Polar Vortex Stretch Amplifies Cold Air Surge The vortex is elongated by warm Arctic waters and cold continental land, allowing frigid air to spill southward. Forecasters expect the vortex center to settle near Duluth, Minnesota by Friday, producing prolonged bitter cold. About 230 million people could see temperatures at 20 °F or lower, with roughly 150 million facing snow or ice, according to the National Weather Service [1].

Arctic Sea Ice Loss Fuels Vortex Distortion Record‑low Arctic sea‑ice extent this time of year reduces the barrier that normally contains the vortex, scientists say. MIT researchers link reduced Barents and Kara Sea ice to wave‑like distortions that stretch the vortex, a pattern tied to severe winter storms in the central and eastern United States [1]. The July 2025 study co‑authored by Cohen quantifies this connection.

Projected Impacts Include Heavy Snow and Ice The National Weather Service warns of significant ice accumulation that could trigger power outages and tree damage across the affected region. Heavy snowfall is forecast for the Ozarks, Tennessee and Ohio valleys, the Mid‑Atlantic, and possibly the Northeast, while lake‑effect snow may lessen if Lakes Erie and Ontario freeze [1]. Freezing of the two Great Lakes could also limit lake‑effect snow in some locales.

Temperatures Expected to Plunge to Extreme Lows In the North and Midwest, average lows may hover around 11‑12 °F, with brief dips to –25 °F to –30 °F near the vortex core. Such temperatures represent some of the coldest readings for this period in recent decades. Residents are urged to prepare for prolonged cold and associated hazards [1].