Dec 28, 2025 – Nationwide protests erupt after the rial collapses, spreading from Tehran’s Grand Bazaar to rural towns and drawing merchants, students and workers into streets; HRNA reports at least 544 deaths as security forces open fire, prompting a sweeping internet blackout that hampers verification [16][18].

Jan 2, 2026 – President Donald Trump posts on Truth Social that the United States is “locked and loaded and ready to go” to rescue Iranian protesters if they are shot, while the White House frames the message as a strong warning without any troop movements [10][24].

Jan 3, 2026 – Conservative lawmakers publicly rebuke Trump’s Iran threat, with Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene calling it “everything we voted against in 2024,” while Iran’s Supreme National Security Council secretary Ali Larijani accuses the United States and Israel of stoking the unrest [20][24].

Jan 7, 2026 – Iran’s chief justice Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei declares “no leniency” for anyone who “helps the enemy,” ordering prosecutors to crack down hard on rioters after Trump warns Tehran it will “get hit very hard” [19].

Jan 8, 2026 – Tehran tells Washington that recent U.S. statements and actions constitute a “campaign of interference” that violates international law, linking Trump’s “hit very hard” threat to broader U.S. pressure on Iran [18].

Jan 12, 2026 – The State Department urges all Americans in Iran to evacuate immediately as the third week of protests sees hundreds killed, thousands detained and a near‑total telecom blackout; simultaneously, senior U.S. officials brief Trump on a menu of options—including limited strikes on security‑service facilities, cyber attacks and sanctions—while Starlink begins offering free internet to Iranians [17][9][7].

Jan 13, 2026 – Trump meets senior aides and signals he is “looking at some very strong options,” telling reporters he has heard five different death‑toll figures and will act accordingly; Vice President JD Vance urges diplomacy first, and exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi thanks Trump for supporting the protesters [2][23][8].

Jan 14, 2026 – The National Security Council debates a kinetic strike on Iran’s security‑service sites, while Yemen’s Ansar Allah warns Trump that any U.S. or “Zionist” aggression will bring “dire consequences,” and Trump presses Elon Musk to expand Starlink coverage for Iranians [7][15][3].

Jan 16, 2026 – After a week of heavy repression, protests fall silent across Iran; Trump hints that killings have stopped, Gulf states (Qatar, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Egypt) privately urge Washington to delay any strike, and the U.S. Treasury announces new sanctions targeting Iran’s oil‑money network [5][22].

Jan 17, 2026 – Trump tells Politico that Iran needs “new leadership,” labeling Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei a “sick man” and reiterating his demand for “NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS” from Tehran [14][4].

Jan 19, 2026 – Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian warns on social media that any attack on the Supreme Leader will trigger a “full‑scale war,” while Trump repeats that Iran “needs regime change” and says he would strike if he could be sure protesters are not being killed [13][14].

Jan 20, 2026 – General Abolfazl Shekarchi warns Trump that any aggression toward Khamenei will cause Tehran to “set fire to their world,” as the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier group moves westward through the Strait of Malacca toward the Middle East [12][21].

Jan 21, 2026 – Iran’s armed forces spokesman reiterates that any attack on the Supreme Leader will meet a “strong retaliation,” while the carrier strike group continues its westward trajectory, placing U.S. naval power within striking distance of Iran [21][12].

Jan 23, 2026 – Iran’s Supreme Leader orders a “deadly crackdown,” leaving thousands dead according to CNN reports; the EU votes to designate the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization, tightening sanctions on Tehran [4][13].

Jan 29, 2026 – The U.S. positions a “Massive Armada” in the region, deploying the USS Abraham Lincoln strike group into the U.S. Central Command area near Iran, while Trump’s core demand remains “NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS” and analysts outline three risky military paths: an oil embargo, limited punitive strikes, or a regime‑decapitation campaign [4][1].

Jan 30, 2026 – Iran’s risk of rapid escalation rises as the carrier group arrives; Iranian leaders declare any U.S. strike an act of war, while Professor Ali Bagheri Dolatabadi warns the public that a U.S. attack would deepen economic hardship and likens it to past wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and Yemen [1][11].