Record‑Size Tax Refunds Projected for 2026 Filing Season After New Tax Cuts
Updated (4 articles)
White House Forecasts Historic Refund Levels Under Working Families Tax Cuts The administration announced that the 2026 filing season will generate the largest refunds in U.S. history, citing President Donald Trump’s Working Families Tax Cuts Act. Officials estimate the average refund could rise by $1,000 or more, a 15‑30 % increase over recent years. The projection relies on unchanged taxpayer withholdings combined with retroactive changes effective early 2025[1].
Treasury Secretary Bessent Labels 2026 a Gigantic Refund Year Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called the upcoming season “a gigantic refund year,” emphasizing the impact of the new legislation, which he dubbed “One Big Beautiful Bill.” He highlighted that the bill’s provisions will boost refunds across most income brackets. Bessent’s remarks align with the White House’s optimistic outlook[1].
Average Refund Projections Rise to Between $3,800 and $4,200 The Tax Foundation projects an average refund of $3,800, up from $3,052 in 2024 and $3,004 in 2023. Law firm Piper Sandler forecasts a higher average of about $4,200, depending on individual filing situations. Both estimates reflect the combined effect of the new deductions and the unchanged withholding rates[1].
New Senior and State‑Tax Deductions Expand Potential Refunds Taxpayers eligible for the new $6,000 senior deduction or the expanded $40,000 state and local tax (SALT) deduction could see substantially larger checks. These provisions target older filers and those in high‑tax states, respectively. The deductions are expected to contribute significantly to the overall rise in average refunds[1].
IRS Filing Window Opens Jan 26 with Predominant Electronic Submissions The IRS will begin accepting individual returns on Jan 26, with an expected 164 million filings. Electronic filing dominated the previous season, accounting for 93 % of returns, and 90 % of filers now use direct deposit for faster refunds. The deadline remains April 15[1].
Processing Times Vary by Filing Method and Credit Claims Electronic returns typically receive refunds within 21 days, with funds appearing up to five days after a “Where’s My Refund?” notice. Paper returns may take four weeks or more. Refunds involving the Earned Income Tax Credit or Additional Child Tax Credit are delayed until early March[1].
Timeline
Jul 2025 – President Trump signs the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, enacting retroactive tax cuts that eliminate taxes on tips, overtime and Social Security benefits and set the stage for larger refunds in the 2026 filing season [4].
Dec 11, 2025 – White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt announces that Americans will receive an extra $1,000 in their 2026 tax refunds, citing Piper Sandler analysis that refunds will be about one‑third larger than usual [4].
Dec 24, 2025 – Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, also acting IRS commissioner, tells the All‑In Podcast that retroactive provisions of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act will generate $1,000‑$2,000 refunds per household and $100‑$150 billion in total refunds during the first quarter of 2026 [2].
Dec 25, 2025 – IRS CEO Frank Bisignano predicts the 2026 season will produce the biggest refunds ever, noting that over 94 % of middle‑class Americans will see a boost and that Social Security benefits may become untaxed for many recipients [3]; the White House reiterates a $1,000 extra refund per filer and Bessent repeats the $100‑$150 billion Q1 estimate [3]; the Tax Foundation projects the average 2026 refund to rise to about $3,800, up from $3,052 in 2024 [3].
Jan 26, 2026 – The IRS opens the 2026 filing window, expecting roughly 164 million individual returns with 93 % filed electronically and a deadline of April 15; nine‑in‑ten filers plan to use direct deposit for faster refunds [1].
Jan 27, 2026 – The White House declares the 2026 refunds will be the largest in U.S. history, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent calls the year “gigantic” and attributes the surge to unchanged withholdings and retroactive tax changes effective early 2025 [1]; average refunds are projected between $3,800 and $4,200, with senior and state‑tax deductions further enlarging checks for some taxpayers [1].
Q1 2026 (Jan‑Mar) – Electronic returns typically receive refunds within 21 days, with funds appearing up to five days after a “Where’s My Refund?” notice; paper returns may take four weeks or more, and refunds involving the Earned Income Tax Credit or Additional Child Tax Credit are delayed until early March [1].
Apr 15, 2026 – Taxpayers must file by the April 15 deadline, after which refunds are issued within weeks, and the IRS advises filers to gather W‑2s, 1099s, bank information and digital‑asset records to prepare for the season [1][4].