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Iran‑U.S. Geneva Talks Loom as Regional Tensions Escalate and Protests Surge

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Negotiations Set for Geneva on Feb 26 Amid Divergent Goals The United States and Iran are preparing for a third‑round of talks in Geneva on Feb 26, focusing on an interim nuclear agreement that would fall short of Washington’s zero‑enrichment demand [1]. A senior U.S. official told Axios the talks could include limited nuclear concessions, while an Iranian official said an interim deal was possible, though the foreign ministry spokesperson rejected that framing [1]. Israeli media reported the U.S. is pursuing a multi‑stage plan that separates nuclear issues from missile concerns [1].

Iranian Delegation Travels to Oman with Response Proposal Senior negotiator Ali Larijani arrived in Oman on Feb 24 to deliver Tehran’s response to the Geneva agenda, meeting Omani mediators as part of the diplomatic track [1]. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi asserted Iran’s right to a peaceful nuclear program that includes enrichment, and officials outlined a proposal to send half of its highly enriched uranium abroad while forming a regional enrichment consortium in exchange for sanctions relief [1]. The plan directly conflicts with the U.S. demand for zero enrichment, a point reiterated by Special Envoy Steve Witkoff [1].

U.S. Weighs Limited Strike While Talks Proceed President Trump is reportedly considering a targeted military strike to pressure Iran into concessions, with Pentagon options that even contemplate killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his son Mojtaba [1]. New York Times sources and the Wall Street Journal described deliberations over a limited‑strike scenario, and the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group is positioned to enter the region [1]. These contingency plans coexist with the diplomatic effort, highlighting a dual‑track approach.

Student‑Led Anti‑Regime Protests Surge Nationwide Anti‑regime demonstrations have exploded, with at least 32 protests recorded since Feb 21, including 26 at 17 universities—20 of them in Tehran—according to ISW‑CTP data [1]. Three violent clashes between pro‑ and anti‑regime students occurred on Feb 22‑23, prompting heightened campus securitization and university warnings amid a 40‑day mourning period [1]. The unrest adds domestic pressure to Tehran as negotiations unfold.

Israel Conducts Largest Hezbollah Raid Since 2024 On Feb 20, the Israeli Defense Forces struck Hezbollah’s missile array in Baalbek, killing eight fighters and wounding dozens, marking the most extensive raid since late 2024 [1]. The operation involved at least six attacks on three Hezbollah headquarters, targeting commanders and “centers of knowledge” for long‑range missiles [1]. Hezbollah responded with a warning that it would have “no choice but to fight on” [1].

Iraqi Militias and Houthis Ready to Join Any U.S.–Iran Conflict Iran‑backed Iraqi militias and Yemen’s Houthis are preparing to intervene if a U.S.–Iran war erupts, according to a senior Iraqi Resistance Coordination Committee source who said four of seven militias would provide military support and open new fronts [1]. Houthi officials met Larijani in Oman and warned they are prepared to attack U.S. or Israeli targets, having recently acquired new surface‑to‑air missiles [1]. Their readiness underscores the risk of regional escalation beyond the nuclear talks.

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Timeline

2015 – The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is signed, limiting Iran’s uranium enrichment and establishing IAEA monitoring, a framework later abandoned by the United States in 2018 [2].

2018 – The United States unilaterally withdraws from the JCPOA, prompting Iran to resume higher‑level uranium enrichment and reduce IAEA inspections, setting the stage for later nuclear tensions [2].

June 2025 – Oman‑mediated talks collapse after Israel’s brief 12‑day war with Iran and subsequent U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, underscoring regional volatility and mistrust [3].

Jan 12‑13 2026 – President Donald Trump tells reporters that Iran “wants to talk” as the U.S. weighs cyber or kinetic options in response to Tehran’s crackdown that activists estimate has killed at least 646 protesters; Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi visits Iran to keep diplomatic channels open, while Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi claims the situation is “under total control” and blames Israel and the U.S. for the unrest [4].

