June 2025 – The United States conducts F‑35 strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, which Tehran condemns as a violation of sovereignty and which heightens regional tensions ahead of later naval exercises [3].

Dec 4‑5, 2025 – The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launches the two‑day “Shahid Mohammad Nazeri” naval drill across the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Sea of Oman, showcasing missile, drone, surveillance and electronic‑warfare systems; during the exercise IRGC units issue a direct warning to nearby U.S. warships, threatening decisive action if they interfere [3].

Dec 5, 2025 – The Gulf Cooperation Council summit backs the United Arab Emirates’ claims to Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb and Abu Musa, prompting Tehran to warn Gulf states against testing its red lines and to use the naval drill to reassure regional allies [3].

Jan 31, 2026 – U.S. Central Command publicly warns Iran’s IRGC that any “unsafe behavior” near American forces in the Strait of Hormuz could trigger escalation, citing overflights, low‑altitude armed flights and high‑speed boat approaches as prohibited [2].

Feb 1‑2, 2026 – Iran carries out a two‑day live‑fire naval exercise in the Strait of Hormuz, firing missiles and conducting drills in a corridor that handles roughly one‑fifth of global oil shipments; IRGC Army Chief Amir Hatami affirms a high level of defensive readiness, while Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi urges the United States to “set aside their threats” and resume negotiations [2].

Feb 4, 2026 – A U.S. Navy fighter shoots down an Iranian drone that approaches the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln in the Strait of Hormuz, marking a sharp escalation in aerial confrontations between the two sides [5].

Feb 17, 2026 – Iran announces a brief closure of the Strait of Hormuz for live‑fire drills, firing missiles into the waterway and shutting it for several hours; Geneva nuclear talks continue with Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi expressing optimism about a “new window” for agreement, while President Donald Trump, speaking on Air Force One, reiterates that Iran “remains fully prepared to defend itself” without mentioning the closure [4].

Feb 17, 2026 – Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warns the United States that even “the strongest army in the world might sometimes receive such a slap that it cannot get back on its feet,” cautioning against premature military pressure in the negotiations [4].

Feb 17, 2026 – U.S. oil markets react modestly to the talks, with U.S. crude falling 1.3% to $62.06 / bbl and Brent dropping 2.3% to $67.03 / bbl, reversing earlier gains tied to the U.S. military buildup [4].

Feb 17, 2026 – The carrier strike group centered on USS Gerald R. Ford departs the Caribbean for the mid‑Atlantic, delaying its arrival to the Persian Gulf by more than a week after earlier deployments aimed at deterring Iran [4].

Feb 18, 2026 – Iran temporarily shuts parts of the Strait of Hormuz, a route that moves about 20% of world oil, marking a rare escalation; the move echoes limited closures during the 1980s Iran‑Iraq war and the 12‑day Iran‑Israel‑U.S. conflict but represents the first announced full‑scale shutdown since recent U.S. threats [5].

Feb 18, 2026 – Supreme Leader Khamenei repeats his warning that the world’s strongest army could receive a crippling “slap,” underscoring Tehran’s readiness to target U.S. interests if pressed [5].

Feb 19, 2026 – Iran and Russia conduct joint naval drills off southern Iran and in the Indian Ocean, simulating a hijacked‑ship rescue with missile‑launching warships, helicopters and special‑operations teams, demonstrating deepening military cooperation [1].

Feb 19, 2026 – Earlier in the week Iran briefly closes the Strait of Hormuz for safety during the joint drills, highlighting the waterway’s strategic importance for global oil flow [1].

Feb 19, 2026 – The United States positions two aircraft carriers, USS Gerald R. Ford and USS Abraham Lincoln, along with dozens of warships and advanced fighter jets, near the region, signaling readiness for possible operations [1].

Feb 19, 2026 – Diplomatic talks in Geneva stall; White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt notes President Trump still prefers diplomacy but acknowledges “many reasons and arguments that one could make for a strike against Iran” [1].

Feb 19, 2026 – Supreme Leader Khamenei warns that any U.S. force could be hit so hard it “cannot even get back on its feet,” pledging retaliation against American bases if attacked [1].

Feb 19, 2026 – Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov cautions that the situation is “playing with fire,” while Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov describes the tension as “unprecedented” but expresses hope for a U.S.–Iran agreement [1].