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Trump’s Private Envoys Push Gaza Ceasefire, Iran Talks, and Ukraine Negotiations Amid U.S. Gridlock

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Witkoff and Kushner Lead Trump’s Freelance Diplomacy Team Real‑estate billionaire Steve Witkoff and former senior adviser Jared Kushner head a private peace‑keeping network that met Russian, Ukrainian and Iranian officials in Geneva and prepared a “Board of Peace” session in Washington, operating outside any official government channel [1][2][4].

Iran and U.S. Reach Vague Guiding Principles, Await Detailed Proposals Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi announced a “new window” after both sides agreed on a set of guiding principles, but the talks ended without a concrete deal; Tehran will send detailed proposals within two weeks, while U.S. officials say key red‑line demands remain unacknowledged [1][2][4].

Ukraine‑Russia Geneva Sessions Focus on Practical Mechanisms, Russia’s Commitment Unclear Witkoff and Kushner joined Russian and Ukrainian negotiators, with Kyiv’s lead envoy Rustem Umerov saying discussions on mechanisms will continue; however, doubts persist about Moscow’s willingness to end the war, and U.S. envoys emphasized “practical issues” over broader guarantees [1][2].

Domestic Political Gridlock Limits Trump’s Diplomatic Leverage The Department of Homeland Security remains partially shut down amid a stalemate over immigration enforcement reforms, and the White House has rejected a Democratic counteroffer; polling shows a majority of U.S. adults oppose another war with Iran, adding pressure on Trump’s diplomatic push, while Vice President JD Vance reiterates that Trump has set non‑negotiable red lines [1][2].

Iran’s Strait of Hormuz Drill and U.S. Carrier Deployment Heighten Tensions Iran temporarily closed part of the Strait of Hormuz for IRGC live‑fire drills, briefly disrupting a route that carries about 20 % of global oil, as the U.S. carrier USS Gerald R. Ford moved to the mid‑Atlantic, delaying its arrival to the Persian Gulf and underscoring military pressure surrounding the talks [2][3][4].

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Primary Data (1)

Quinnipac: 7 Out Of 10 Voters Do Not Want The U.S. To Take Military Action Against Iran For Killing Of Protesters, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; 70% Say Presidents Should Seek Congressional Approval Before Taking Military Action Against Another Country

Published (30 tables/charts)

  • 1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Approve 40% 88% 3% 33% 49% 33% 49%
    Disapprove 54 8 94 59 45 61 44
    DK/NA 6 4 3 8 7 6 7
    Source

  • 1a. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president? COMBINED WITH: (If approve/disapprove q1) Do you strongly or somewhat approve/disapprove?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Approve strongly 31% 72% 2% 21% 36% 26% 39%
    Approve smwht 9 15 1 11 11 7 10
    Disapprove smwht 4 3 1 8 6 3 5
    Disapprove strongly 48 5 93 50 37 57 39
    DK/NA 8 4 3 10 9 7 7
    Source

  • 2. Do you think things in the United States are generally going in the right direction or the wrong direction?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Right direction 38% 79% 5% 33% 44% 32% 47%
    Wrong direction 56 16 93 60 49 63 43
    DK/NA 6 5 2 7 7 5 10
    Source

  • 3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Marco Rubio is handling his job as Secretary of State?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Approve 42% 83% 7% 37% 52% 33% 50%
    Disapprove 45 8 81 48 37 52 41
    DK/NA 13 10 12 15 11 15 9
    Source

  • 5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way J.D. Vance is handling his job as vice president?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Approve 41% 88% 3% 35% 49% 35% 53%
    Disapprove 49 7 87 54 41 56 40
    DK/NA 9 5 9 12 10 9 7
    Source

  • 6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Stephen Miller is handling his job as White House Deputy Chief of Staff?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Approve 34% 73% 5% 26% 38% 30% 40%
    Disapprove 44 8 77 48 41 46 37
    DK/NA 23 19 18 25 20 24 23
    Source

  • 7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Susie Wiles is handling her job as White House Chief of Staff?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Approve 35% 70% 8% 29% 41% 31% 41%
    Disapprove 40 8 74 39 34 45 35
    DK/NA 25 22 18 31 26 24 24
    Source

  • 8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is handling his job as Secretary of Health and Human Services?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Approve 39% 80% 4% 34% 46% 33% 48%
    Disapprove 50 12 86 54 43 57 44
    DK/NA 10 7 10 11 10 10 8
    Source

  • 9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Pete Hegseth is handling his job as Secretary of Defense?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Approve 40% 82% 7% 34% 48% 33% 46%
    Disapprove 49 9 84 54 43 53 41
    DK/NA 11 9 8 12 9 14 13
    Source

  • 10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling - the economy?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Approve 42% 89% 3% 38% 52% 35% 49%
    Disapprove 53 9 95 55 42 61 44
    DK/NA 5 2 2 7 6 4 7
    Source

  • 11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling - foreign policy?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Approve 41% 87% 3% 34% 50% 33% 50%
    Disapprove 56 9 94 62 47 63 46
    DK/NA 3 4 2 3 3 4 4
    Source

