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Cuba Seeks Dialogue as U.S. Escalates Oil Tariffs, Mexico Oil Flows Falter

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Cuban officials invite dialogue while rejecting regime‑change talks Deputy foreign minister Carlos Fernández de Cossío told CNN Havana is prepared for “meaningful” talks with Washington but will not discuss its constitutional system, mirroring what he says the U.S. refuses to discuss about its own politics [1]. He denied any aggression toward the United States and blamed existing U.S. sanctions for the island’s blackouts and fuel shortages [1]. The statement follows a U.S. operation that captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in January and killed more than 30 Cuban security personnel, prompting Cuba to increase military drills [1][6].

Trump administration leverages oil tariffs to pressure Havana President Donald Trump announced an executive order that would levy tariffs on any goods from countries supplying oil to Cuba, linking relief to the return of property confiscated from Cuban exiles [1][5][3]. The order targets Mexico’s PEMEX shipments, which have already dropped from roughly 20,000 barrels per day (Jan‑Sep 2025) to about 7,000 barrels per day after Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s September visit [2][5][3]. Trump warned that a full embargo could be avoided only if Cuba accepts a “conditional deal,” while also predicting the Cuban regime’s collapse [1][3].

Mexico’s oil role becomes flashpoint amid U.S. sanctions Mexico has become Cuba’s primary oil supplier after Venezuela halted shipments, delivering nearly 20,000 barrels daily in early 2025 [2][5]. President Claudia Sheinbaum announced humanitarian food aid for Cuba and said PEMEX had merely “temporarily paused” some shipments, emphasizing that contracts—not politics—determine delivery timing [2][5]. She warned the U.S. tariff could trigger a humanitarian crisis, while the Trump administration pressed Mexico to halt oil flows, even as U.S. diplomats warned of an imminent naval blockade [6][3].

Cuban society adapts to energy crisis and rising tension Chronic blackouts and fuel shortages have driven citizens to install solar systems, farm, and protest with torch‑marches, while the government staged tank and helicopter drills and called for “countrywide war” against imperialist aggression [4][6]. Energy analyst Jorge Piñón cautioned that a complete oil cutoff would cause economic collapse, likening the situation to an approaching hurricane [6]. Despite the pressure, Cuban officials maintain that the island poses no terrorism risk and blame U.S. sanctions for the hardships [1].

Sources

Timeline

1961 – The Bay of Pigs invasion remains the benchmark for Cuban combat losses, a reference point for the 32 Cuban fatalities reported after the 2026 U.S. raid [4].

Jan 3, 2026 – U.S. Delta Force troops capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in Caracas, killing 32 Cuban military and intelligence personnel who were protecting him, marking the deadliest U.S.–Cuban clash since the Cold War [4][13].

Jan 5, 2026 – Cuba publishes the names, ranks and ages of the 32 fallen officers, declares two days of national mourning and lowers flags at dawn to honor the combat deaths [24][25].

Jan 6, 2026 – Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez posts that Cubans are “prepared to give their lives” to resist U.S. intervention, and the Organization of American States convenes an emergency meeting to debate the raid [24].

Jan 7‑8, 2026 – Venezuela holds a military funeral for at least 24 officers killed in the U.S. operation and Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello claims the raid caused over 100 deaths, underscoring the high human cost [26].

Jan 10, 2026 – Venezuela endures a tense week of protests, armed civilian groups and public funerals while the U.S. announces it will oversee Venezuelan oil exports as part of a broader regional strategy [23].

Jan 11, 2026 – President Donald Trump posts that there will be “no more oil or money” flowing to Cuba and urges Havana to strike a deal “before it is too late,” linking the threat directly to the Maduro capture [12][22].

Jan 12, 2026 – President Miguel Díaz‑Canel states on X that Cuba has no talks with the United States beyond migration issues, but affirms openness to “serious dialogue on sovereign equality, mutual respect and international law” [11][21].

Jan 15, 2026 – The remains of the 32 Cuban officers arrive in Havana for formal military ceremonies; thousands line the streets and a protest is scheduled outside the U.S. embassy [2][20].

Jan 16, 2026 – A funeral cortege passes through Havana with Raul Castro and Díaz‑Canel attending; the Cuban government confirms the presence of its intelligence officers in Venezuela, reframing the bilateral alliance [1].

Jan 28, 2026 – Trump tells reporters in Iowa that Cuba is “very close to failing” as Venezuelan oil and money cease, warning of an imminent economic collapse [10].

Jan 29, 2026 – U.S. diplomats warn that “nothing is getting in” and the State Department mulls the first naval blockade of Cuba since 1962; Mexico’s President Sheinbaum announces a temporary halt to oil shipments to Havana [7].

Jan 30, 2026 – Trump signs an executive order imposing tariffs on goods from any country that supplies oil to Cuba, explicitly targeting Mexico, while Cubans increasingly adopt solar power and small‑scale farming to cope with fuel shortages [17][16].

Feb 1, 2026 – Trump declares the United States is “starting to talk to Cuba” while continuing oil restrictions; Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum pledges humanitarian food aid to Cuba amid the oil‑supply crisis [15][14].

Feb 5, 2026 – Deputy Foreign Minister Carlos Fernández de Cossío says Cuba is ready for “meaningful” dialogue but rejects any U.S. regime‑change talks, blaming U.S. sanctions for the island’s blackouts and fuel woes [6].

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