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Trump Adviser Forecasts 90% Likelihood of US‑Israel Strike Amid Iran Protests and Iraqi Stalemate

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Adviser Warns Imminent US‑Israel Military Action A senior Trump adviser told Axios that President Donald Trump sees a “90 percent” chance of a U.S. strike on Iran within weeks, citing stalled nuclear‑deal talks and frustration over diplomatic progress. The adviser referenced a massive, weeks‑long joint U.S.–Israeli campaign targeting Tehran and noted the deployment of the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group to the region as a forward‑presence signal. These statements were reported on Feb 19, 2026 [1].

Iranian Anti‑Regime Protests Escalate in Five Provinces On Feb 18, anti‑government demonstrations erupted in five provinces, with protesters gathering at memorials after a 40‑day mourning period. Security forces responded with tear‑gas, arrests at Tehran’s Behest‑e Zahra cemetery, and Basij patrols in central Tehran; the Iranian Teachers Union launched a nationwide strike. Human‑rights groups estimate at least 7,000 deaths and over 50,000 detentions since the protests began [1].

Iraqi Shia Coordination Framework Splits Over Maliki Premiership Iraqi media identified three factions within the Shia Coordination Framework regarding former PM Nouri al‑Maliki’s bid: supporters led by Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al‑Sudani, opponents headed by Qais al‑Khazali, and neutrals. The United States warned on Jan 27 that aid would be cut if Maliki assumes office, and a senior adviser hinted at targeting Iraq’s oil ministry and central bank on March 1. The deadlock deepened after Maliki cancelled key meetings, prompting a U.S. deadline initially set for Feb 16 and later extended to Feb 19 for the framework to name a new premier [1].

Iran Fortifies Taleghan 2 and Other Nuclear Facilities The Institute for Science and International Security reported that Iran has encased the Taleghan 2 site at Parchin in a concrete sarcophagus and covered it with soil to shield it from potential airstrikes. Similar hardening efforts are underway at the Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center and the Kolang Gaz La mountain complex, extending Tehran’s ability to rebuild nuclear and missile capabilities if attacked [1].

Hezbollah Pressures Lebanese Army on Northern Disarmament Lebanon’s government gave its army a four‑month deadline on Feb 16 to implement the second phase of disarmament between the Litani and Awali rivers. Security sources say the army will adopt a gradual, non‑confrontational approach, while Hezbollah frames the northern disarmament as an existential issue and threatens unrest to deter forceful action [1].

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Timeline

Dec 28, 2025 – Protests erupt in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar over the sharp collapse of the rial, quickly spreading to dozens of cities and all 31 provinces, marking the largest anti‑government wave since the 2022 Mahsa Amini uprising and the biggest challenge since the 1979 revolution [6][17][21][24].

Jan 4, 2026 – Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei declares “rioters must be put in their place,” distinguishing them from legitimate protesters, while activists count at least 15 deaths across more than 170 locations, underscoring the rapid escalation [29].

Jan 5, 2026 – HRANA verifies 19 civilian deaths and one security fatality in eight days, protests reach 26 provinces, and President Donald Trump warns Iran will be “hit very hard” if protesters are killed [21][22].

Jan 6, 2026 – Reuters reports at least 25 killings in the first nine days and reveals intelligence that Khamenei has a contingency plan to flee to Moscow with about 20 aides if unrest spirals [20].

Jan 6, 2026 – HRANA raises its death toll to 36 after ten days of unrest, noting 34 protesters and two security personnel killed and over 2,000 arrests [19].

Jan 8, 2026 – State television blames “terrorist agents” from the US and Israel for fires, reports at least 39 deaths (including eight minors) and a nationwide internet blackout that limits verification [17].

Jan 9, 2026 – Khamenei posts on X denouncing US policy, predicts Trump’s fall, and acknowledges a death toll climbing to at least 62 amid continued internet shutdowns; the IRGC warns of retaliation and the UN rights office calls for investigations [16].

Jan 9, 2026 – Despite the blackout, protests persist with at least 65 killed and 2,300 detained; Khamenei frames demonstrators as “trying to please Donald Trump,” while the judiciary chief vows decisive punishments [28].

Jan 10, 2026 – Two‑week protests see the HRANA count 72 fatalities and over 2,300 detainees; Khamenei signals a tougher crackdown and the attorney general reiterates the death‑penalty threat for “enemies of God” [27].

Jan 11, 2026 – HRANA records 490 protesters and 48 security forces dead (≈500 total) as internet access falls to about 1 % of normal, hampering independent reporting [13].

Jan 12, 2026 – Demonstrations sweep all 31 provinces, with HRANA estimating more than 500 deaths, 10,700 arrests, and a near‑total communications shutdown that isolates the country [11].

Jan 13, 2026 – HRANA tallies 512 protesters and 134 security personnel killed, plus over 10,000 arrests, while exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi gains visible support among thousands of Tehran demonstrators [4].

Jan 14, 2026 – HRANA’s latest update lists 2,571 total deaths (2,403 protesters, 12 children) and 147 security deaths; other groups cite figures near 3,000, highlighting divergent tallies amid ongoing internet restrictions [9][10].

Jan 17, 2026 – Supreme Leader Khamenei publicly acknowledges “thousands” killed in an “inhuman, savage” manner and blames the United States, marking a rare admission of the crackdown’s scale [2].

Jan 18, 2026 – Khamenei brands President Trump a “criminal” and cites a rights‑group figure of at least 3,308 deaths, while Trump calls for regime change and notes Iran’s reported cancellation of mass hangings [8].

Jan 21‑22, 2026 – Iran’s interior ministry releases an official death toll of 3,117 (2,427 civilians/security, remainder unspecified), while HRANA maintains a higher count of at least 4,902; foreign minister Abbas Araghchi’s Davos invitation is rescinded amid diplomatic fallout [7].

Jan 24, 2026 – Government and HRANA death‑toll estimates diverge sharply (3,117 vs. 5,137); material damage exceeds $125 million, and President Trump cites the threat of mass executions as a red line for possible carrier‑group deployment [6].

Jan 27‑28, 2026 – Families of the dead face ultimatums to pay roughly 1 billion tomans or have corpses re‑classified as Basij martyrs; security forces used live fire and pellet guns on Jan 8‑9, while a near‑total internet blackout hampers information flow [1].

Feb 19, 2026 – A Trump adviser estimates a 90 % chance of a U.S. strike within weeks as stalled nuclear talks fuel pressure; protests continue in five provinces with at least 7,000 killed and over 50,000 detained, and the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group moves into the region [30].

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