2020 – Kalshi becomes federally regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, giving it a formal regulatory framework unlike many prediction‑market platforms [2].

2024 – Prediction‑market operators attract hundreds of millions of dollars in wagers during the U.S. presidential election, illustrating the sector’s rapid growth and high‑stakes nature [1].

Jan 2025 – Donald Trump Jr. announces he joins Kalshi as a strategic adviser and his firm 1789 Capital invests in Polymarket’s advisory board, sparking scrutiny over political ties to the industry [4].

Dec 2025 – An anonymous user creates a Polymarket account (identified only by a blockchain string) and later places large bets on Venezuelan political outcomes [1].

Jan 2, 2026 (afternoon) – Polymarket’s market price for Nicolás Maduro’s exit sits at about 6.5%, reflecting modest speculation of a regime change [1].

Jan 2, 2026 (just before midnight) – The same market’s odds climb to roughly 11% as traders react to emerging rumors of a possible capture [1].

Jan 3, 2026 (early hours) – President Donald Trump posts that Maduro is in U.S. custody, triggering a sharp market surge and massive position shifts on Polymarket [1].

Jan 5, 2026 – The anonymous Polymarket account converts a $32,537 stake into more than $436,000 after the Maduro capture news, prompting insider‑trading concerns [1].

Jan 5, 2026 – Dennis Kelleher of Better Markets says the trade “has all the hallmarks of a trade based on inside information,” underscoring regulatory alarm [1].

Jan 5, 2026 – Congressman Ritchie Torres introduces legislation to bar government employees from trading on prediction markets when they possess material nonpublic information [1].

Jan 11, 2026 – An anonymous trader cashes out over $400,000 from a Maduro‑exit bet on Polymarket, reinforcing suspicions of pre‑announcement knowledge [3].

Jan 11, 2026 – Lawmakers, led by Rep. Torres, push a crackdown on insider trading in prediction markets, citing the Maduro payout as a catalyst [3].

Jan 11, 2026 – The CFTC operates with a reduced staff and only one of five commissioner seats filled, raising doubts about its capacity to police the booming market [3].

Feb 17, 2026 – CFTC Chair Michael Selig publicly backs Kalshi and Polymarket, stating that states “cannot undermine the agency’s exclusive jurisdiction” over event contracts [2].

Feb 17, 2026 – Selig’s stance signals a potential shift of sports‑betting regulation to the federal level, which could allow prediction markets to operate nationwide even where gambling is banned [2].

Feb 17, 2026 – Nevada, Massachusetts and other states sue the platforms; a federal judge issues a temporary restraining order against Kalshi in Nevada, prompting a 9th Circuit appeal [2].

Feb 17, 2026 – Donald Trump Jr.’s investment in Polymarket and advisory role at Kalshi raise conflict‑of‑interest concerns amid the administration’s support [2].

Feb 17, 2026 – Industry advocate John Berlau praises the CFTC move as legitimizing risk‑hedging, while Utah Governor Spencer Cox dismisses prediction markets as “gambling” [2].

Feb 18, 2026 – Polymarket trades crypto‑based “shares” on USDC via the Polygon network; a February 4 question on Epstein disclosures shows “Yes” shares at $0.19 and “No” at $0.82, illustrating volatile pricing [4].

Feb 18, 2026 – Kalshi reports over $1 billion in contracts traded, about 90% tied to sports, while roughly half of Polymarket’s activity is sports‑related [2].

Feb 18, 2026 – Regulatory status diverges: Kalshi operates under CFTC oversight, whereas Polymarket is blocked in 33 countries, including the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom and Singapore [4].

2026 (ongoing) – The 9th Circuit appeal on Nevada’s restraining order will determine whether federal preemption can override state gambling laws, shaping the future legal landscape for prediction markets [2].