Jan 2026 (late) – Human‑rights groups report that the Iranian security forces’ violent suppression of nationwide protests in the previous month has killed at least 6,941 people and resulted in over 50,000 arrests, prompting a U.S. military buildup in the region [1].

Feb 4 2026 – In an NBC interview, President Trump warns Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that the United States is “aware of Iran’s plans to open a new nuclear site” and will retaliate “very hard,” while Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi confirms that bilateral nuclear talks will occur the following Friday in Muscat; the White House moves the venue from Turkey to Oman after Arab leaders’ appeals, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio stresses that any agreement must also address Iran’s missile program, regional proxies, and human‑rights concerns [7].

Feb 5 2026 – Iran’s foreign minister announces the Friday Muscat meeting as a “different” format focused solely on nuclear issues, rejecting missile or human‑rights topics; the article notes that last year’s Oman talks fell apart after Israel’s war and U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, and regional leaders—including Iran’s reformist president, U.S. officials, and Turkey’s president—express mixed support for the talks [3].

Feb 6 2026 – U.S.‑Iran nuclear talks launch in Muscat with special envoy Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, and FM Abbas Araghchi present; the United States pushes to add ballistic‑missile, regional‑influence, and population‑rights items to the agenda, while Tehran insists on a nuclear‑only track [6].

Feb 6 2026 – The same day, Omani FM Badr Albusaidi says the talks “clarify both Iranian and American thinking” and identify possible progress; Iran signals willingness to join a regional uranium‑enrichment consortium and to transfer its 400 kg of highly enriched uranium abroad, but rejects any limits on its missile program as a breach of sovereignty [1].

Feb 6 2026 – U.S. military pressure intensifies as the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and accompanying warships operate in the Arabian Sea, while President Trump frames the Muscat meeting as Iran’s “last chance” and later claims Tehran “doesn’t want us to strike” [6].

Feb 6 2026 – Admiral Brad Cooper, head of U.S. Central Command, attends the Muscat talks in dress uniform, underscoring the parallel deployment of the carrier strike group; President Trump calls the discussions “very good” on Air Force One and warns of “steep consequences” if a nuclear deal fails [2].

Feb 6 2026 – The United States announces fresh sanctions targeting Iran’s energy sector—14 oil tankers, 15 trading firms, and two executives—and issues an executive order that could impose a 25 % import tax on goods from countries buying Iranian oil, signaling economic pressure alongside diplomatic talks [2].

Feb 20 2026 – Israel conducts its largest raid since late 2024, striking Hezbollah’s missile array in Baalbek and killing eight fighters, a move that raises the risk of broader regional escalation amid the ongoing U.S.–Iran negotiations [5].

Feb 21‑23 2026 – Student‑led anti‑regime protests surge across Iranian universities, with at least 32 demonstrations recorded, three clashes between pro‑ and anti‑regime students, and heightened campus securitization as universities warn against protest participation during a 40‑day mourning period [5].

Feb 24 2026 – Senior Iranian negotiator Ali Larijani travels to Oman to deliver Tehran’s response, reiterating Iran’s “right to enjoy a peaceful nuclear program, including enrichment,” and proposing to send half of its HEU abroad and form a regional enrichment consortium in exchange for U.S. recognition and sanctions relief; U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff maintains the zero‑enrichment demand [5].

Feb 26 2026 (planned) – U.S. and Iranian delegations may convene in Geneva for a third‑round discussion that could produce an interim nuclear agreement, though the deal is expected to fall short of U.S. zero‑enrichment requirements and separate missile issues for a later stage [5].

Late Feb 2026 (future) – The U.S. carrier strike group centered on the USS Gerald R. Ford is poised to arrive in the region, and senior Pentagon advisers present contingency plans that include a limited strike—potentially targeting senior Iranian leadership—to force Tehran’s concessions on its nuclear program [5].

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