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U.S. Arms Package and Beijing’s Sixth “Justice Mission” Drill Prompt New Year Tensions

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U.S. State Department Issues Restraint Call and Approves $11 Billion Arms Deal The State Department publicly urged Beijing to halt military pressure on Taiwan and to pursue dialogue, reiterating opposition to unilateral changes by force [1][2][3]. Simultaneously, Washington cleared an $11 billion package of missiles, naval platforms, radar upgrades and drones, the largest Taiwan sale in years, aimed at bolstering island defenses [1][2][3]. Both moves were framed as deterrence against Chinese coercion while signaling continued U.S. commitment to regional stability.

China Conducts Sixth “Justice Mission 2025” Live‑Fire Exercise Around Taiwan The People’s Liberation Army launched its sixth large‑scale drill, deploying army, navy, air force and rocket units in a two‑day live‑fire operation that simulated a blockade of key ports [1][5][7][12][13]. Taiwan reported 27 rockets landing within 24 nautical miles, 130 aircraft (about 90 crossing the median line), and dozens of warships circling the island, prompting temporary dangerous zones and major flight disruptions [5][7][8][12]. Beijing presented the drills as a “stern warning” against separatism and external interference [4][13].

Taiwan’s Leadership Vows Sovereignty Defense and Expands Defense Budget President Lai Ching‑te pledged to safeguard sovereignty, raise defense spending to 5 % of GDP, and accelerate the Taiwan Shield (T‑Dome) air‑defense system after the drills [3][8][6]. The administration approved a $40 billion, eight‑year weapons budget covering the high‑level air‑defense dome and other capabilities [3]. Taiwan condemned the exercises as intimidation, labeling China the region’s biggest destroyer of peace while asserting restraint to avoid escalation [3][6][8].

Political Reactions Highlight Divergent U.S. Stances and Chinese Posturing President Donald Trump dismissed the drills as non‑threatening, citing a strong personal relationship with Xi Jinping and claiming no imminent invasion risk [1][6][7][9][10]. Chinese officials, including Xi, reiterated that unification remains an “unstoppable” historical trend and warned that force remains an option, with PLA aiming for operational capability against Taiwan by 2027 [1][4]. Beijing responded to the U.S. arms sale by sanctioning dozens of American defense firms, further heightening diplomatic friction [5][6][12][13].

Sources

Timeline

2022 – Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan triggers a surge in PLA drills around the strait, marking the start of a sustained escalation that Beijing frames as “grey‑zone” pressure [2].

2022 – China begins regular large‑scale exercises near Taiwan, establishing a pattern of annual “Justice Mission” drills that intensify after each U.S. arms sale [2].

May 2024 – Lai Ching‑te assumes the Taiwanese presidency, pledging to maintain the status quo while boosting defence spending, a stance that later shapes Taiwan’s response to Chinese drills [2].

Oct 2024 – PLA aircraft sorties peak at 153 jets crossing the median line, the highest since the 2022 escalation, underscoring Beijing’s growing air‑power projection [3].

Dec 29, 2025 – China launches the “Justice Mission 2025” joint army‑navy‑air‑rocket exercise, simulating a blockade of Taiwan’s ports and deploying live‑fire zones within 12 nautical miles of the coast [2][6][12].

Dec 29, 2025 – The United States approves an $11 billion weapons package for Taiwan, including HIMARS rockets, anti‑tank missiles and loitering drones, the largest U.S. sale to the island to date [4][6].

Dec 29, 2025 – President Donald Trump tells reporters he “has a great relationship with Xi” and is “not worried” about the Chinese drills, downplaying any invasion risk [11].

Dec 30, 2025 – Taiwan’s defence ministry detects 130 PLA aircraft, about 90 of which cross the median line, and more than a dozen Chinese navy vessels, prompting the deployment of missile systems and a high‑alert posture [1].

Dec 30, 2025 – Trump reiterates that nothing worries him about the drills, emphasizing the 20‑year history of Chinese naval activity in the area [5][1].

Dec 30, 2025 – Taiwan’s civil aviation authority cancels 84 domestic flights and redirects 857 international flights, affecting over 100 000 passengers as temporary danger zones are established [3][5].

Dec 31, 2025 – PLA announces the completion of “Justice Mission 2025,” claiming the drills tested integrated joint operations, while 27 rockets land within 24 nautical miles of Taiwan and Beijing sanctions 20 U.S. defence firms [8][9].

Dec 31, 2025 – Japan’s foreign ministry labels the Chinese maneuvers “escalatory” and calls for peaceful dialogue, reflecting regional concern over Strait stability [8].

Jan 1, 2026 – The U.S. State Department issues a New Year’s Day statement urging Beijing to exercise restraint, cease military pressure on Taiwan, and pursue dialogue, reiterating support for the status quo [4].

Jan 1, 2026 – President Lai Ching‑te delivers a New Year address vowing to defend Taiwan’s sovereignty, strengthen national defence and accelerate the $40 billion, 2026‑33 defence budget that funds the Taiwan Dome air‑defence system [7].

Jan 1, 2026 – Xi Jinping, in a New Year’s Eve speech, declares reunification an “unstoppable historical trend,” while U.S. defence officials warn the PLA aims to be capable of a Taiwan operation by the end of 2027 [4].

Jan 1, 2026 – Trump again downplays invasion risk, stating his rapport with Xi means Beijing “won’t invade soon,” despite the ongoing sixth round of Justice Mission drills that include 27 rocket launches [4].

Jan 1, 2026 – The United States reaffirms the $11 billion arms package, emphasizing missile, naval and radar upgrades designed to bolster Taiwan’s self‑defence [4].

Jan 1, 2026 – U.S. officials publicly urge Beijing to stop “unilateral changes to the status quo by force or coercion,” linking the call to the recent completion of the two‑day PLA exercise [13].

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