2021 – Poland endures a hybrid war with Russia, confronting drone incursions, disinformation and cyber attacks that drive its defence spending toward ≈5 % of GDP and shape its security posture [1].

Late 2023 – Ukraine fields attack drones to fill infantry gaps, sparking a rapid battlefield revolution; Russia counters with sensor‑equipped kamikaze drones, reshaping combat dynamics across the front [4].

2023 – Russia stations tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, expanding its forward‑deployed nuclear posture and raising escalation risks for NATO’s eastern flank [6].

June 2025 – NATO members adopt a Hague‑summit pledge to raise defence spending to 5 % of GDP by 2035, a target driven by perceived Russian threats and championed by Donald Trump [2].

Oct 2025 – A Finnish court dismisses charges against the crew of the Eagle S tanker, highlighting legal hurdles that complicate NATO’s response to Russia’s “shadow‑fleet” sabotage operations [15].

Dec 1, 2025 – NATO’s military chief Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone signals that the alliance is weighing pre‑emptive strike options; Moscow’s foreign ministry calls the stance “extremely irresponsible” and warns of escalation [15].

Dec 2, 2025 – President Vladimir Putin declares Russia ready to confront NATO members if Europe initiates hostilities, while Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov says Moscow lacks dialogue with Europe, underscoring heightened tension [14].

Dec 7, 2025 – The United States releases a 33‑page National Security Strategy that Russia says is “largely consistent” with Moscow’s vision; Dmitry Medvedev welcomes the document as opening a dialogue window [3][13].

Dec 11, 2025 – NATO Secretary‑General Mark Rutte warns that Russia could target NATO allies within five years, urges a swift move to the 5 % GDP defence target, and credits former President Trump with initiating Russia‑Ukraine talks; the same day President Zelensky convenes a “Coalition of the Willing” video conference amid Trump’s push for territorial concessions [5][12].

Dec 16, 2025 – The EU freezes Russian‑owned assets indefinitely, launches a two‑year €90 billion loan to Ukraine, and sets a goal to achieve autonomous European defence by 2030, while the Trump administration pressures NATO allies to meet the 5 % GDP spending benchmark by 2035 [16].

Dec 22, 2025 – Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov warns that NATO and Russia are edging toward direct conflict between nuclear powers, labeling the trajectory “catastrophic” and singling out Britain and France as especially aggressive [10].

Dec 24, 2025 – European security officials urge the continent to prepare for possible war with Russia, citing a shift away from reliance on U.S. protection; the Pentagon simultaneously drafts plans to downgrade major U.S. headquarters, including EUCOM, reflecting a recalibration of American force posture in Europe [9].

Dec 28, 2025 – Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov claims Europe prepares for war with Russia ahead of a planned Trump‑Zelensky meeting in Florida; NATO reiterates its 5 % defence‑spending goal, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz declares Europe is “no longer at peace,” and Russia continues to allocate >7 % of its GDP to the military [8].

Jan 14, 2026 – Polish President Andrzej Nawrocki tells the BBC that Donald Trump is the only world leader capable of stopping Vladimir Putin, thanks Britain for RAF Typhoon support, and references the extraordinary September 2025 drone incursion that tested Poland’s NATO defences [1].

Jan 15, 2026 – Sergey Karaganov warns that a defeated Russia could unleash nuclear strikes on Europe, while former President Trump says Putin is ready to negotiate and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov concurs; the discussion also highlights NATO’s contentious push to place nuclear weapons in Greenland, raising fears of the island falling under Chinese or Russian influence [7].

Feb 22‑23, 2026 – Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov threatens to target Estonia with Russian nuclear weapons if NATO stations nuclear arms on Estonian soil, and Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna says the country would not oppose such deployment, signaling a potential expansion of NATO’s nuclear posture in the Baltics [6].

Feb 24, 2026 – Analysts note that four years of war have reshaped global warfare, with drones dominating the battlefield, NATO members locked into a 5 % GDP defence commitment through 2034, and the Trump administration’s National Security Strategy signalling a retreat from worldwide U.S. leadership toward selective, ideologically aligned allies [4].

Future/Planned

2027 (expected) – Poland hopes to receive an invitation to the Britain‑hosted G20 summit, reflecting its desire for greater global diplomatic standing [1].

2030 (target) – The European Union aims to achieve a self‑defence capability that can repel external attacks without U.S. assistance, marking a strategic shift toward strategic autonomy [16].

2035 (target) – NATO allies plan to meet the 5 % of GDP defence‑spending benchmark set at the 2025 Hague summit and reinforced by U.S. pressure under Trump’s administration [2][16].

Future (unspecified) – Estonia indicates willingness to host NATO nuclear weapons if the alliance deems it necessary, opening the possibility of a new nuclear‑sharing arrangement in the Baltic region [6].

Future (unspecified) – Poland explores developing its own nuclear defence options, echoing former President Andrzej Duda’s suggestion that the country could host American tactical nuclear weapons [6].