2018 – President Trump proposes stronger background‑check laws and a higher minimum purchase age after the Parkland shooting, but the NRA’s objections force him to withdraw the measures, marking the first major policy clash between the administration and the gun lobby[2].

2020 – Trump publicly praises Kyle Rittenhouse and the McCloskeys for brandishing firearms at protests, framing armed civilians as “patriots” and cementing his reputation as a defender of gun‑rights activists[3][5].

2023 – A Pew Research poll finds 79 % of Republicans say gun ownership makes communities safer, highlighting the partisan divide that later fuels the response to the Pretti shooting[8].

2024 – Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem lauds “hundreds of Second Amendment‑loving bikers” who openly carry guns at a Black Lives Matter protest in Sioux Falls, reinforcing GOP support for open‑carry at demonstrations[3].

2024 – Internal scandals lead to the resignation of NRA President Wayne LaPierre, and the organization’s independent‑expenditure spending drops from over $30 million in 2016 to $10 million in 2024, signaling a weakened political clout[2].

2025 – A Washington Post/Schar School poll reports that nearly nine‑in‑ten Republicans favor deploying federal troops to quell protests, underscoring the growing appetite for aggressive law‑enforcement responses[8].

Jan 24, 2026 – Federal Border Patrol agents fatally shoot ICU nurse Alex Pretti, a lawful concealed‑carry permit holder, during an immigration‑enforcement operation in Minneapolis; video later shows agents removing his handgun before firing[4][9].

Jan 25, 2026 – U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli warns on X that “if you approach law enforcement with a gun, there is a high likelihood they will be legally justified in shooting you,” prompting NRA condemnation as “dangerous and wrong” and a surge in shutdown betting as Senate Democrats threaten to block DHS funding[1][9].

Jan 25, 2026 – Rep. Thomas Massie defends the Second Amendment on X, calling the right to carry “a Constitutionally protected God‑given right,” while Minnesota Governor Tim Walz denounces the federal narrative as “nonsense” and “lies”[9][1].

Jan 26, 2026 – The NRA and Gun Owners of America demand a full investigation into Pretti’s death, emphasizing that his concealed‑carry permit made the carry legal and that the incident “does not constitute a crime” under Minnesota law[8].

Jan 26, 2026 – Video analysis confirms agents disarmed Pretti before the fatal shots, contradicting officials’ claims that he brandished a weapon and challenging the administration’s justification for the use of force[8].

Jan 27, 2026 – President Trump tells reporters, “You can’t have guns. You can’t walk in with guns. It’s a very unfortunate thing,” echoing a new administration stance that opposes armed protesters despite his earlier praise for armed civilians[4][6].

Jan 27, 2026 – Militia leader Virginia Kekoas (known as “ICE”) denounces the administration’s narrative as tyrannical, warning that “tyranny will only worsen with time” in response to the Pretti shooting[7].

Jan 27, 2026 – DHS releases an image of an alleged gun belonging to Pretti and Secretary Kristi Noem asserts agents fired “defensive shots” while attempting to disarm him, reinforcing the federal self‑defence claim[1].

Jan 28, 2026 – Trump repeats his “you can’t have guns” comment in Iowa, while White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt reiterates support for the Second Amendment but warns that bearing arms near police “raises the risk of force”[5][10].

Jan 28, 2026 – FBI Director Kash Patel tells Fox News viewers that “no one who wants to be peaceful shows up at a protest with a firearm that is loaded with two full magazines,” prompting backlash from gun‑rights groups such as the National Association for Gun Rights[6].

Jan 28, 2026 – Trump dispatches his immigration “czar” Tom Homan to Minnesota to meet state officials, signaling a federal focus on the investigation and an attempt to manage the political fallout[6].

Jan 28, 2026 – The House advances a concealed‑carry reciprocity bill that would make state permits mutually recognized nationwide, a legislative effort that could be reshaped by the controversy over Pretti’s death[10].

Jan 31, 2026 – If Congress fails to pass a DHS funding package, a partial government shutdown looms, with betting odds rising after the Pretti shooting heightened partisan tensions[9].

2026 midterms (Nov 2026) – Republicans eye the fallout from the Pretti case as a litmus test for their “law‑and‑order” base, while Democrats leverage the incident to criticize the administration’s handling of gun‑rights and immigration enforcement[5].

2026 (ongoing) – The Justice Department continues its review of proposed transgender gun‑purchase restrictions, facing opposition from both the NRA and the Human Rights Campaign, indicating broader battles over firearm regulations beyond the Pretti case[2].