Iran’s Nationwide Protests Quelled After Brutal Crackdown Following Reimposed UN Sanctions

Updated 2026-01-13 16:47:26+00:00 (4 articles)

Nationwide Demonstrations Escalated Then Were Suppressed Over the two weeks ending January 13, protests erupted in dozens of cities, representing the largest mobilization since 2009 [1][2][3]. Security forces under the IRGC and Basij opened fire, producing disputed death tolls that range from 1,850 to over 2,400 killed [1][2][3]. The government imposed a nationwide communications blackout, severely limiting independent reporting [1][2][3]. By January 13 the demonstrations had largely subsided as the crackdown intensified [1][2][3].

Economic Collapse Deepened Unrest and Hardened Regime Response The UN reinstated sanctions on January 12, reversing the 2015 nuclear‑deal relief and tightening economic pressure [1][2]. Inflation for food exceeded 70 percent in 2025 and the rial hit a record low in December 2025, driving essential‑price spikes that fueled street anger [1][2]. Officials argue the worsening economy reinforces their resolve to maintain control despite popular discontent [1][2].

Supreme Leader Remained Hidden While Hardliners Issued Threats Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stayed out of public view throughout the crisis, leaving the succession question unresolved [2]. Hard‑line officials publicly threatened U.S. forces and Israel, while former President Trump claimed Iran signaled willingness to negotiate with Washington [2]. Analysts note no indication of a Venezuela‑style foreign intervention despite elevated regional tensions [2].

Analysts Weigh Regime Survival Against Internal and External Pressures Analyst Arash Azizi argues the regime is more cornered than in previous waves, having lost regional allies and facing heightened U.S. and Israeli pressure [3]. The BBC compares the situation to Syria and Tunisia, suggesting rapid collapse is possible if security forces shift, yet stresses no clear path to abrupt downfall [1]. Some experts propose internal power‑center negotiations could produce a transition without full regime collapse, echoing Venezuela‑style scenarios [3].

Sources

Timeline

2009 – The regime deploys the IRGC and Basij to violently suppress dissent in Tehran, establishing a hard‑line crackdown pattern that later informs its response to 2025‑26 unrest. [1]

2015 – Iran signs the nuclear deal, prompting the UN to lift sanctions and granting a brief economic reprieve before sanctions are reimposed in late 2025, reshaping fiscal pressures on the regime. [1]

2019 – Nationwide protests erupt over economic grievances, demonstrating mass mobilization capacity and prompting the regime to rely increasingly on the Basij as a frontline suppression force. [1]

2022 – Large‑scale anti‑government demonstrations spread across the country, further entrenching the IRGC’s role in internal security and setting a benchmark for future protest scale. [1]

Dec 31, 2025 – Shopkeepers in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar ignite protests as the rial hits a record low; demonstrations quickly spread to Karaj, Isfahan, Shiraz and other cities, with chants of “death to the dictator” and police deploying tear gas, while President Masoud Pezeshkian orders the interior minister to listen to protesters and open dialogue, and the UN reinstates nuclear‑related sanctions, tightening economic pressure. [3]

Dec 31, 2025 – Market betting platform Polymarket lowers the odds of regime collapse to 16 % after a brief rise, reflecting analysts’ view that the protests, though widespread, lack the momentum of earlier uprisings. [3]

Jan 9, 2026 – Protests intensify nationwide, creating fresh political pressure; analyst Arash Azizi argues the regime is more cornered than before, having lost regional allies and facing heightened U.S. and Israeli threats, while opposition factions remain fragmented, with exile figure Reza Pahlavi lacking a unifying network. [2]

Jan 9, 2026 – Some analysts propose a “Venezuela‑style” U.S. strategy of pressuring Tehran’s leadership without full regime collapse, but regional actors and Israeli interests complicate such a pathway. [2]

Jan 9, 2026 – President Pezeshkian pursues modest economic relief measures and seeks dialogue, yet internet blackouts and violent clashes persist, signaling tension between de‑escalation efforts and hard‑line security responses. [2]

Jan 12, 2026 – Demonstrations reach their largest scale in years, with death tolls climbing into the hundreds; hard‑liners issue threats against U.S. forces and Israel, while former President Trump claims Iran signals willingness to negotiate with Washington. [4]

Jan 12, 2026 – The extended war with Israel and recent U.S. airstrikes erode Iran’s command‑and‑control, deplete missile stockpiles and weaken its conventional military, compounding internal unrest. [4]

Jan 12, 2026 – Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei remains out of public view, and no clear successor emerges, deepening uncertainty about the regime’s future leadership. [4]

Jan 12, 2026 – UN‑reimposed sanctions drive the rial to a new record low and cause essential food prices to soar, fueling further street protests in major markets. [4]

Jan 13, 2026 – After two weeks of intense demonstrations, the IRGC and Basij execute a harsh crackdown that largely quells protests, while the death toll is reported between 1,850 and over 2,400, underscoring the regime’s capacity to maintain control through lethal force. [1]

Jan 13, 2026 – UN sanctions are fully reimposed, inflation in 2025 exceeds 70 % for food, and the rial’s December record low persists, intensifying economic hardship for ordinary Iranians. [1]

Jan 13, 2026 – Analysts note that, unlike Syria or Tunisia, Iran’s security apparatus has not defected, keeping the regime stable despite the crisis; however, they warn that a future shift in IRGC loyalty could trigger rapid collapse. [1]

Jan 13, 2026 – U.S. diplomatic avenues remain open, with President Trump threatening tariffs on countries engaging with Iran and a China‑U.S. trade truce paving the way for an upcoming summit that could influence Tehran’s calculations. [1]