Trump Rejects Extension as New START Lapses, Raising US‑Russia‑China Nuclear Tensions
Updated (10 articles)
Treaty Expiration Removes Legal Caps on Both Superpowers The New START treaty, signed in 2010, formally expired at 00:00 UTC on 5 February 2026, ending the last binding limit on deployed strategic warheads and delivery systems for the United States and Russia [1][2][4][5]. The agreement had capped each side at 1,550 warheads and 700 ICBMs, SLBMs or heavy bombers, with 18 on‑site inspections per year [4][5]. With the lapse, verification now relies on unilateral satellite and intelligence methods, increasing the risk of miscalculation [4]. No other nuclear‑armed state was bound by the treaty, leaving China’s growing arsenal uncapped [1].
Trump’s Administration Refuses to Extend Limits, Pushes China‑Inclusive Deal President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that the United States will not extend New START, calling it “badly negotiated” and urging a “new, improved, and modernized treaty” that includes China [1][2][5][6]. Secretary of State Marco Rubio echoed the view that any future framework must involve China to be credible [1][6]. A Trump administration official said the president will decide on the treaty’s future on his own timetable [6]. The administration also revived discussion of “Trump‑class” nuclear‑armed battleships, signaling a broader strategic shift [5].
Russia Expresses Regret but Promises a Balanced Response and Dialogue The Kremlin described the lapse as “negative” and regrettable, while pledging a “responsible, thorough approach to stability” and inviting constructive dialogue [2][1]. President Vladimir Putin raised the issue with Chinese President Xi Jinping, emphasizing U.S. failure to extend the pact [2][6]. Kremlin adviser Yuri Ushakov noted Russia offered a voluntary one‑year extension in September 2025 that received no reply, calling the silence “erroneous and regrettable” [6][2]. Despite the treaty’s end, senior officials from both sides resumed high‑level military‑to‑military talks in Abu Dhabi [2].
Analysts Warn a Three‑Way Arms Race as China Stays Out of New Deal Experts from the NTI, Arms Control Association and SIPRI warned that the absence of caps could trigger a rapid Russian buildup and a U.S.–China competition, creating a three‑way nuclear arms race [1][3][4][6][7]. China’s foreign ministry rejected any trilateral negotiation as “unfair,” citing its roughly 600 warheads and refusing to join a new pact [7]. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists moved the Doomsday Clock to 89 seconds to midnight, citing heightened nuclear risk after the lapse [7][3]. Former negotiator Rose Gottemoeller said the expiration benefits Putin and harms the United States’ image [3].
Sources
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1.
CNN: Nuclear Arms Control Unraveling as New START Ends: Details the treaty’s expiration, Trump’s rejection, and expert warnings of a three‑way arms race .
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2.
AP: Kremlin Regrets New START Expiration as Trump Pushes China‑Inclusive Deal: Highlights Russian regret, Putin’s call with Xi, and resumed Abu Dhabi talks .
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3.
Newsweek: Trump’s Inaction Lets New START Expire, Leaving No Nuclear Caps: Emphasizes Trump’s silence on Putin’s extension offer and public opinion favoring a new deal .
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4.
The Hindu: New START’s expiry removes legal caps on US‑Russia nuclear arsenals: Provides technical treaty details, suspension history, and calls for multilateral transparency .
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5.
CNN: New START Treaty Expires, Signaling Shift in Nuclear Power Balance: Reports on expiration, Trump’s dismissive comment, and U.S. interest in China‑inclusive negotiations .
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6.
Newsweek: Russia Issues Decisive‑Action Warning as New START Treaty Expires: Covers Russia’s warning, missed extension reply, and Putin’s call with Xi .
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7.
Newsweek: China Rejects Calls to Join New START as Treaty Expires: Notes China’s refusal to join a new pact and expert concerns about widening arms‑control gaps .
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8.
Le Monde: New Start Treaty Ends, Raising Nuclear Proliferation Concerns: Discusses Putin’s responsibility, Trump’s unchanged stance, and broader proliferation risks .
