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Mexico Faces Power Vacuum and Heightened Violence After El Mencho’s Death

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  • A map shows the presence of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel/Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG) in the U.S., according to a 2020 DEA report.
    A map shows the presence of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel/Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG) in the U.S., according to a 2020 DEA report.
    Image: Newsweek
    A map shows the presence of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel/Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG) in the U.S., according to a 2020 DEA report. Source Full size
  • Image: Newsweek
  • A soldier clears a roadblock on a road leading to Tapalpa, Mexico, Monday, Feb. 23, 2026, a day after the Mexican army killed Jalisco New Generation Cartel leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as “El Mencho.”
    A soldier clears a roadblock on a road leading to Tapalpa, Mexico, Monday, Feb. 23, 2026, a day after the Mexican army killed Jalisco New Generation Cartel leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as “El Mencho.”
    Image: Newsweek
    A soldier clears a roadblock on a road leading to Tapalpa, Mexico, Monday, Feb. 23, 2026, a day after the Mexican army killed Jalisco New Generation Cartel leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as “El Mencho.” Source Full size
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  • A member of Mexico's National Guard stands near the charred wreckage of a bus that appears to have been set on fire by organised crime groups in Jalisco state on Sunday
    A member of Mexico's National Guard stands near the charred wreckage of a bus that appears to have been set on fire by organised crime groups in Jalisco state on Sunday
    Image: BBC
    A member of Mexico's National Guard stands near the charred wreckage of a bus that appears to have been set on fire by organised crime groups in Jalisco state on Sunday (Getty Images) Source Full size
  • Police patrol Guadalajara, Mexico, Monday, Feb. 23, 2026, a day after the Mexican army killed Jalisco New Generation Cartel leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as “El Mencho.” (AP Photo/Marco Ugarte)
    Police patrol Guadalajara, Mexico, Monday, Feb. 23, 2026, a day after the Mexican army killed Jalisco New Generation Cartel leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as “El Mencho.” (AP Photo/Marco Ugarte)
    Image: Newsweek
    Police patrol Guadalajara, Mexico, Monday, Feb. 23, 2026, a day after the Mexican army killed Jalisco New Generation Cartel leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as “El Mencho.” (AP Photo/Marco Ugarte) Source Full size
  • National Guards patrol the area outside of the General Prosecutor's headquarters in Mexico City, Sunday, Feb. 22, 2026.
    National Guards patrol the area outside of the General Prosecutor's headquarters in Mexico City, Sunday, Feb. 22, 2026.
    Image: King5 (Seattle, WA)
    National Guards patrol the area outside of the General Prosecutor's headquarters in Mexico City, Sunday, Feb. 22, 2026. (Credit: AP) Source Full size
  • Unrest erupted in Jalisco on Sunday, where organised crime groups burned cars after the killing of drug cartel leader "El Mencho".
    Unrest erupted in Jalisco on Sunday, where organised crime groups burned cars after the killing of drug cartel leader "El Mencho".
    Image: BBC
    Unrest erupted in Jalisco on Sunday, where organised crime groups burned cars after the killing of drug cartel leader "El Mencho". (Getty Images) Source Full size
  • Unrest erupted in Jalisco on Sunday, where organised crime groups burned cars after the killing of drug cartel leader "El Mencho".
    Unrest erupted in Jalisco on Sunday, where organised crime groups burned cars after the killing of drug cartel leader "El Mencho".
    Image: BBC
    Unrest erupted in Jalisco on Sunday, where organised crime groups burned cars after the killing of drug cartel leader "El Mencho". (Getty Images) Source Full size
  • Content creator Marc-André, who took this drone footage in Puerto Vallarta where he lives, described the situation as "heartbreaking"
    Content creator Marc-André, who took this drone footage in Puerto Vallarta where he lives, described the situation as "heartbreaking"
    Image: BBC
    Content creator Marc-André, who took this drone footage in Puerto Vallarta where he lives, described the situation as "heartbreaking" (MoreLifeDiaries via Reuters) Source Full size
  • A member of Mexico's National Guard stands near the charred wreckage of a bus that appears to have been set on fire by organised crime groups in Jalisco state on Sunday
    A member of Mexico's National Guard stands near the charred wreckage of a bus that appears to have been set on fire by organised crime groups in Jalisco state on Sunday
