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Chhattisgarh Projects 8.11% GSDP Rise While Madhya Pradesh Targets 11.14% Growth Amid Doubling Taxpayer Base

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State Growth Forecasts Reveal Strong Expansion Both Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh released advance economic surveys in February 2026, projecting robust GSDP growth for FY 2025‑26. Chhattisgarh’s constant‑price GSDP is forecast to rise 8.11% to ₹3,58,293 crore, with current‑price output reaching about ₹6.31 lakh crore [1]. Madhya Pradesh expects an 11.14% increase, lifting its GSDP to ₹16,69,750 crore [2].

Per‑Capita Income Expected to Surge in Both States Chhattisgarh’s per‑capita NSDP is projected at ₹1,79,244, a 10.07% jump from the previous year [1]. Madhya Pradesh reports a current‑price per‑capita net income of ₹1,69,050 and a constant‑price figure of ₹76,971 [2]. These rises reflect higher productivity and anticipated income gains from the forecasted growth.

Sectoral Contributions Highlight Divergent Economic Structures Chhattisgarh’s sectoral outlook shows agriculture, livestock, forestry and fishing expanding 7.49%, industry 7.21%, and services leading with 9.11% growth [1]. Madhya Pradesh’s GSVA split places the primary sector at 43.09% (crops 30.17%), secondary at 19.79% (construction 9.22% leading), and tertiary at 37.12% of current‑price output [2]. The differing sectoral weights underscore varied development strategies across the two states.

Taxpayer Base Nationwide More Than Doubles Over Ten Years India’s Income‑Tax Department reports the total taxpayer count climbed from 5.26 crore in AY 2013‑14 to 12.13 crore in AY 2024‑25, a CAGR of 7.89% [3]. Individual filers grew from 4.96 crore to 11.61 crore (≈8% CAGR), while non‑individual entities rose from 0.29 crore to 0.48 crore. Collection‑cost ratio fell sharply from 1.36% of revenue in FY 2000‑01 to 0.41% in FY 2024‑25, driven by digital filing, pre‑filled returns, faceless assessments, and third‑party reporting [3].

Fiscal Implications Suggest Strengthened Public Finances Higher state‑level GSDP growth is likely to expand the tax base further, complementing the nationwide doubling of taxpayers and the reduced cost of collection [1][2][3]. The convergence of robust regional growth forecasts and an increasingly efficient tax administration points to a more resilient fiscal outlook for India’s public finances.

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Timeline

2012‑13 to 2021‑22 – Uttar Pradesh’s real GSDP expands at an average 5.3% annually, below the national 5.6% pace, highlighting the structural growth constraints that later fuel criticism of the $1 trillion target [8].

AY 2013‑14 – India’s Income‑Tax Department records 5.26 crore taxpayers, establishing the baseline for a decade‑long expansion of the direct‑tax base [3].

AY 2020‑21 – The pandemic triggers a 9% dip in individual filers, temporarily reversing the upward trend in the taxpayer headcount [3].

FY 2024‑25 – Chhattisgarh’s GSDP reaches ₹3,31,402 crore and per‑capita NSDP stands at ₹1,62,848, providing the reference point for the 2025‑26 growth forecast [1].

FY 2024‑25 – Madhya Pradesh’s GSDP totals ₹15,02,428 crore and per‑capita net income hits ₹1,69,050 (current) and ₹76,971 (constant 2011‑12), setting the baseline for its projected surge [2].

Nov 2025 – The government implements lower GST rates, with November’s ₹1.7 lakh crore collection serving as the first full‑month benchmark after the cuts [6].

Dec 24, 2025 – Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath declares a shift toward “fearless business” and cites a rise in GSDP from ₹12.88 lakh crore (2012‑16) to about ₹35‑36 lakh crore today, framing the state as a revenue‑surplus logistics hub [7].

Dec 24, 2025 – The Samajwadi Party rebuffs the state’s $1 trillion‑economy ambition, arguing that UP’s per‑capita income remains half the national average and that sustaining >30% real growth is implausible given a historic 5.3% annual pace [8].

Dec 2025 – GST receipts climb 6.1% YoY to ₹1.74 lakh crore, marking a three‑month high, while refunds surge 31% to ₹28,980 crore, pulling net revenue down to ₹1.46 lakh crore, the lowest in a year [6].

Jan 2, 2026 – Editorial analysis notes GST revenue remains tight, capital expenditure jumps 28% to ₹6.58 lakh crore (Apr‑Nov 2025), and new excise/GST rates on tobacco and pan‑masala take effect Feb 1, with full fiscal benefit expected in FY 2026‑27 [5].

Feb 1, 2026 – The 2025‑26 Budget’s middle‑class income‑tax cut misses its revenue target, leaving a ₹1.26 lakh crore shortfall that forces across‑the‑board spending cuts in capital, agriculture, health and education [4].

Feb 17, 2026 – Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Mohan Yadav tables the State Economic Survey, projecting an 11.14% GSDP rise to ₹16,69,750 crore for FY 2025‑26 and highlighting primary sector dominance (43.09% of GSVA) [2].

Feb 18, 2026 – India’s taxpayer base more than doubles to 12.13 crore in AY 2024‑25, with individual filers at 11.61 crore and collection cost falling to 0.41% of revenue, underscoring a more efficient and resilient tax system [3].

Feb 24, 2026 – Chhattisgarh’s Economic Survey forecasts an 8.11% GSDP increase to ₹3,58,293 crore for FY 2025‑26, with per‑capita income projected at ₹1,79,244 and sectoral growth rates of 7.49% (agriculture), 7.21% (industry) and 9.11% (services) [1].

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