War Duration Surpasses Soviet Great Patriotic War Benchmark The “special military operation” began on 24 February 2022 and, by early 2026, has outlasted the 1941‑45 Great Patriotic War that Russian propaganda traditionally cites as a heroic standard [1][2]. Kremlin officials continue to use the historic comparison to justify the conflict, even as Ukrainian resistance and Western support prevent rapid advances [2]. The prolonged timeline marks the conflict’s entry into its fifth year, a milestone highlighted by both reports.

Putin Continues to Claim Victory Despite Stalemate President Vladimir Putin repeatedly declares the war a “victory” while avoiding any admission that the campaign has become a costly positional stalemate with limited territorial gains [1][2]. He refrains from explaining the lack of decisive progress, maintaining a narrative of eventual success despite mounting casualties [1]. Analysts note that this rhetoric serves to sustain domestic legitimacy amid growing war fatigue.

Russian Society Faces Intensified Repression and Controlled Polling Over the past four years, opposition parties, independent media, and civil‑society groups have been effectively eliminated, consolidating a tighter authoritarian grip [1]. The Levada Center reports over 80 % public support for the war, a figure the poll’s methodology critics argue is inflated by fear and restricted expression [1]. This environment of repression limits genuine public discourse and reinforces the regime’s narrative control.

Economy Shifts From Wartime Boost to Stagflation Initially, the Russian economy benefited from heightened military‑industrial demand, but by 2026 it is sliding into stagflation, marked by stagnant growth and rising prices [2]. Recruitment challenges persist without a full mobilization, and intensified police‑judicial pressure further strains the population’s capacity to sustain the war effort [2]. These economic pressures undermine the Kremlin’s ability to finance prolonged operations.

International Diplomatic Calculations Remain Stalled Putin had hoped a Trump presidency would enable a swift peace settlement, but negotiations led by U.S. envoys since May 2025 have yielded no substantive concessions from Moscow [2]. The Kremlin maintains maximalist demands, including territorial gains and a ban on Ukraine’s NATO membership, while avoiding direct criticism of U.S. actions in other regions [2]. This diplomatic impasse reinforces Putin’s isolation and the war’s continuation.