    Image: BBC
    A member of Mexico's National Guard stands near the charred wreckage of a bus that appears to have been set on fire by organised crime groups in Jalisco state on Sunday (Getty Images) Source Full size
  • Smoke billows from burning buses in Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco state, on Sunday
    Smoke billows from burning buses in Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco state, on Sunday
    Image: BBC
    Smoke billows from burning buses in Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco state, on Sunday (Reuters) Source Full size
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  • A soldier clears a roadblock on a road leading to Tapalpa, Mexico, Monday, Feb. 23, 2026, a day after the Mexican army killed Jalisco New Generation Cartel leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as “El Mencho.”
    A soldier clears a roadblock on a road leading to Tapalpa, Mexico, Monday, Feb. 23, 2026, a day after the Mexican army killed Jalisco New Generation Cartel leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as “El Mencho.”
    Image: Newsweek
    A soldier clears a roadblock on a road leading to Tapalpa, Mexico, Monday, Feb. 23, 2026, a day after the Mexican army killed Jalisco New Generation Cartel leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as “El Mencho.” Source Full size
  • A map shows the presence of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel/Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG) in the U.S., according to a 2020 DEA report.
    A map shows the presence of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel/Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG) in the U.S., according to a 2020 DEA report.
    Image: Newsweek
    A map shows the presence of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel/Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG) in the U.S., according to a 2020 DEA report. Source Full size
  • Image: Newsweek
  • Police patrol Guadalajara, Mexico, Monday, Feb. 23, 2026, a day after the Mexican army killed Jalisco New Generation Cartel leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as “El Mencho.” (AP Photo/Marco Ugarte)
    Police patrol Guadalajara, Mexico, Monday, Feb. 23, 2026, a day after the Mexican army killed Jalisco New Generation Cartel leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as “El Mencho.” (AP Photo/Marco Ugarte)
    Image: Newsweek
    Police patrol Guadalajara, Mexico, Monday, Feb. 23, 2026, a day after the Mexican army killed Jalisco New Generation Cartel leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as “El Mencho.” (AP Photo/Marco Ugarte) Source Full size
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    Image: AP
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  • National Guards patrol the area outside of the General Prosecutor's headquarters in Mexico City, Sunday, Feb. 22, 2026.
    National Guards patrol the area outside of the General Prosecutor's headquarters in Mexico City, Sunday, Feb. 22, 2026.
    Image: King5 (Seattle, WA)
    National Guards patrol the area outside of the General Prosecutor's headquarters in Mexico City, Sunday, Feb. 22, 2026. (Credit: AP) Source Full size
  • A soldier stands guard by a charred vehicle after it was set on fire in Cointzio, Michoacán state, Mexico, Sunday, Feb. 22, 2026.
    A soldier stands guard by a charred vehicle after it was set on fire in Cointzio, Michoacán state, Mexico, Sunday, Feb. 22, 2026.
    Image: King5 (Seattle, WA)
    A soldier stands guard by a charred vehicle after it was set on fire in Cointzio, Michoacán state, Mexico, Sunday, Feb. 22, 2026. (Credit: AP) Source Full size
  • A soldier stands guard by a charred vehicle that was set on fire in Cointzio, Mexico, Sunday, Feb. 22, 2026.
    A soldier stands guard by a charred vehicle that was set on fire in Cointzio, Mexico, Sunday, Feb. 22, 2026.
    Image: King5 (Seattle, WA)
    A soldier stands guard by a charred vehicle that was set on fire in Cointzio, Mexico, Sunday, Feb. 22, 2026. (Credit: AP) Source Full size
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    Image: Le Monde
    Le Monde Source Full size
  • A Guadalajara (Mexique), après les violences liées à la mort du narcotrafiquant Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, dit « El Mencho », le 22 février 2026.DIEGO MORENO/CLASOS PRESS/ABACA
    A Guadalajara (Mexique), après les violences liées à la mort du narcotrafiquant Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, dit « El Mencho », le 22 février 2026.DIEGO MORENO/CLASOS PRESS/ABACA
    Image: Le Monde
    A Guadalajara (Mexique), après les violences liées à la mort du narcotrafiquant Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, dit « El Mencho », le 22 février 2026.DIEGO MORENO/CLASOS PRESS/ABACA (DIEGO MORENO/CLASOS PRESS/ABACA) Source Full size

