June 2022 – The U.S. Consumer Price Index spikes to a 9.1% year‑over‑year increase, marking the highest inflation rate in modern history and setting the backdrop for later political disputes over price pressures[3].

January 2025 – Inflation eases to 3% as supply‑chain bottlenecks ease and monetary policy tightens, contradicting President Trump’s later claim that he inherited “the worst inflation in history”[3].

2024 – Real GDP grows 2.8% for the year, the fastest among wealthy nations except Spain, providing a benchmark that Trump later compares against his tariff narrative[4].

Q1 2025 – U.S. GDP contracts, marking the first quarterly shrinkage since the pandemic, which Trump later blames on a “budget shutdown” he calls the longest in history[4].

Q2 2025 – The economy rebounds with a 3.8% annualized GDP gain, fueling Trump’s claim that his tariffs “resurrected” growth despite mixed data[4].

Q3 2025 – GDP expands at a 4.4% annualized rate, further bolstering the administration’s narrative of a “miracle” economy under tariffs[4].

October 2025 – A short‑term dip in the trade deficit creates a misleading 78% reduction figure that Trump posts on Truth Social, a statistic analysts warn is unsustainable and based on temporary swings in gold and pharmaceuticals trade[1].

2025 (full year) – The United States posts a record merchandise trade deficit of $1.241 trillion, a 2.1% rise from the prior year, showing that tariff policy fails to shrink the overall gap[8].

2025 (full year) – Tariff revenue jumps by roughly 200% to $187 billion more than in 2024, with businesses absorbing about 80% of the cost, highlighting the private‑sector burden of the tariff regime[2].

2025 (Jan through Nov) – The trade deficit rises 4% year‑to‑date to $840 billion, despite lower monthly deficits after an early‑year import surge, underscoring the limited impact of tariffs on the balance of payments[4].

February 20, 2026 – The Supreme Court rules 6‑3 that President Trump exceeded his authority under the 1977 emergency‑law tariff provision, striking down a large portion of his sweeping duties and prompting the administration to promise new, legally‑grounded tariffs[5].

February 20, 2026 – President Trump announces a 10% tariff on all imports, citing the Court decision as “far more powers and strength” and pledging to raise the rate to 15% while keeping sector‑specific exemptions[5][6].

February 20, 2026 – Analysts warn the 10% tariff will raise consumer prices, especially for low‑income households, and note that a study finds the duties hurt China’s economy three times more than the United States[6].

February 21, 2026 – BEA data show the trade deficit falls 0.2% overall in 2025 and Q4 2025 GDP expands at a modest 1.4% annualized rate, contradicting Trump’s claims of 5.4%‑5.6% growth and highlighting the slowdown under his tariff agenda[1].

February 21, 2026 – A Le Monde analysis reports U.S. GDP growth slows to 1.4% in Q4 2025 and 2.2% for the full year, while the Commerce Department estimates the October‑November 2025 shutdown cuts growth by one percentage point; Trump accuses Democrats of causing a two‑point loss[7].

February 24, 2026 – The 10% tariff takes effect, covering $1.2 trillion of imports and imposing an average household cost of about $700 in 2026; Customs stops collecting the previously illegal duties and begins enforcing the new rate[5].

February 24, 2026 – July 2026 (150 days) – The tariff is set to expire after 150 days unless Congress extends it, while Trump signals a plan to increase the rate to 15% and hints at using licensing fees or “terrible” actions against non‑compliant countries[5][6].

Future (2026 onward) – The administration eyes additional duties under Section 232 after a Commerce Department investigation, and a pending Supreme Court case could invalidate past tariffs and trigger refunds for firms that already paid them[2][6].

Future (2026) – JPMorgan projects the share of tariff costs passed to consumers to rise from roughly 20% to a higher proportion as businesses shift the burden, indicating growing price pressure on shoppers[2].

Future (2026) – Polls show broad public opposition, with six‑in‑ten Americans believing Trump has gone too far and 76% expecting higher consumer‑goods costs from the tariffs[6].