Feb 2, 2026 – President Donald Trump calls Prime Minister Narendra Modi and agrees to lower the reciprocal U.S. tariff on Indian goods from 25 % to 18 %, a concession that paves the way for a broader bilateral trade agreement announced the next day[4].

Feb 3, 2026 – The United States formally announces the tariff reduction to 18 % as part of a new U.S.–India trade deal; External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar calls it a “growth catalyst”, Home Minister Amit Shah labels it “historic”, and Prime Minister Modi says he is “delighted that ‘Made in India’ products will now face an 18 % tariff”[4].

Feb 3, 2026 – Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw stresses the democratic alliance and development potential of the deal, while Congress leader Jairam Ramesh accuses Modi of “capitulating” to U.S. pressure[4].

Feb 3, 2026 – Trade data for FY 2025‑26 show Indian exports to the U.S. rise 5.85 % to $72.46 bn and imports climb 13.87 % to $43.92 bn, reflecting the early impact of the pending agreement[1].

Feb 3, 2026 – A three‑day Critical Minerals Ministerial is scheduled in Washington for Feb 4, with Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Antony Rubio set to open the event, underscoring expanding supply‑chain cooperation[3].

Feb 3, 2026 – External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar meets U.S. Secretary of State Antony Rubio at the State Department, publicly praising the trade deal and agreeing to formalise joint critical‑minerals exploration ahead of the ministerial[3].

Feb 4, 2026 – Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent meets Jaishankar to discuss supply‑chain security and later criticises the EU for not joining U.S. tariffs on Russian oil, highlighting the broader geopolitical dimension of the partnership[3].

Feb 5, 2026 – Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal announces that a joint statement covering the first tranche of the Bilateral Trade Agreement will be signed within 4‑5 days, triggering an immediate U.S. tariff cut to 18 % via executive order[2].

Feb 5, 2026 – Goyal and Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal explain that India can only lower its WTO‑mandated MFN tariffs after a formal legal pact expected in mid‑March, linking the timing of Indian tariff reductions to the upcoming agreement[2].

Feb 5, 2026 – Goyal projects that India will import $500 billion of U.S. goods over five years, including $70‑80 billion of Boeing orders that could exceed $100 billion with engines and spares, and $100‑150 billion in data‑centre investments[2].

Feb 20, 2026 – Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal confirms that the interim India‑U.S. trade pact will be signed in March and become operational in April, after chief negotiators meet in Washington from Feb 23‑25 to finalise the legal text[1].

Feb 20, 2026 – India joins the U.S.-led Pax Silica alliance for critical‑mineral supply chains, signalling deeper strategic cooperation beyond tariffs[1].

Feb 20, 2026 – Goyal says the 18 % tariff rate will boost labour‑intensive exports such as gems, jewellery and spices, and support demand for high‑tech imports like GPUs, coking coal and aircraft, underpinning the $500 bn purchase target[1].

Feb 20, 2026 – The Commerce Ministry projects that the interim pact will enable India to meet its $500 billion U.S. import goal and diversify its $2 trillion projected critical‑item purchases over the next five years[2].

Feb 23‑25, 2026 – Chief negotiators, including India’s Darpan Jain, hold a three‑day meeting in Washington to translate the joint statement into a binding legal agreement, a prerequisite for India’s MFN tariff cuts[1].

Mid‑March 2026 – India is expected to sign the formal legal agreement that will allow it to reduce its MFN tariffs on U.S. products, completing the two‑stage process begun by the U.S. executive order[2].

April 2026 – The interim India‑U.S. trade pact becomes active, officially lowering U.S. tariffs on Indian goods to 18 % and setting the framework for the projected $500 billion flow of U.S. imports into India over the next five years[1].