El Mencho Killed in Feb 23 Tapalpa Raid Mexican army special forces and the National Guard eliminated Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes on Feb 23 in Tapalpa, Jalisco, after a tip from a trusted associate of his lover [2][8][16][18]. The operation wounded El Mencho and two bodyguards, who died while being air‑lifted to Mexico City [1][16]. U.S. agencies supplied actionable intelligence but no American troops participated [2][14][20]. The clash left 71 dead, including 25 National Guard members and 46 cartel gunmen [1][8][18].

Nationwide Retaliation Sparked Roadblocks, Arson, and Flight Cancellations CJNG responded with over 250 roadblocks across 20 states, vehicle arson, and fires that torched buses and businesses in Guadalajara, Puerto Vallarta, and other tourist hubs [8][11][13][17][18]. At least 25 National Guard personnel, a prison guard, a state prosecutor’s aide, and dozens of suspected cartel members were killed in the ensuing fights [1][4][6][20]. Regional airlines suspended flights to Puerto Vallarta and Guadalajara, stranding dozens of U.S. tourists [6][11][20]. U.S. State Department issued shelter‑in‑place advisories for Americans in Jalisco, Tamaulipas, Michoacán, Guerrero, Nuevo León, and other affected areas [3][4][6][20].

Mexican Authorities Deploy Thousands of Troops and Claim Stabilization President Claudia Sheinbaum announced an initial deployment of 2,500 troops to Jalisco and neighboring states, later expanding to roughly 9,500 nationwide [17][4][9]. By Feb 24, 83 % of 65 roadblocks in Jalisco were cleared, and security forces reported a return of “peace, security and normalcy” despite lingering disruptions [4][5]. The Security Cabinet confirmed a total of 2,500 troops operating in the western region, with additional forces sent to other hotspots [4][5][9].

U.S. Role Centered on Intelligence Sharing and a $15 Million Reward The United States offered a $15 million bounty for information leading to El Mencho’s capture and designated the CJNG a Foreign Terrorist Organization in 2025 [2][8][14][18][20]. U.S. agencies provided the intelligence that pinpointed the cartel boss’s hideout, but no U.S. personnel were on the ground during the raid [2][14][20]. The reward and intelligence support were highlighted by both Mexican and U.S. officials as key to the operation’s success [2][14][18].

Analysts Warn Power Vacuum May Trigger Internal Splits and Rival Cartel Conflict Researcher David Mora (International Crisis Group) cautioned that a weaker successor could spark internal fragmentation and competition from rivals such as the Sinaloa Cartel [1][9]. Succession is uncertain: El Mencho’s son is incarcerated in the U.S., his wife is jailed in Mexico, and two brothers are behind bars, leaving four commanders to vie for control [9][14]. Experts note that while CJNG’s franchise model may hold together short‑term, the vacuum raises the risk of “total war” tactics and regional spillover into Ecuador and Colombia [9][10][14].

Political Fallout Extends to Texas Border Surge and Trump Pressure Texas Governor Greg Abbott ordered a DPS surge, deploying Rangers, Special Operations, and Fusion Center assets to the border to prevent spillover of cartel violence [3]. President Donald Trump publicly urged Mexico to intensify its anti‑cartel effort, linking the operation to his earlier threats of tariffs and unilateral action [7][14]. The combined pressure from Mexican leadership, U.S. intelligence, and Texas authorities underscores the broader geopolitical stakes ahead of the 2026 World Cup [3][7][14].

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Timeline

2009 – The Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) forms after the Milenio Cartel splinters following the capture of leader Óscar Nava Valencia, positioning the group to become Mexico’s dominant drug organization[19].

2015 – CJNG shoots down a Mexican security helicopter during a confrontation, demonstrating its willingness to engage in high‑profile armed attacks against state forces[19].

2016 – CJNG kidnaps Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán’s son in Puerto Vallarta, underscoring its reach into high‑value targets linked to rival cartels[19].

Feb 2025 – The United States designates CJNG as a Foreign Terrorist Organization, expanding legal tools to combat the cartel and signaling its status as a top transnational threat[11][13].

Feb 22 2026 – Mexican army special forces raid a hideout in Tapalpa, Jalisco, wounding cartel boss Nemesio “O Mencho” Oseguera Cervantes; he dies while being air‑lifted to Mexico City, four of his bodyguards are killed, three soldiers are injured, and armored vehicles and rocket launchers are seized[30].

Feb 22 2026 – U.S. intelligence agencies provide actionable information that leads Mexican forces to the Tapalpa location, confirming cross‑border cooperation without deploying U.S. troops[18].

Feb 22 2026 – The U.S. State Department’s $15 million bounty for information on El Mencho is highlighted by Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, who calls him “a top fentanyl‑trafficking target”[14].

Feb 23 2026 – CJNG launches coordinated retaliation across at least 20 states, erecting more than 250 roadblocks, torching buses, banks and vehicles, and killing 25 National Guard members and dozens of cartel gunmen; President Claudia Sheinbaum urges calm on social media, stating the country is “proceeding normally”[2][11][22].

Feb 23 2026 – Mexico mobilises roughly 9,500 troops nationwide, including an extra 2,500 soldiers to the western region, to restore order and secure key infrastructure[2].

Feb 23 2026 – Governors in affected states declare “code‑red” shelter‑in‑place orders; Jalisco’s Governor Pablo Lemus Navarro suspends public transport and urges residents to stay home[5][22].

Feb 23‑24 2026 – Travel disruptions strand thousands of tourists; flights to Puerto Vallarta and Guadalajara are cancelled, consular services are overwhelmed, and Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand advises Canadians to travel only when conditions are safe[1][17].

Feb 24 2026 – Texas Governor Greg Abbott orders a DPS surge to the Texas‑Mexico border, deploying Rangers and special‑operations units to detect and interdict any spillover of cartel violence, and urges Texans in Mexico to follow U.S. embassy guidance[7].

Feb 24 2026 – Security analysts warn that El Mencho’s death could spark internal CJNG power struggles and broader cartel wars, potentially destabilising drug routes in Ecuador and Colombia; David Saucedo notes the risk of “total war” tactics re‑emerging[11].

Feb 24 2026 – Researcher David Mora warns that a weaker successor may trigger fragmentation and competition, citing 71 total deaths (25 Guard members, 46 cartel gunmen) from the raid and its aftermath[27].

Jun‑Jul 2026 – Guadalajara prepares to host World Cup matches, prompting heightened security measures amid lingering cartel violence and concerns over potential spillover attacks during the tournament[6][4].

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