Shutdown Threat Surpasses 75% as Senate Deadlocked Over ICE Funding Reforms
Updated (2 articles)
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Image: NewsweekWASHINGTON, DC – NOVEMBER 11: The U.S. Capitol is shown the morning after the Senate passed legislation to reopen the federal government on November 11, 2025 on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC. The Senate reached a deal late Sunday to fund the government, aiming to end the longest shutdown in history once the House of Representatives votes on the legislation later this week. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images) Source Full size
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Image: NewsweekWASHINGTON, DC – NOVEMBER 11: The U.S. Capitol is shown the morning after the Senate passed legislation to reopen the federal government on November 11, 2025 on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC. The Senate reached a deal late Sunday to fund the government, aiming to end the longest shutdown in history once the House of Representatives votes on the legislation later this week. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images) Source Full size
Shutdown probability spikes after Minneapolis ICE shootings Prediction markets lifted the chance of a government shutdown to over 75 percent following the fatal shooting of ICU nurse Alex Pretti and mother Renee Good by ICE agents in Minneapolis, and the deadline to pass a DHS spending bill is midnight Friday, Jan 30, after which a partial shutdown would begin at 12:01 a.m. Saturday [1][2]. Senate voting has been stalled by severe winter weather, pushing the deadline closer and heightening uncertainty [1][2].
Democrats condition DHS funding on ICE reform package Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer presented a reform list that requires ICE agents to end roving patrols, coordinate arrests with local police, wear visible identification, keep body‑cameras on, remove masks, and follow an enforceable code of conduct [1][2]. Subcommittee chair Chris Murphy called the measures “commonsense” and said they can be implemented without new comprehensive legislation [1][2]. The Democratic caucus pledged to block the DHS spending bill until these changes are adopted [2].
Republicans push to preserve DHS funding and avoid shutdown Senate Majority Leader John Thune warned that a vote is needed to prevent a “needless shutdown,” noting the current package already includes Democratic priorities such as body‑camera funding for ICE [1][2]. Senator Lindsey Graham labeled Democratic refusal to fund DHS “reckless,” arguing it would endanger border security [1]. The House Freedom Caucus wrote to President Trump affirming support for ICE and DHS funding, insisting the bill will not return to the House without those resources [2].
Sources
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1.
Newsweek: Shutdown Threat Grows as Senate Standoff Over ICE Funding Intensifies – Highlights the surge in shutdown odds, cultural backlash, state‑level legislation, a foreign protest, and a federal workers’ union warning of massive economic impact, emphasizing the broader political and social fallout .
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2.
AP: Partial Shutdown Looms as Democrats Push ICE Reforms – Focuses on the imminent funding deadline, Democratic reform demands, Republican calls for specifics, and the House Freedom Caucus’s refusal to approve DHS changes without full House approval, underscoring the legislative gridlock .
Timeline
2025 – The 43‑day federal shutdown in 2025 costs $11 billion in GDP and furloughs 900,000 workers, a benchmark the National Federation of Federal Employees‑IAM cites while warning of similar damage if a 2026 shutdown occurs. [1]
Jan 2026 – Federal ICE agents in Minneapolis fatally shoot ICU nurse Alex Pretti and mother Renee Good, sparking nationwide outrage and prompting the Trump administration to label the victims “domestic terrorists.” [1][2]
Jan 2026 – Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer releases a reform package demanding ICE agents end roving patrols, coordinate arrests with local police, keep masks off, wear visible IDs and body‑cameras, and follow an enforceable code of conduct, declaring “Masks off, body cameras on.” [1][2]
Jan 2026 – Colorado introduces legislation allowing citizens to sue federal agents for civil‑rights violations, Delaware proposes penalties for airlines transporting ICE detainees without warrants, and California lawmakers push independent probes of the Minneapolis shootings and bans on ICE operations on state property. [1]
Jan 2026 – Ecuador’s foreign ministry protests after an ICE agent attempts to enter its Minneapolis consulate, invoking the Vienna Convention’s protection of diplomatic premises. [1]
Jan 2026 – Bruce Springsteen releases “Streets of Minneapolis,” dedicating the song to Pretti and Good, while Billie Eilish, Olivia Rodrigo and Tom Morello announce a benefit concert for the victims’ families. [1]
Jan 2026 – Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and senior adviser Stephen Miller defend the administration’s stance, praising ICE agents as “heroic” on social media; Vice President JD Vance and President Trump publicly rebuke Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey for refusing to assist federal immigration enforcement. [1]
Jan 2026 – The National Federation of Federal Employees‑IAM warns that a shutdown would leave more than one million federal workers without pay, citing the 2025 shutdown’s $11 billion GDP loss as a cautionary precedent. [1]
Jan 2026 – Senate Majority Leader John Thune says negotiations with the White House will decide whether the government shuts down this weekend and urges a vote, noting the current DHS package already funds Democratic priorities like ICE body‑camera funding. [1][2]
Jan 2026 – Republican Senator Lindsey Graham calls Democrats’ refusal to fund DHS “reckless,” arguing that withholding resources endangers border security, while Senate Republicans await specific Democratic reform details amid stalled talks. [1][2]
Jan 30, 2026 – Congress must pass a DHS funding bill by midnight on Jan 30 to keep the government open; prediction markets raise the shutdown probability above 75 percent after the Minneapolis shootings, and winter weather delays Senate voting on the measure. [1][2]
Jan 31, 2026 (12:01 a.m.) – If no agreement is reached, a partial government shutdown begins, potentially affecting over one million federal employees and halting many services. [1][2]
External resources (3 links)
- https://x.com/MayorFrey (cited 3 times)
- https://x.com/MayorFrey/status/2016517831538446802/photo/1 (cited 3 times)