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Ukraine Raises Monthly Russian Casualty Target as Drone Strikes Hit Civilians

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  • The miners were travelling in a bus when it was hit by a drone, officials say
    The miners were travelling in a bus when it was hit by a drone, officials say
    Image: BBC
    The miners were travelling in a bus when it was hit by a drone, officials say (Armed Forces of Ukraine/Telegram) Source Full size
  • A woman gathers her belongings from a room in the maternity hospital after the strike
    A woman gathers her belongings from a room in the maternity hospital after the strike
    Image: BBC
    A woman gathers her belongings from a room in the maternity hospital after the strike (EPA) Source Full size
  • No deaths were reported after the strike at the hospital on Sunday
    No deaths were reported after the strike at the hospital on Sunday
    Image: BBC
    No deaths were reported after the strike at the hospital on Sunday (Reuters) Source Full size

New Attrition Goal Set Amid Severe Manpower Shortages President Volodymyr Zelensky told the newly appointed defence minister that Ukraine will aim to inflict 50,000 Russian fatalities or serious injuries each month, up from the 35,000 recorded in December 2025 [1]. A CSIS analysis released this week puts total Russian losses since February 2022 at roughly 1.2 million personnel killed, wounded or missing, the highest for a major power since World II, while Ukrainian casualties are estimated between 500,000 and 600,000 [1]. Ukraine’s front line suffers from severe manpower gaps, with fewer than ten infantry soldiers per kilometre along its 745‑mile front and only about 30 % of that line supported by drone operators, compounded by an estimated 2 million draft‑dodgers and 200,000 deserters [1]. Analysts note that Russia has closed the drone technology gap by fielding fiber‑optic drones immune to Ukrainian electronic‑warfare measures, eroding Kyiv’s earlier aerial advantage [1].

Feb 1 Drone Attacks Kill Miners and Injure Maternity Patients On 1 February Russian Shahed drones struck a DTEK bus near Ternivka in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, killing at least 12 miners and wounding between 15 and 16 civilians, an attack described by Ukrainian officials as a “demonstrative crime” [2][3][4]. The same day a Russian drone hit the reception area of Maternity Hospital No. 3 in Zaporizhzhia while two women were in labour, injuring six people and prompting the regional governor to label the strike as evidence of a war against civilians [2][3]. Ukrainian energy minister Denys Shmyhal called the bus attack “cynical and deliberate,” while President Zelensky condemned it as part of Russia’s escalation of attacks on non‑military targets [4].

Starlink Blocking Reduces Russian Long‑Range Drone Capabilities SpaceX CEO Elon Musk announced on 1 February that, at Kyiv’s request, SpaceX had taken “effective” steps to block Russian forces from using Starlink terminals on long‑range drones, a move Ukrainian defence minister Mykhailo Fedorov said had already produced “real results” [2][3]. Russian units, including the Rubikon Center, had been using Starlink to guide BM‑35 and Molniya‑2 FPV drones for strikes up to 90 km, a capability that was reportedly disrupted after the signal‑blocking measures were applied [2][3]. Ukraine continues to audit its own Starlink users to prevent collateral damage while limiting the technology to verified military operations, a policy echoed in a later CNN report on 1 February [4].

Diplomacy and Northern Buildup Shape Russia’s Strategic Posture President Zelensky confirmed that the next trilateral Ukraine‑Russia‑United States peace talks will be held in Abu Dhabi on 4‑5 February, after the Kremlin pushed the original 1 February meeting to mid‑week [2][3][4]. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov used the same period to urge the United States to negotiate only with Moscow, framing the dialogue as a bilateral economic project and attempting to extract concessions on Ukraine [2]. Satellite imagery released by Finnish broadcaster Yle showed extensive construction at the former Rybka base in Karelia and a new garrison in Murmansk, indicating a broader Russian military buildup along its northern frontier ahead of potential NATO confrontations [2]. Belarusian “balloon‑like” objects entered Polish and Lithuanian airspace in late January, a pattern described by ISW as part of Russia’s Phase Zero information‑psychological strategy preceding a possible NATO‑Russia war [2].