  • 12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling - U.S. policy toward Venezuela?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Approve 41% 83% 4% 38% 52% 33% 53%
    Disapprove 52 10 89 57 42 60 44
    DK/NA 6 7 7 5 6 7 3
    Source

  • 13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as Commander in Chief of the U.S. military?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Approve 43% 89% 4% 38% 53% 35% 53%
    Disapprove 53 9 95 58 43 62 42
    DK/NA 3 3 2 4 3 4 6
    Source

  • 14. Under Donald Trump, do you think America's leadership in the world has gotten stronger, gotten weaker, or remained about the same?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Stronger 42% 83% 4% 39% 52% 34% 53%
    Weaker 46 8 83 50 36 55 40
    The same 10 8 11 10 11 10 6
    Source

  • 15. Under Donald Trump, do you think America's moral authority in the world has gotten stronger, gotten weaker, or remained about the same?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Stronger 34% 71% 3% 27% 43% 26% 41%
    Weaker 50 11 86 54 40 58 44
    The same 13 16 8 16 13 13 13
    DK/NA 3 3 4 3 4 3 2
    Source

  • 16. How closely have you been following news about U.S. actions in Venezuela; very closely, somewhat closely, or not too closely?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Very closely 49% 56% 40% 51% 53% 45% 58%
    Somewhat closely 38 31 45 36 36 39 33
    Not too closely 13 13 15 13 10 16 9
    Source

  • 17. Do you support or oppose the Trump administration's decision to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife and bring them to the United States to face drug trafficking charges?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Support 47% 85% 11% 45% 58% 38% 55%
    Oppose 45 7 79 47 35 52 39
    DK/NA 8 7 11 7 7 10 6
    Source

  • 18. Do you support or oppose the United States running Venezuela until it is satisfied that the government there will operate the way the U.S. wants it to?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Support 35% 69% 4% 34% 46% 26% 42%
    Oppose 57 19 88 60 48 64 49
    DK/NA 8 11 7 6 6 10 9
    Source

  • 19. Do you think the Trump administration is providing a clear explanation of the reasons behind the United States' actions against Venezuela, or not?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Yes/Clear 41% 76% 11% 35% 50% 34% 47%
    No 53 17 82 60 45 60 48
    DK/NA 6 7 6 5 5 6 5
    Source

  • 20. Do you support or oppose the U.S. taking over Venezuela's oil sales?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Support 38% 76% 7% 31% 47% 30% 46%
    Oppose 55 13 90 62 47 62 49
    DK/NA 7 10 4 7 6 7 6
    Source

  • 21. Do you think the U.S. actions in Venezuela will improve the lives of everyday Venezuelans, or don't you think so?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Yes/Improve 45% 86% 7% 40% 55% 36% 55%
    No 44 7 81 46 33 54 39
    DK/NA 11 6 13 14 11 10 6
    Source

  • 22. Would you support or oppose the United States sending ground troops into Venezuela in order to control the country?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Support 21% 47% 3% 16% 27% 17% 22%
    Oppose 73 45 92 80 67 77 71
    DK/NA 6 7 5 4 7 6 7
    Source

  • 23. Would you support or oppose the United States taking military action to attack suspected illegal drug facilities in Mexico, if this meant acting without the permission of the Mexican government?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Support 37% 74% 11% 30% 48% 29% 38%
    Oppose 57 20 85 66 47 65 54
    DK/NA 5 5 4 5 5 5 8
    Source

  • 24. Would you support or oppose the United States taking military action to attack suspected illegal drug facilities in Colombia, if this meant acting without the permission of the Colombian government?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Support 36% 72% 8% 31% 48% 27% 39%
    Oppose 55 17 87 62 46 63 52
    DK/NA 9 11 5 7 7 10 9
    Source

  • 25. Would you support or oppose the United States trying to buy Greenland?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Support 37% 67% 9% 36% 50% 26% 40%
    Oppose 55 22 85 58 42 66 51
    DK/NA 8 12 5 6 8 8 9
    Source

  • 26. Would you support or oppose the United States trying to take Greenland by military force?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Support 9% 23% 1% 3% 11% 7% 11%
    Oppose 86 68 95 94 84 87 83
    DK/NA 6 9 4 3 5 7 6
    Source

  • 27. If protesters in Iran are killed while demonstrating against the Iranian government, do you think the United States should take military action against Iran, or should the U.S. not get involved?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Should 18% 35% 7% 11% 23% 14% 20%
    Should not 70 53 79 80 66 73 70
    DK/NA 12 12 14 9 11 13 10
    Source

  • 28. In general, if a president decides to take military action against another country, do you think they should first receive approval from Congress, or not?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Yes/Should 70% 35% 95% 78% 63% 75% 66%
    No 24 54 2 18 28 22 30
    DK/NA 6 10 3 4 9 3 4
    Source

  • 29. In general, do you think the United States should: work with other nations to solve problems or work alone to solve problems?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Work with others 88% 81% 96% 89% 82% 92% 90%
    Work alone 7 13 3 6 12 3 4
    DK/NA 5 6 2 5 6 4 6
    Source

  • 30. Do you think it's in the national interest of the United States to expand its power in the western hemisphere, or not?

    Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Mltry Hshld
    Yes/Natl interest 38% 67% 14% 34% 53% 25% 43%
    No 52 24 76 58 38 64 48
    DK/NA 10 9 11 8 9 11 9
    Source

Timeline

2015 – The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is signed, capping Iran’s uranium enrichment and establishing IAEA monitoring, a framework later abandoned by the United States[6].

2018 – The United States unilaterally withdraws from the JCPOA, prompting Iran to resume enrichment and eventually reach 60 % purity while limiting IAEA inspections[6].

June 2025 – Israel fights a 12‑day war with Iran and the United States conducts airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, causing the Oman talks scheduled for early 2026 to collapse[7].

Jan 12, 2026 – President Donald Trump tells reporters that Iran wants to negotiate as Tehran’s crackdown on nationwide protests kills at least 646 people; Oman’s foreign minister visits Iran to mediate, and Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi claims the situation is under control and blames Israel and the United States for the violence[8].

Feb 4, 2026 – In an NBC interview, Trump warns Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei of “very hard” retaliation over Iran’s new nuclear site, while Araghchi confirms Friday nuclear talks in Muscat and Secretary of State Marco Rubio insists the agenda must also cover missiles, regional proxies and human‑rights issues[10].

Feb 5, 2026 – Araghchi announces the Friday Oman talks will focus solely on the nuclear issue, rejecting missile and human‑rights topics, and recalls that last year’s Oman negotiations collapsed after Israel’s 12‑day war and U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities[7].

Feb 6, 2026 – U.S. and Iranian delegations launch indirect nuclear talks in Muscat, with special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner leading the U.S. side; the United States deploys the carrier USS Abraham Lincoln to the Arabian Sea as pressure, and Trump calls the meeting Tehran’s “last chance” to avoid strikes[9].

Feb 6, 2026 – The Oman talks are described as a “good beginning” focused exclusively on nuclear matters; U.S. envoys seek to add ballistic‑missile and regional‑proxy issues, Iran offers a regional uranium‑enrichment consortium and a transfer of its 400 kg HEU stockpile, but rejects missile limits, and Trump tells NBC that Iran’s Supreme Leader should be “very worried”[1].

Feb 7, 2026 – U.S. top Middle East commander Adm. Brad Cooper attends the Muscat talks in dress uniform, underscoring parallel naval pressure as the carrier USS Abraham Lincoln operates nearby; Trump calls the meeting “very good” and warns of steep consequences for Tehran, while Iran’s FM demands a calm, threat‑free atmosphere and the United States imposes fresh energy‑sector sanctions and a possible 25 % import tax on Iranian‑linked goods[6].

Feb 17, 2026 – Iran conducts live‑fire drills and briefly closes the Strait of Hormuz, firing missiles into the waterway and disrupting a route that carries about 20 % of global oil; simultaneously, U.S. carrier USS Gerald R. Ford moves to the mid‑Atlantic, delaying its arrival to the Persian Gulf by over a week[5].

Feb 17, 2026 – In Geneva, Iranian and U.S. negotiators leave after 3½ hours with only a vague set of “guiding principles,” leaving open whether missiles will be discussed; Vice President JD Vance says Trump can end diplomacy when it “reaches its natural end,” and Iran promises to return with detailed proposals within two weeks[4].

Feb 17, 2026 – Geneva sessions also produce a “positive” framework on nuclear issues, with Araghchi calling it a new window for a sustainable agreement and U.S. officials expecting Tehran to submit detailed proposals within two weeks; the IRGC closes part of the Strait of Hormuz for drills, and Kyiv’s mayor reports over 1,000 residential buildings lack heat after Russian attacks[3].

Feb 18, 2026 – Private envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner lead Trump’s “freelance peacekeeping” team in Geneva, securing a fragile Gaza ceasefire that includes a 20‑point plan, a $5 billion reconstruction pledge and an international stabilization force, while Iran’s negotiations inch forward despite rejecting U.S. red‑line demands and a large U.S. naval armada remains near Iran[2].

Feb 18, 2026 – The same diplomatic team pushes Ukraine‑Russia talks on practical mechanisms, but doubts about Moscow’s willingness to end the war raise the risk of a broader NATO‑Russia clash as winter deepens; critics question Witkoff’s credibility after a leaked transcript shows him coaching a Russian official, and U.S. polling shows a majority of voters oppose a new war with Iran[2].

Early March 2026 (expected) – Iran is slated to deliver detailed nuclear‑related proposals to the United States within a two‑week window following the Geneva “guiding principles,” setting the stage for the next round of negotiations[3][4].

Late February 2026 (planned) – Trump’s private diplomatic network schedules a Board of Peace session in Washington to review progress on Gaza, Iran and Ukraine, aiming to translate the Geneva outcomes into actionable policy[2].

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