]. The unrest spread to dozens of cities, and by Jan 9 the death toll reached at least 65, with authorities imposing an internet and international‑call blackout to contain the movement [1]. Iran’s Supreme Leader later described the protesters as “rioters” and authorized security forces to use lethal force, a stance echoed in both reports [2].

Government Crackdown Features Leadership Turnover and Mass Arrests Central bank chief Mohammad Reza Farzin resigned on Dec 29, and Abdolnasser Hemmati was installed as governor on Dec 31 amid escalating clashes, particularly in Fasa [1]. Security forces killed thousands, arrested tens of thousands, and shut down the internet for weeks, with activist counts of deaths exceeding 6,700 while officials report 3,117 [2]. The Revolutionary Guard, Khamenei’s primary power base, continued to enforce the crackdown while expanding its control over elite troops and the missile program [2].

U.S. Military Posture Escalates After Carrier Deployment and Drone Engagement President Donald Trump warned on Jan 2 that the United States would intervene if Iran harmed peaceful protesters, a threat that Iran vowed to retaliate against any U.S. or Israeli involvement [1]. The aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and three warships entered the Arabian Sea on Jan 26, and on Feb 3 a U.S. fighter jet shot down an Iranian drone that approached the carrier [1]. These actions heightened regional tensions even as diplomatic channels opened.

Negotiations Shift Toward Nuclear Talks in Oman Despite Ongoing Hostilities On Feb 4 Iran and the United States announced plans to hold nuclear negotiations in Oman, marking a possible de‑escalation after weeks of violence [1]. Khamenei warned that a U.S. strike would trigger a broader regional war while permitting Tehran to re‑enter talks, reversing his earlier refusal [2]. Regional mediators—including Turkey, Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Pakistan, and Oman—are facilitating the talks, though Iran rejects U.S. demands to halt enrichment and surrender uranium [2].

Sources

Timeline

Dec 28, 2025 – Demonstrations erupt in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar over the rial’s plunge to a record low, quickly spreading to dozens of cities and towns across all 31 provinces, marking the largest anti‑government wave since the 2022 Mahsa Amini protests[7][21].

Jan 4, 2026 – Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei declares on state TV that “rioters must be put in their place,” distinguishing them from legitimate protestors and blaming foreign powers for the economic crisis; human‑rights monitors record at least 15 deaths and arrests in over 170 locations[23].

Jan 6, 2026 – Reuters reports at least 25 people killed in the first nine days of unrest and reveals U.K. and U.S. intelligence that Khamenei has drafted a contingency plan to flee Tehran for Moscow with about 20 close aides if the protests spiral out of control[22].

Jan 7, 2026 – HRANA tallies 36 fatalities and 2,076 detentions as protests are documented in 92 cities, highlighting a rapid escalation from economic grievances to nationwide anti‑regime demonstrations[21].

Jan 8, 2026 – State television blames “terrorist agents” from the United States and Israel for fires amid the protests; rights groups count at least 39 dead and over 2,260 detained as a near‑total internet blackout begins, crippling communications[20].

Jan 9, 2026 – Khamenei brands protesters “vandals” seeking to please the U.S. president, while HRANA reports 48 protesters killed and more than 2,277 arrests, underscoring the regime’s narrative of foreign‑backed subversion[19].

Jan 10, 2026 – Prosecutor General Mohammad Movahedi Azad threatens death‑penalty charges for demonstrators as “enemies of God,” and the internet shutdown expands to become one of the longest in Iran’s history, further suppressing information flow[18].

Jan 11, 2026 – HRANA updates the death toll to at least 78 killed and 2,638 arrested across 185 cities, while the U.S. President Donald Trump publicly pledges support for protesters and hints at possible military options, raising regional tension[17].

Jan 12, 2026 – Activists confirm 544 deaths (496 protesters, 48 security personnel) and over 10,600 detentions; Trump says Iran has proposed negotiations but warns of a “strong response” if Tehran strikes U.S. forces, and Parliament Speaker Qalibaf threatens retaliation against U.S. bases[12][13].

Jan 13, 2026 – HRANA reports 512 protesters and 134 security forces killed, more than 10,000 arrests, and protests reaching 187 cities; exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi gains visible backing as thousands join demonstrations[4].

Jan 14, 2026 – HRANA’s cumulative count rises to 2,571 deaths (2,403 protesters, 147 security personnel) and BBC verification shows at least 2,400 killed, illustrating the widening gap between official and activist tallies[10][3].

Jan 17, 2026 – In a rare televised speech, Khamenei acknowledges “thousands” killed in an “inhuman, savage” manner and blames the United States, while also branding President Trump a “criminal” on state media and accusing U.S. agents of causing the deaths[2][9].

Jan 18, 2026 – Khamenei again calls Trump a criminal and cites a crackdown toll of at least 3,308 dead, as the protests begin to subside in major cities; Reza Pahlavi urges renewed street action, though it does not translate into large‑scale mobilizations[26].

Jan 24, 2026 – Government figures list 3,117 deaths (including 2,427 “civilians/security” and 690 “terrorists”), while HRANA counts 5,137 fatalities (4,834 demonstrators, 54 children); material damage exceeds $125 million and the U.S. cites potential mass executions as a red line for further action[7].

Jan 27, 2026 – Families of the dead are forced to pay roughly 1 billion tomans (≈ $7,000) or have corpses re‑classified as Basij martyrs to retrieve bodies; security forces used live fire and pellet guns on Jan 8‑9, and a near‑total internet and phone blackout hampers news flow[1].

Feb 4, 2026 – Khamenei tells President Trump that a U.S. strike would trigger a regional war while permitting Iran to re‑enter nuclear negotiations; he authorizes “rioters must be put in their place,” with activists logging over 6,700 deaths and the regime arresting tens of thousands, as a council of clerics prepares to select his successor[6].

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