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California’s Free Transitional Kindergarten Expansion Triggers Wave of Private Preschool Closures

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Gov. Newsom’s Universal Free TK Policy Implemented Statewide In his January 2026 State of the State address, Governor Gavin Newsom announced that transitional kindergarten (TK) would be free for every child who turned four by September, branding it “the most significant expansion of child care in America” and extending the public pre‑kindergarten grade to all 4‑year‑olds statewide[1].

Funding Surge Raises Early‑Childhood Budget to $14 B State spending on early‑childhood programs more than doubled from over $5 billion in 2020 to more than $14 billion in 2026, financing the universal TK rollout and additional child‑care subsidies for low‑income families[1].

Enrollment Shift Leaves Private Preschools Under‑Occupied Private centers are losing families to the cost‑free public option; Elk Grove’s Frisha Moore reports her preschool operating at roughly 40 % capacity with 91 licensed spots (including 20 for children under 2) at risk of disappearing as parents choose free TK[1].

Study Links TK Rollout to Hundreds of Preschool Closures A University of California, Berkeley analysis attributes 167 preschool closures in Los Angeles County between 2020 and 2024, in part, to the new public TK grade reducing demand for private child‑care seats[1].

Small Centers Face Financial Collapse as Enrollments Plummet Shilpa Panech of San Ramon saw her 4‑year‑old enrollment drop from 24 to one, forcing the shutdown of Panache Enfants and the loss of 72 licensed spots, illustrating the financial strain on small providers serving infants and toddlers[1].

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Timeline

2020 – New Mexico creates the Early Childhood Trust Fund with a $300 million endowment, later growing to about $10 billion from oil‑and‑gas revenue, establishing the financing base for its future universal child‑care program[2].

2020 – California’s early‑childhood budget exceeds $5 billion, laying the groundwork for later expansion that more than doubles to $14 billion by 2026, enabling free transitional kindergarten statewide[4].

2023 – New York City runs a free‑bus pilot that lifts ridership on fare‑free routes but does not improve speeds, informing Mayor Mamdani’s later “fast and free” bus proposal[1].

2020‑2024 – A UC Berkeley study links California’s public TK expansion to 167 preschool closures in Los Angeles County, highlighting the pressure on private providers[4].

Nov 1 2025 – New Mexico launches universal, free child care, enrolling ~7,000 children from ~6,000 families in the first month; 63 % are newly eligible and 1,351 providers (85 % of eligible) join the subsidy[2].

Dec 13 2025 – Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham says the program is “an investment in the state’s workforce and economic health,” while base pay for early‑childhood workers rises to $16‑$19 per hour[2].

Dec 30 2025 – Mayor Zohran Mamdani unveils a tax‑funded affordability agenda that includes universal child care costing about $6 billion annually, free “fast and free” buses at $800 million per year, and five city‑run supermarkets for food‑insecure neighborhoods; he notes he must secure Gov. Hochul and the state legislature’s support to change tax policy[1].

Dec 30 2025 – City comptroller data show infant/toddler family‑based child‑care costs jump 79 % to $18,200 annually since 2019, underscoring the urgency of a universal child‑care proposal[1].

Jan 8 2026 – Mayor Mamdani announces a citywide free and subsidized child‑care plan that lowers fully funded age to 2 years, targets 100,000 new slots, and will be staged after a budget submission due Apr 1; he ties the effort to his campaign promise and cites that 26 % of NYC children live in poverty[3].

Jan 8 2026 – Gov. Kathy Hochul and Mayor Mamdani unveil a phased “2 Care” rollout in high‑need NYC neighborhoods, pledging state support for the first two years from existing revenues and emphasizing that families are “front and center” of the effort[5].

Jan 8 2026 – Hochul announces a broader statewide universal pre‑K goal targeting full availability by the 2028‑2029 school year, with a near‑term $1.7 billion investment and total child‑care spending projected at $4.5 billion for the upcoming fiscal year[5].

Jan 8 2026 – Rebecca Bailin of New Yorkers United for Child Care calls the 2‑year‑old free‑care plan “historic,” highlighting its potential relief for thousands of families[5].

Feb 17 2026 – Gov. Gavin Newsom declares free transitional kindergarten for all 4‑year‑olds statewide, calling it “the most significant expansion of child care in America,” after state early‑childhood funding more than doubles to $14 billion[4].

Feb 17 2026 – Newsom’s TK expansion adds 130,000 subsidized slots but falls short of the 200,000‑slot target; private preschools such as Frisha Moore’s Elk Grove center see enrollment drop to 40 % capacity, risking closures[4].

Apr 1 2026 (planned) – NYC will submit its budget incorporating the 100,000 additional child‑care slots and phased Pre‑K seat increases for 4‑year‑olds, setting the financial framework for the city’s expanded affordability agenda[3].

2028‑2029 (planned) – New York State aims to achieve universal pre‑K availability statewide, completing the expansion begun under Newsom’s TK rollout and Mamdani’s city plan[5].

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