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Russia and China Ramp Up Intelligence Operations Near Japan, Prompting Defense Scrambles

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Intensified Surveillance by Russian and Chinese Assets Japan’s Defense Ministry reported that Russian and Chinese forces have recently dispatched aircraft and vessels capable of intelligence collection to waters and airspace surrounding the archipelago. The Russian spy ship Kareliya entered Japanese waters on Jan 7, transited the Tsushima Strait and operated around the southwestern outlying islands through Jan 24. Simultaneously, the Chinese intelligence vessel CNS Beijixing moved through the Miyako Strait from the East China Sea into the Philippine Sea, expanding surveillance in Japan’s southwestern region. Both nations’ activities were tracked by Japanese radar and maritime patrols, prompting heightened alertness. [1]

Russian Naval and Aerial Platforms Operate in Japanese Waters The Russian Il‑20 reconnaissance aircraft overflew northern Japan, crossing the Sea of Okhotsk and waters off Honshu while the United States prepares to station 48 F‑35A fighters at Misawa Air Base. Russian Tu‑95MS nuclear‑capable bombers conducted an 11‑hour flight over the Sea of Japan, escorted by Su‑35S and Su‑30SM fighters, as described by Moscow’s defense ministry. These aerial missions coincided with the naval presence of Kareliya, creating a multi‑domain intelligence effort. Japan’s Joint Staff confirmed the flights remained in international airspace and did not breach sovereign territory. [1][2]

Japanese Forces Deploy Monitoring and Interception Measures The Air and Maritime Self‑Defense Forces dispatched fighter jets, patrol aircraft, and ships to monitor the Russian and Chinese platforms, maintaining continuous surveillance. On Jan 23, Japanese jets intercepted three groups of Tu‑95MS bombers, though none entered Japanese airspace, demonstrating rapid response capability. The Joint Staff Office reiterated that the Self‑Defense Forces will uphold readiness under international law and the Self‑Defense Forces Law. These actions reflect Japan’s commitment to protect its airspace without escalating to direct confrontation. [1][2]

Strategic Implications Tied to U.S. Alliance and Force Buildup Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi warned that the operations appear aimed at intelligence gathering and pledged “utmost vigilance,” echoing concerns from Japan’s 2025 defense white paper. The upcoming deployment of 48 F‑35A stealth fighters to Misawa underscores a broader U.S.–Japan effort to reinforce the western Pacific security architecture. Analysts view Moscow’s Pacific activity as a signal to the alliance, especially as China’s surveillance ships increase presence near Japanese territories. The combined naval and aerial maneuvers heighten regional tension and may influence future diplomatic engagements. [1][2]

Sources

Timeline

Jul 23, 2019 – Russia and China conduct their first joint bomber patrol, sending two Tu‑95MS and two H‑6K aircraft over the Sea of Japan and through the Tsushima and Miyako Straits, marking the start of regular strategic air cooperation[3].

2020 – 2023 – The joint patrols expand into the Philippine Sea; in 2022 the pair flies two patrols in a single year and conducts reciprocal bomber visits to each other’s airfields in November, signalling deepening trust[3].

Jul 25, 2024 – The eighth joint patrol flies beyond East Asia, operating over the Chukchi and Bering Seas near Alaska; U.S. and Canadian fighters intercept the bombers, which remain inside Alaska’s ADIZ and are not deemed a threat[3].

Nov 29‑30, 2024 – The ninth patrol introduces China’s new H‑6N nuclear‑armed bomber, capable of carrying the JL‑1 air‑launched ballistic missile, into the joint Russia‑China exercises[3].

Dec 9, 2025 – The tenth joint air patrol circles Japan as part of the annual cooperation plan; Russia’s defense ministry says the mission is not directed against any third country, while the exact number of aircraft remains undisclosed[3].

Dec 10, 2025 – A joint Russia‑China formation—including Russian Tu‑95MS, Chinese H‑6K bombers and the Liaoning aircraft carrier—transits the Miyako Strait into the Philippine Sea; Japan scrambles fighters and tracks the group within its ADIZ, noting the carrier’s second deployment between the First and Second Island Chains[4].

Dec 20, 2025 – Analysts map the expanding reach of Russia‑China bomber patrols into the broader Pacific and toward Alaska, noting uncertainty about whether a second 2025 patrol will occur[3].

Jan 23, 2026 – Japan scrambles fighter jets to intercept three groups of Russian Tu‑95MS bombers (escorted by Su‑35S and Su‑30SM fighters) over the Sea of Japan; no aircraft breaches Japanese sovereign airspace, and Japan pledges continued vigilance under international law[2].

Jan 7‑24, 2026 – The Russian spy ship Kareliya enters Japanese waters via the Tsushima Strait on Jan 7, patrols the southwestern outlying islands from Jan 12‑24, and then heads toward Russia’s Far East, prompting SDF monitoring[1].

Jan 2026 – A Russian Il‑20 reconnaissance plane overflies northern Japan, flying over the Sea of Okhotsk north of Hokkaido and waters off northern Honshu, coinciding with the U.S. plan to upgrade Misawa Air Base by deploying 48 F‑35A stealth fighters[1].

Jan 2026 – The Chinese intelligence ship CNS Beijixing transits the Miyako Strait, moving from the East China Sea into the Philippine Sea and adding to Chinese surveillance of Japan’s southwestern waters[1].

Jan 27, 2026 – Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi posts on X that the Russian and Chinese activities “appear intended for intelligence collection” and that Japan will keep “utmost vigilance” over their military actions, echoing concerns from Japan’s 2025 defense white paper[1].

2026 onward – Japan’s Self‑Defense Forces maintain heightened monitoring deployments, and the U.S.–Japan alliance proceeds with plans to bolster force presence in the western Pacific, including the Misawa Air Base upgrade, indicating continued regional tension and vigilance[1].

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