Timeline
2010 – The United States and Russia sign the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), capping each side at 1,550 deployed strategic warheads and 700 delivery systems, establishing the last bilateral nuclear arms‑control framework of the post‑Cold‑War era. [1][2][10]
Feb 2011 – New START is ratified, creating a verification regime of up to 18 on‑site inspections per year and limiting ICBMs, SLBMs and heavy bombers. [1][9]
2020 – The parties agree to a five‑year extension, pushing the treaty’s original 2021 expiry to 5 Feb 2026. [9]
Feb 2023 – Russia suspends participation in New START verification, accusing the United States of “strategic defeat” and halting data exchanges, while still formally observing the caps. [9][4]
Jan 2025 – Donald Trump returns to the White House, reiterating his 2018 withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal and signaling broader skepticism toward existing arms‑control pacts. [10]
Sep 22 2025 – President Vladimir Putin offers a voluntary one‑year extension of New START’s limits; the Kremlin says it has not received a U.S. reply. [4][7]
Sep 2025 – Putin makes an unofficial one‑year extension offer, which President Trump ignores, later stating “If it expires, it expires…we’ll just do a better agreement.” [3]
Jan 8‑9 2026 – A YouGov poll finds 91 % of Americans support negotiating a new agreement or maintaining current limits, and 85 % of Trump voters back Russia’s proposal to keep New START limits for at least another year. [6]
Jan 15 2026 – The Kremlin reports that President Trump remains silent on Putin’s extension proposal, while White House officials say the president will decide on his own timeline. [7]
Jan 26 2026 – Deputy Chair of Russia’s Security Council Dmitry Medvedev warns that the “nuclear club” will continue to expand as more states may seek nuclear weapons, noting the treaty’s expiry on 5 Feb 2026. [6]
Feb 4 2026 – U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio says the administration will not maintain New START caps without China’s participation; the Russian Foreign Ministry declares the lapse frees both sides from obligations; President Trump posts on Truth Social that the treaty is “badly negotiated” and calls for a “new, improved, and modernized Treaty” that includes China. [1][2][5][8]
Feb 5 2026 – New START officially expires, ending the last legally binding limits on U.S. and Russian strategic nuclear arsenals for the first time since 1972; Trump repeats “If it expires, it expires” and urges a China‑inclusive deal; Russia’s foreign ministry calls the lapse “negative” but says Moscow will act “in a balanced and responsible manner”; the Kremlin regrets the expiration and pledges a responsible approach to stability. [1][2][8][9][10]
Feb 5 2026 – Senior officials from the United States and Russia meet in Abu Dhabi and agree to re‑establish high‑level military‑to‑military dialogue, a channel suspended in 2021. [8]
Feb 2026 (post‑expiry) – The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists moves the Doomsday Clock to 89 seconds to midnight, citing the treaty’s lapse and broader nuclear tensions. [5]
Feb 2026 (post‑expiry) – Former New START chief negotiator Rose Gottemoeller warns the lapse benefits Putin and harms the United States’ image, while arms‑control experts Paul Dean, Matthew Kroenig and Daryl Kimball caution that the end of caps could spark a three‑way U.S.–Russia–China nuclear arms race. [1][4][5]
Feb 2026 (post‑expiry) – SIPRI analyst Karim Haggag warns that the loss of predictability, not just new warheads, heightens instability; the Arms Control Association’s Thomas Countryman proposes a three‑prong transparency regime to curb rivalry. [9]
2026‑2027 (future) – The Trump administration signals intent to pursue a “Golden Dome” nuclear modernization plan, revives the “Trump‑class” battleship concept, and seeks a China‑inclusive arms‑control framework as the next multilateral negotiation track. [2][6]
All related articles (10 articles)
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CNN: Nuclear Arms Control Unraveling as New START Ends
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AP: Kremlin Regrets New START Expiration as Trump Pushes China‑Inclusive Deal
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Newsweek: Trump’s Inaction Lets New START Expire, Leaving No Nuclear Caps
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The Hindu: New START’s expiry removes legal caps on US‑Russia nuclear arsenals
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CNN: New START Treaty Expires, Signaling Shift in Nuclear Power Balance
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Newsweek: Russia Issues Decisive‑Action Warning as New START Treaty Expires
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Newsweek: China Rejects Calls to Join New START as Treaty Expires
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Le Monde: New Start Treaty Ends, Raising Nuclear Proliferation Concerns
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Newsweek: Russia’s Medvedev Says Nuclear Club Set to Expand as New START Deadline Looms
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Newsweek: Kremlin says Trump silent on Putin's offer to extend New START