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Western Leaders’ Beijing Tour Accelerates Trade Deals as Trump’s Hard‑Line Tactics Strain Alliances

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Trump’s aggressive policies open diplomatic space for China President Donald Trump’s threats to seize Greenland and his tariff dispute with Canada have eroded traditional U.S. partnerships, prompting European leaders to seek alternatives in Beijing [1][2]. The perception of a “rogue” United States has driven the United Kingdom, Canada, Finland and others to pursue direct engagement with China despite lingering security concerns [1][2].

Starmer, Carney and Orpo secure concrete concessions In early February, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer obtained a 30‑day visa‑free regime for British travelers and reduced Chinese tariffs on Scotch whisky [2]. Canadian Finance Minister Mark Carney negotiated lower Chinese tariffs on electric vehicles and secured cuts to Canadian canola duties, marking Canada’s first prime‑ministerial visit to China in eight years [1][2]. Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo signed cooperation pacts on sustainable construction, energy and animal‑disease management, while German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is slated to travel to Beijing next month to address trade deficits and critical‑mineral dependence [1][2].

EU pursues security safeguards while deepening economic ties The European Union unveiled a proposal to phase out “high‑risk” components in sectors such as telecom, targeting firms like Huawei, even as it agreed to replace tariffs on Chinese EVs with minimum‑price commitments to ease industry worries [1]. EU foreign‑policy chief Kaja Kallas warned of China’s “economic coercive practices” but urged diversification, reflecting a cautious yet pragmatic outreach [2]. European officials continue to balance mistrust over China’s support for Russia with the need to engage a major trading partner [1][2].

Analysts frame the shift as a strategic realignment Scholars such as Jin Canrong describe Europe’s turn toward China as an inevitable response to U.S. pressure, while Chinese commentators argue that decoupling is unrealistic and that China can act as a counterweight to American “bullying” [1]. Western think‑tank director Steve Tsang notes deep mistrust but stresses that Europe cannot ignore China’s economic weight [1]. The combined narrative portrays the Beijing tour as a pragmatic recalibration of Western foreign‑policy priorities in 2026 [1][2].

Sources

Timeline

2017 – Canada’s last prime‑ministerial visit to China occurs, setting a benchmark that makes Mark Carney’s 2026 trip the first in eight years and underscoring the diplomatic gap Ottawa seeks to close [1].

2018 – Canada arrests Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou, prompting China to detain two Canadians in retaliation and sowing a long‑standing strain in bilateral relations [7].

Oct 2024 – Ottawa imposes a 100 % tariff on Chinese electric vehicles and a 25 % duty on Chinese steel and aluminium, mirroring U.S. measures and triggering a sharp escalation in the trade dispute [2][7].

Mar 2025 – Beijing retaliates with steep agricultural duties, including a 76 % levy on canola seed and 100 % tariffs on canola oil, meal, peas and pork, hurting western‑Canadian farmers and deepening economic pressure [2].

Oct 2025 – Prime Minister Mark Carney meets President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of an Asia‑Pacific summit, calling the relationship a “turning point” and declaring, “Distance is not the way to solve problems, not the way to serve our people” [2][7].

Jan 7, 2026 – Carney announces a Beijing visit for Jan 13‑17, framing it as a cornerstone of a plan to double Canada’s non‑U.S. exports within a decade and to diversify away from a trade relationship where over 75 % of exports go to the United States [2][7].

Jan 13, 2026 – Carney lands in Beijing, the first Canadian prime minister in nearly a decade, and begins a diplomatic push to mend ties, reduce U.S. dependence, and discuss trade, energy, agriculture and security [6].

Jan 14, 2026 – Carney meets Premier Li Qiang and NPC Standing Committee Chair Zhao Leji, laying groundwork for a one‑on‑one with President Xi the following day and signaling Ottawa’s intent to balance cooperation on climate and energy with firm guardrails on defence and critical minerals [1].

Jan 15, 2026 – In a one‑on‑one with Xi Jinping, Carney declares a “new era” of Canada‑China engagement, secures a pledge to ease Chinese tariffs on Canadian canola oil and meal, and holds side meetings with Alibaba, CNPC and battery maker CATL to deepen economic and energy collaboration [5][1].

Jan 15‑17, 2026 – Throughout the visit, Carney pursues relief on canola duties, discusses agricultural market access, and reiterates Ottawa’s goal to double non‑U.S. exports, while noting that some tariffs will remain in place for the near term [1][5].

Jan 19‑21, 2026 – After Beijing, Carney travels to Qatar and then attends the World Economic Forum in Davos, extending his international outreach and positioning Canada’s trade agenda on the global stage [6].

Jan 30, 2026 – Carney finalises a trade deal that cuts Chinese tariffs on Canadian agri‑goods and reduces Canadian canola duties, which he describes as making the relationship “more predictable”; simultaneously, President Trump threatens a 100 % tariff on Canada over the deal, calls the UK’s Starmer visit “very dangerous,” and announces a planned Beijing trip for April [4].

Jan 30, 2026 – British Prime Minister Keir Starmer lands in Beijing, announces a strategic partnership that includes lower Chinese tariffs on Scotch whisky and a 30‑day visa‑free regime for British travelers, highlighting a broader Western pivot toward China amid U.S. pressure [4].

Jan 30, 2026 – German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is slated to travel to China in February, and Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo has already met Premier Li Qiang, signing cooperation deals on sustainable construction, energy and animal disease management, illustrating a wave of high‑level European engagement [4].

Feb 3, 2026 – A Western leaders’ Beijing tour underscores shifting alliances: Carney secures relaxation of Canadian tariffs on Chinese EVs in exchange for easier access for Canadian agri‑goods; the EU proposes phase‑out of “high‑risk” tech components while offering minimum‑price commitments on EVs, and analysts such as Jin Canrong argue that Europe’s turn to China reflects a response to U.S. “bullying” [3].

Apr 2026 (planned) – President Trump is expected to visit Beijing, a move that could further test the emerging Canada‑China‑EU alignment and intensify U.S. pressure on allies engaging with China [4].

Late 2026 (planned) – The formal review of the Canada‑U.S.–Mexico free‑trade agreement is scheduled for completion, a milestone that will shape Ottawa’s diversification strategy and its leverage in negotiations with Beijing [2].

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