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Kremlin Pushes Reserve Callups While Ukraine Gains Ground and Russia Expands Space Warfare

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Kremlin Leverages Defender of the Fatherland Day for Reserve Mobilization President Vladimir Putin’s Feb 23 address framed soldiers’ “enormous responsibility” as a national sacrifice and signaled limited, rolling involuntary reserve callups to pre‑empt domestic backlash. Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev appeared in uniform, promising care for mobilized troops and their families, while hinting that benefits could be trimmed as the draft expands[1]. Putin’s meeting with widows of fallen servicemembers reinforced the pledge of continued assistance, underscoring the political weight of the narrative[1].

Ukrainian Forces Liberate Southern Settlements Amid Ongoing Counteroffensive Geolocated video from Feb 21‑22 shows Ukrainian units advancing east of Verbove and recapturing Ternuvate and surrounding villages. Kyiv officials reported liberation of more than 400 km² and eight settlements since January 2025, marking a steady push in the south[1]. The gains contrast sharply with Russian claims of large‑scale victories[2].

Russia Deploys New Luch Satellites to Intercept European Military Communications The Financial Times disclosed that Luch‑1 and Luch‑2 satellites have intercepted signals from at least a dozen European military satellites, expanding Moscow’s space‑based intelligence and jamming capabilities[1]. Analysts assess the system can both gather data and potentially disrupt NATO satellite links, enhancing Russia’s strategic reach[1].

Escalating Missile and Drone Strikes Hit Both Sides of the Front On Feb 22‑23 Russia launched one Iskander‑M missile and 126 drones, of which Ukrainian forces downed 105, striking civilian, transport, industrial and energy targets in Odesa and Zaporizhia[1]. Ukraine responded by hitting an ammunition depot in Maksimovka (Belgorod) and burning a warehouse at the Tamanneftegaz refinery (Krasnodar)[2]. Russia retaliated on Feb 19‑20 with a barrage of 128 drones, about 80 of them Shahed types, damaging infrastructure across five oblasts[2].

Kremlin’s Victory Narrative Collides With Independent Assessments and Domestic Crackdown Colonel‑General Sergei Rudskoy claimed Russian forces seized roughly 900 km² and 42 settlements in 2026, yet ISW open‑source analysis confirms only 19 settlements and 572 km² captured[2]. Simultaneously, Moscow opened a criminal case against former separatist leader Pavel Gubarev for “discrediting the Russian Armed Forces,” and United Russia intensified propaganda ahead of the 2026 Duma vote[2]. Leaked Telegram chats reveal senior Russian generals condoning routine torture of Ukrainian POWs, confirming long‑standing allegations of war crimes[2].

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Timeline

Jan 2025 – Ukrainian forces liberate over 400 km² and eight settlements in the south, marking a sustained counter‑offensive that reshapes front‑line dynamics since the start of the year [1].

2025 – The Kremlin publicly claims seizure of 6,700 km² and 300 settlements, a narrative later disproved by open‑source analysis showing far fewer gains, underscoring a pattern of inflated war reporting [2].

Early 2026 – Russia expands its space‑based intelligence with Luch‑1 and Luch‑2 satellites, intercepting communications of at least a dozen European military satellites and positioning itself to gather data and potentially disrupt NATO links [1].

Feb 19‑20, 2026 – Ukraine strikes deep Russian targets, hitting an ammunition depot in Maksimovka (Belgorod) and a refinery warehouse in Tamanneftegaz (Krasnodar); Russia retaliates with one Iskander‑M missile and ≈128 drones (≈80 Shahed‑type), damaging civilian infrastructure across five oblasts [2].

Feb 20, 2026 – The Kremlin pushes a false narrative of sweeping gains, announcing capture of 900 km² and 42 settlements in 2026 despite ISW data confirming only 19 settlements and 572 km² taken, highlighting the regime’s reliance on propaganda to mask battlefield realities [2].

Feb 21‑22, 2026 – Ukrainian forces advance east of Verbove, recapturing Ternuvate and nearby villages; geolocated footage shows liberation of multiple settlements, adding to a reported total of over 400 km² reclaimed since Jan 2025 [1].

Feb 22‑23, 2026 – Russia launches a massive missile and drone strike on Ukrainian infrastructure, firing one Iskander‑M missile and 126 drones (downing 105), targeting civilian, transport, industrial and energy sites in Odesa and Zaporizhia regions [1].

Feb 23, 2026 – President Putin delivers his Defender of the Fatherland Day address, linking soldiers’ “enormous responsibility” to the nation and signalling preparation for limited, rolling involuntary reserve call‑ups to pre‑empt domestic backlash [1].

Feb 23, 2026 – Deputy President Dmitry Medvedev appears in a military uniform, tells troops “the price of victory matters,” and promises state care for soldiers and their families, reinforcing the sacrifice narrative [1].

Feb 23, 2026 – Putin meets widows of fallen servicemembers, pledges continued assistance while hinting at possible curtailment of benefits as the Kremlin braces for future reserve mobilisations that could strain the budget [1].

Feb 2026 – Former separatist leader Pavel Gubarev faces an administrative criminal case for “discrediting the Russian Armed Forces,” with a fine of 30,000‑50,000 rubles after he criticized MoD Deputy Head Apti Alaudinov as a “TikTok general” [2].

Feb 2026 – United Russia intensifies propaganda ahead of the 2026 Duma election, directing media to publish stories on social benefits and war‑equipment deliveries; polling drops 10‑15 percent in regions like St. Petersburg amid rising living‑cost pressures [2].

Feb 2026 – Ukrainian and Moldovan security services foil a Russian assassination plot, detaining ten suspects; Russian intelligence had offered up to $100,000 per target to kill journalists, officials and foreign‑legion personnel, aiming to spark outrage and destabilise Ukraine [2].

Feb 2026 – Leaked Telegram chats from Major General Roman Demurchiev reveal routine torture and killing of Ukrainian POWs, confirming that senior Russian commanders condone such crimes [2].

2026 (future) – The scheduled Duma vote later in the year becomes a focal point for United Russia’s media campaign, shaping the political backdrop for ongoing war‑time mobilisation and domestic policy decisions [2].

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