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Norway’s 2026 Totalberedskap Push Meets Record University Cash Surplus and Funding Cuts

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Totalberedskap Year Declared Amid Persistent Funding Gaps The government has labeled 2026 the “Totalberedskap” year, citing more frequent extreme weather, accelerating technology races, heightened NATO tensions and the ongoing war in Europe as drivers for national readiness [1]. At the same time, a study by Oslo Economics and NIFU shows that knowledge‑preparedness lacks a dedicated plan or baseline financing, with real growth in the research sector remaining flat while costs rise sharply [1]. Since the Solberg era, university core budgets have been cut by roughly 3.1 billion NOK, and the 5 % rule forces institutions to spend unspent funds quickly, undermining long‑term resilience [1].

Universities Hold Record 5.3 Billion NOK Unspent at Start of 2026 State‑run universities and colleges began 2026 with 5.3 billion kroner of idle allocations, the highest level since 2014 and up 1.5 billion from the start of 2025 [2]. Sixteen of twenty‑one institutions increased their reserves, with NTNU holding the largest cash pile of 1.3 billion kroner, of which 919.7 million is earmarked for postponed investments [2]. Leaders warn that under‑spending signals tightening finances, threatens staff stability and risks further loss of PhD positions if investment use does not accelerate [2].

Government Launches 132 Million NOK Annual Defence Research Programme The Research Council will distribute 132 million kroner each year for at least five years to a new defence, security and preparedness initiative, funded jointly by the Defence and Education ministries [3]. A 14‑member portfolio board chaired by Cecilie Daae set aside 400 million kroner for competition‑based research centres slated to start in 2027, each receiving roughly 60–80 million kroner over five years [3]. In 2026, 81.8 million kroner will fund data‑driven defence projects requiring collaboration across academia, industry and civil actors, while 11.5 million kroner supports public‑sector and industry PhD positions [3].

Research Funding Declines and PhD Positions Shrink for First Time Since 1960s Oslo Economics and NIFU data reveal that 2025 marked the first overall drop in research spending, staff and full‑time equivalents across Norwegian universities, institutes and industry [4]. Statistics Norway reports a decline in researcher headcount—the first since the 1960s—causing Norway’s European research ranking to fall to 15th [4]. Minister Aasland attributes the contraction to the end of pandemic‑era grants and a modest private‑R&D dip, while announcing a new public‑private partnership linking Oslo University Hospital, SINTEF, the University of Oslo and a major Nordic pharmaceutical firm [4]. Concurrently, PhD stipendiates fell from over 6,300 in 2021 to about 5,600 in 2025, and new doctoral contracts dropped 25 % after the 2023 budget reform removed earmarked PhD funding, prompting an expert panel led by Prof. Silje Haus‑Reve to review doctoral education [5].

NTNU Debates Horizon Europe Emphasis as Budget Tightens Professor Torberg Falch argues that Horizon Europe’s focus on innovation and policy relevance dilutes scientific excellence, warning that reliance on the programme could damage NTNU’s reputation compared with ERC and Fripro grants [6]. Although NTNU secured the largest share of Horizon Europe external funds among Norwegian universities, it received only 145.6 million kroner from Fripro in 2025, less than a third of the University of Oslo’s 467.7 million kroner [6]. Horizon projects are deficit‑funded, requiring NTNU to cover roughly 20 % of costs internally, a strain amplified by recent financing reforms that removed performance incentives for EU grant income [6].

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Timeline

2013‑2021 – Under Prime Minister Erna Solberg, efficiency cuts slash university core budgets by about 3.1 billion NOK, shrinking resources for core research and setting the stage for later funding shortfalls[1].

2023 – The state‑budget reform removes earmarked PhD funding, shifting positions to general university allocations and triggering a ≈25 % drop in new doctoral contracts by 2024; the University of Stavanger also loses 130 FTEs (including 55 recruitment posts) since autumn 2023, raising alarms about research capacity[4].

2024 – Private R&D spending dips, and the government’s defence‑industry capacity roadmap outlines new public‑sector and industry PhD schemes receiving 11.5 million NOK in 2026, signalling a shift toward civil‑military research collaboration[3][6].

2025 – Norway records its first decline in research funding, staff and full‑time equivalents since the 1960s, with researcher headcount falling for the first time in over six decades and the country slipping to 15th place in the European research ranking[6].

2025 – Total PhD stipendiates fall from >6,300 in 2021 to ~5,600, and new doctoral contracts drop from 1,120 to 840, highlighting the impact of the 2023 funding reform on doctoral education[4].

2025 – NTNU secures the largest share of EU Horizon Europe external funds among Norwegian universities but receives only 145.6 million NOK from the quality‑focused Fripro programme, far less than the University of Oslo’s 467.7 million NOK, underscoring a disparity in research‑quality funding[5].

2025 – Funding reforms eliminate performance indicators tied to external EU grants, signalling a policy tilt toward quality‑driven programmes such as ERC and Fripro and away from Horizon Europe’s innovation‑focused model[5].

Early 2026 – The government declares 2026 the “Totalberedskap” (Total Preparedness) year, citing more frequent extreme weather, accelerating technology races, heightened NATO tensions and the ongoing war in Europe, and calls for stronger national readiness[1].

Early 2026 – State‑run universities and colleges hold 5.3 billion NOK of unspent allocations at the start of 2026, the highest level since 2014 and up 1.5 billion NOK from the start of 2025, reflecting delayed investments and reduced operational activity[2].

Early 2026 – The Research Council allocates 132 million NOK annually for defence, security and preparedness research for at least five years, launching a 14‑member portfolio board chaired by Cecilie Daae to steer the programme[3].

Early 2026 – The board earmarks 400 million NOK for a competition to establish defence research centres that will begin operations in 2027, each receiving roughly 60‑80 million NOK over five years and aligning with Norway’s three strategic security priorities[3].

Early 2026 – Calls for defence‑research projects open, with non‑binding sketches due June 2026, final applications due Nov/Dec 2026, and funding decisions scheduled for March 2027, indicating a rapid rollout of the new initiative[3].

2026 – Magnar Bjørås warns that the current funding model “wastes tax money” and likens it to “a factory without raw materials,” emphasizing the inefficiency of building research capacity without stable financing[1].

2026 – NTNU director Bjørn Haugstad calls the 5.3 billion NOK of idle funds a “disease sign,” urging accelerated investment use to avoid loss of research capacity and noting staff‑level risks and a drop in PhD positions[2].

2026 – Minister Kristin Aasland attributes the funding slowdown to the end of pandemic‑era grants, stating that public research financing remains strong but is unlikely to grow significantly over the next decade, while announcing a new public‑private partnership linking Oslo University Hospital, SINTEF, the University of Oslo and a major Nordic pharmaceutical company[6].

2026 – The Ministry of Education’s 5 % cap on “other purposes” spending forces universities to limit non‑investment expenditures, encouraging short‑term budgeting and hindering the creation of financial buffers needed for future crises[1].

2027 (March) – The expert group led by Professor Silje Haus‑Reve is scheduled to deliver its report on the future of doctoral education, assessing how researcher training should meet societal needs[4].

2027 (March) – Funding decisions for the 2026 defence‑research project competition are due, determining which centres receive the 400 million NOK earmarked for establishment and operation starting that year[3].

2027 – The newly approved defence research centres are expected to commence operations, delivering research aligned with Norway’s defence capability, societal resilience and economic security priorities[3].

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