Mid‑1980s – Iran mines the Persian Gulf during the “Tanker War,” establishing a pattern of maritime disruption that later includes a near‑miss with the USS Samuel B. Roberts in 1988 and alleged 2019 tanker attacks, demonstrating Tehran’s capacity to threaten shipping lanes. [2]

1988 – Iranian sea‑mines nearly sink the USS Samuel B. Roberts, reinforcing Tehran’s willingness to use naval mines against U.S. warships. [2]

2019 – Iran is implicated in tanker attacks in the Gulf of Oman, further evidencing its ability to disrupt global oil transport. [2]

June 2025 – Iran launches a wave of missile and drone attacks on Israel, after which Tehran claims to have replenished its stock of over 20 ballistic‑missile types and Shahed suicide drones, restoring its strike capability. [2]

June 23, 2025 – Iran fires missiles at Qatar’s Al Udeid Air Base, prompting U.S. personnel to evacuate the region’s largest American base and highlighting the vulnerability of U.S. forces to Iranian retaliation. [5]

2025 – The United States conducts a B‑2 bombing campaign that drops 14 large bombs on two Iranian nuclear sites without losing aircraft or personnel, a success Trump touts as a precedent for future strikes. [4]

Early Jan 2026 – A U.S. carrier strike group sails into the Middle East as President Trump warns of a possible attack on Iran, raising the risk of direct confrontation. [3]

Jan 15, 2026 – Analysts note Trump frames last year’s Iran strikes as a victory and signals a new attack “in solidarity with protesters,” while warning that any fresh strike must avoid civilian areas to prevent alienating dissidents. [4]

Jan 15, 2026 – Rosemary Kelanic warns that Tehran faces an existential threat and could “retaliate more aggressively” if Washington moves toward regime change, marking a shift from the restraint observed seven months earlier. [5]

Jan 29, 2026 – U.S. officials prepare limited‑precision air and naval strikes targeting IRGC and Basij bases, missile sites and nuclear facilities, planning attacks within days that would be highly focused rather than a full‑scale invasion. [1]

Jan 29, 2026 – Iran declares its “finger is on the trigger” and threatens to launch concealed ballistic missiles and drones from caves, underground sites or remote mountainsides in response to any U.S. attack. [1]

Jan 29, 2026 – Secretary of State Marco Rubio tells CNN that 30,000‑40,000 U.S. troops across eight or nine regional bases are within range of Iranian UAVs and short‑range missiles, underscoring the immediate danger to American forces. [3]

Jan 29, 2026 – Kataeb Hezbollah commander Abu Hussein al‑Hamidawi urges “all‑out war” by global loyalists, signaling that Iranian proxy militias in Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen stand ready to fight if Tehran is attacked. [3]

Feb 18, 2026 – President Trump posts on social media that the United States could use Diego Garcia and RAF Fairford bases to strike Iran, prompting Iran’s UN envoy to label the message an “explicit public threat.” [6]

Feb 19, 2026 – Iran sends a letter to the UN Security Council stating that any regional U.S. bases or assets will be “legitimate targets” under Article 51 if Washington attacks Tehran, pledging a “decisive and proportional” response. [6]

Feb 20, 2026 – Iran’s UN ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani warns that a U.S. strike would trigger “catastrophic regional consequences” and calls for urgent Security Council action. [6]

Feb 20, 2026 – Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warns that any attack on Iran could spark a broader regional war, reinforcing Tehran’s red line. [6]

Feb 21, 2026 – Iran’s retaliation playbook outlines that U.S. forces—30‑40 k troops and 13 naval vessels, including the carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and a second carrier en route—are vulnerable, while proxy militias pledge direct defense of Tehran; energy strategist Umud Shokri warns that even a partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz would spike oil prices and risk a worldwide recession. [2]

Feb 2026 – Iran conducts a joint live‑fire naval drill with Russia in the southern Persian Gulf, showcasing coordinated maritime capabilities and signaling a willingness to bolster naval diplomacy amid rising tensions. [6]

Future 2026 onward – The United States maintains at least 19 bases in West Asia, including the Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain and al‑Udeid in Qatar, and keeps a second carrier in the region, indicating a sustained military presence that could shape any forthcoming conflict dynamics. [6]