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Timeline

Dec 31, 2025 – Russian drones strike Odesa, injuring six including a toddler, damaging two DTEK facilities and ten regional substations; President Vladimir Putin declares in his New Year’s address that Russia will prevail, and the UN reports over 2,300 Ukrainian civilians killed and more than 11,000 injured since January [5].

Late 2025 – Romania and Croatia join the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List, raising the fund to about $4.3 billion with $1.5 billion contributed in December, while former US envoy Steve Witkoff, Marco Rubio and Jared Kushner discuss advancing the European peace process with allies [5].

Jan 27, 2026 – More than 50 Russian drones, including the new jet‑powered Geran‑5 (90 kg warhead, ~1,000 km range), bombard Odesa, injuring 23 (two children, a pregnant woman), hitting the power grid and five apartment blocks, prompting President Volodymyr Zelensky to demand faster US diplomatic action and additional sanctions ahead of talks slated for Feb 1 [4].

Jan 27‑28, 2026 – Belarus launches a series of balloon‑like objects into Polish and Lithuanian airspace (42 balloons over Lithuania on Jan 27‑28), testing NATO air‑defence reactions as part of Russia’s “Phase Zero” informational‑psychological strategy [6].

Jan 31‑Feb 1, 2026 – Russia pauses attacks on civilian centres and energy infrastructure during an extreme cold snap, then the pause expires on Sunday; Russian drones strike a maternity hospital in Zaporizhzhia injuring six and a DTEK miners’ bus near Ternivka killing at least 12 and wounding 16, which Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal calls “cynical and deliberate” and President Zelensky labels a “demonstrative crime” [1][3][6].

Feb 1, 2026 – At Ukraine’s request SpaceX blocks unverified Starlink terminals to prevent Russian use on long‑range drones; Elon Musk says the steps “appear to have worked,” and Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov thanks him as “a true friend of the Ukrainian people,” noting “real results” [1][6].

Feb 1, 2026 – Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov tells journalist Pavel Zarubin that the United States should negotiate only with Russia, using the upcoming Abu Dhabi trilateral meeting as leverage in the Kremlin’s broader strategy toward the Trump administration [6].

Feb 1, 2026 – President Zelensky confirms that the trilateral Ukraine‑Russia‑US talks shift to Feb 4‑5 in Abu Dhabi, moving from the originally planned Feb 1 session, and urges the United States to accelerate diplomatic efforts [1][3].

Feb 2, 2026 – Russia expands military facilities near the Finnish border, constructing a large airfield at the former Rybka base in Karelia and a new garrison town in Murmansk, continuing the 2024 restructuring of its Western Military District into Leningrad and Moscow districts, which ISW warns may prepare forces for future NATO conflict [6].

Feb 3, 2026 – President Zelensky pushes Ukraine’s new defense minister to raise the target for Russian casualties to 50,000 per month after December saw 35,000 Russian soldiers killed or seriously wounded; a CSIS analysis estimates 1.2 million Russian personnel killed, wounded or missing—the highest loss for a major power since World II—while Ukrainian losses total 500‑600 k [2].

Feb 3, 2026 – Analysts warn that Ukraine’s “e‑points” incentive scheme, which rewards units for each Russian killed, may encourage shallow drone strikes on infantry rather than deeper attacks on logistics, potentially weakening operational depth as Russia’s fiber‑optic drones become immune to Ukrainian electronic‑warfare measures [2].

Feb 3, 2026 – Manpower shortages strain Ukraine’s front line, with fewer than ten infantry soldiers per kilometre of its 745‑mile front and only 30 % covered by drone operators, while 2 million draft‑dodgers and 200,000 deserters undermine Kyiv’s attrition strategy [2].

Feb 3, 2026 – The Institute for the Study of War projects that Russia would need roughly 18 months to capture the remaining parts of the Donetsk region, reinforcing Ukraine’s refusal to trade territory for peace and highlighting Donetsk as a focal point of Kyiv’s attrition plan [2].

Feb 4‑5, 2026 (planned) – The United States, Ukraine and Russia are scheduled to hold trilateral peace talks in Abu Dhabi, focusing on Ukraine’s ceding of territory and the status of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant as part of ongoing diplomatic efforts [1][3].

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