Aged Equipment and Poor Management Undermine North Korean Units The National Defense Service (NDS) reports that North Korea’s land, sea, and air forces rely on outdated hardware and suffer from inadequate logistical oversight, eroding combat readiness. Personnel shortages and aging platforms further limit operational flexibility. The assessment, released on Jan 24 2026, emphasizes that these deficiencies are systemic across conventional branches [1].

Invasion Risk Persists Despite Military Decline NDS warns that a weakened conventional force does not eliminate the possibility of a Pyongyang‑initiated invasion, noting that political motivations could override material constraints. Historical precedent shows that North Korea may resort to aggressive posturing even with limited capabilities. The agency stresses that strategic intent, not just force size, drives the threat calculus [1].

South Korean Defense Officials Asked to Maintain High Alert Seoul’s defense planners are urged to keep surveillance and readiness levels elevated, monitoring any signs of North Korean aggression. NDS highlights that an “aged adversary can still pose a strategic threat if it chooses to act.” The recommendation targets policymakers to avoid complacency amid the perceived decline [1].

No Immediate Policy Shift Announced by Seoul While NDS calls for vigilance, it stops short of prescribing new deployments or operational changes. South Korean authorities have not disclosed any alteration to current posture or force allocation. The statement functions as a strategic reminder rather than a directive for immediate action [1].