Dec 12, 2025 – President Donald Trump warns that “the United States would attack any new Iranian nuclear facility” if Tehran restarts its program without a deal, citing the June 2025 U.S.–Israeli strikes that destroyed three enrichment sites; he adds that Iran could have avoided the destruction by accepting a deal earlier, while Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei dismisses conflict fears as “enemy propaganda” [9].

Dec 30, 2025 – Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian posts that “cruel aggression will be met with a harsh and discouraging response,” directly replying to Trump’s renewed strike warnings made during a meeting with Benjamin Netanyahu; foreign minister Abbas Araghchi says Iran’s armed forces have “their fingers on the trigger” and will respond powerfully to any aggression, as protests continue and the central bank chief resigns amid a plunging rial [8].

Dec 31, 2025 – The IRGC advances a chemical‑ and biological‑warhead program for ballistic missiles, accelerating development and potentially altering regional deterrence; Trump warns the United States could back further Israeli strikes if Tehran rebuilds its long‑range missiles, saying “the United States would knock them down if necessary,” while Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu tells Fox News that Iran’s missile rebuild “will have consequences,” and Iran declares a “full‑scale war” with the West and Israel [7].

Jan 13, 2026 – Trump hints at “very strong options” against Iran after the regime’s crackdown on protesters, while parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf declares that all U.S. bases and ships in the region would be legitimate targets if attacked; President Pezeshkian again promises a “harsh and discouraging response” to any U.S. strike; analysts compare U.S. and Iranian defense budgets ($895 bn vs $15.5 bn) and force structures, underscoring U.S. dominance in air, sea and hardware [6].

Jan 15, 2026 – Experts assess that the U.S. weapons stockpile is depleted yet remains powerful, noting that missile munitions have been drawn down for recent campaigns and that rebuilding takes about two years; the Wall Street Journal reports that Trump ordered military assets to be prepared for a potential strike on Iran; FY 2024 U.S. arms sales total $117.9 bn, highlighting the scale of foreign transfers that could affect future readiness [5].

Jan 29, 2026 – Iran’s senior adviser Ali Shamkhani posts that any U.S. attack would be “the start of war” and promises an “unprecedented” response against the U.S., Israel and supporters, calling a limited strike “an illusion” [4]; Trump revives his strike threat on Truth Social, ordering an “armada” led by the carrier USS Abraham Lincoln to move toward the Middle East and schedule drills; Secretary of State Marco Rubio tells a Senate hearing that up to 40,000 U.S. troops sit within Iranian missile range, raising the risk of direct conflict; Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi vows immediate armed response, while parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf calls for sincere negotiations but warns Trump cannot control the war’s outcome [4].

Jan 29, 2026 – Trump weighs a major new strike after nuclear talks stall, posting on Truth Social a demand for a “fair and equitable deal – NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS” and warning that the next U.S. strike will be “far worse” than the summer attacks; the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group enters the Indian Ocean to support potential strikes and protect allies; the United States moves additional Patriot batteries, plans THAAD deployments, and schedules a multi‑day Air Force exercise to demonstrate dispersed combat sortie generation; Saudi Arabia and the UAE refuse to grant U.S. airspace, while Iran’s foreign minister warns of an immediate, powerful response [2].

Jan 31, 2026 – Trump signals a possible Iran strike for the 19th day, posting “HELP IS ON ITS WAY” after canceling meetings over protester killings; the U.S. naval presence shifts from two carrier strike groups in June to a single carrier group plus tracked assets, limiting surprise but maintaining pressure; Iran’s armed forces remain weakened after Israel’s 12‑day campaign that depleted missile stocks; Trump’s options narrow to precise strikes on IRGC leaders or broader bombardment, while political constraints keep a ground‑force deployment unlikely [1].

Feb 3, 2026 – Iran orders its foreign minister to open U.S. negotiations, marking a stark reversal after years of refusal, as Tehran feels cornered by internal unrest, economic strain and Trump’s “massive Armada” threat posted on Truth Social; analysts note that June 2025 bunker‑buster strikes set Iran’s nuclear program back roughly two years; Republican officials back Trump’s hard line, while Democrats call for a congressional debate under the War Powers Act; the timeline suggests U.S. brinkmanship may have forced Iran’s shift, but miscalculation risks remain [3].