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Canada Commits to 5% GDP Arctic Defence Amid Trump‑Era US Pressure

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Canada Announces 5 % GDP Defence Target at Davos Prime Minister Mark Carney told the World Economic Forum that Canada will lift defence spending from the current 2 % to 5 % of gross domestic product by 2035, funding new over‑the‑horizon radars, submarines, aircraft and additional Arctic troops [1][2]. The pledge follows a broader strategy to sustain a permanent northern presence and modernise the eight staffed bases that guard a 162,000 km coastline [1]. Carney framed the move as essential to prevent Canada from being “eaten into the margins” of great‑power competition [2].

Aging Radar Network Struggles Against Hypersonic Missiles Canada’s existing early‑warning radars, many dating from the Cold War, cannot reliably track hypersonic weapons such as Russia’s Oreshnik missile, which flies at roughly ten times the speed of sound [1]. Experts like Troy Bouffard warn that without space‑based sensors and upgraded over‑the‑horizon systems, the Arctic will remain vulnerable [1]. The new budget is intended to replace these legacy assets and close the detection gap.

Trump Administration Pressures Canada with Golden Dome and Statehood Talk President Trump has floated a $61 billion price tag for Canada to join the U.S. “Golden Dome” missile‑defence scheme or even become the 51st state, prompting UN ambassador Bob Rae to denounce the proposal as a “protection racket” [1]. The Golden Dome plan relies on over‑the‑horizon and satellite sensors, but Canada’s exact role remains unclear [1]. U.S. envoy Pete Hoekstra described any intervention as “mostly hypothetical,” while Ottawa has not ruled out deploying troops to Greenland as a symbolic sovereignty gesture [2].

NORAD and Denmark Reinforce Multi‑Nation Arctic Operations NORAD confirmed that aircraft from U.S. and Canadian bases will operate out of Greenland, strengthening the trilateral defence link with Denmark [2]. This coordination dovetails with NATO’s broader Arctic security agenda and supports Canada’s stated intent to deepen its northern defence posture [2]. The move underscores continued institutional cooperation despite political friction over the Golden Dome proposal.

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Timeline

2022 – Russia employs the Oreshnik hypersonic missile in Ukraine, travelling at roughly ten times the speed of sound, exposing the inability of Cold‑War‑era early‑warning radars to detect such threats and prompting calls for modern sensor upgrades[1].

April 2025 – The Trump administration issues an executive order affirming U.S. dominance over Arctic waterways, intensifying American focus on Greenland and signaling a more aggressive Arctic policy[1].

2025 – President Trump proposes the “Golden Dome” missile‑defence plan, offering Canada $61 billion to join the programme or become the 51st U.S. state; UN ambassador Bob Rae denounces the offer as a “protection racket”[1].

Jan 2026 (Davos) – Prime Minister Mark Carney warns of a global “rupture,” urges middle powers to coordinate, and pledges to raise Canada’s defence budget to 5 % of GDP by 2035 to fund new over‑the‑horizon radars, submarines, aircraft and Arctic troops[1][2].

Jan 2026 (Davos) – Troy Bouffard of the Center for Arctic Security stresses that existing Cold‑War‑era radars cannot counter hypersonic missiles, calling for space‑based sensors and over‑the‑horizon radar to protect the Arctic[1].

Jan 20, 2026 – An AI‑generated map showing the U.S. flag over Canada, Greenland and Venezuela circulates on Truth Social, shocking Canadians but spurring a resolve to withstand provocative U.S. demands[2].

Jan 20, 2026 – U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra says questions about U.S. intervention in the Arctic are “mostly hypothetical” and pledges close coordination with Canada on northern security[2].

Jan 20, 2026 – NORAD confirms that aircraft from U.S. and Canadian bases will operate out of Greenland, reinforcing defense cooperation among the United States, Canada and Denmark[2].

Jan 20, 2026 – Canadian officials keep open the option of deploying troops to Greenland as a symbolic demonstration of sovereignty, reflecting a shift in Ottawa’s diplomatic calculus[2].

Jan 24, 2026 – Canada formally announces its plan to lift defence spending to 5 % of GDP by 2035, earmarking funds for over‑the‑horizon radars, new submarines, Arctic‑capable aircraft and additional troops to address emerging hypersonic threats[1].

Jan 24, 2026 – Analysts highlight that Canada’s Arctic defence relies on aging early‑warning radars, eight staffed bases and about 100 Coast Guard personnel monitoring 162,000 km of coastline, underscoring a capability gap against modern threats[1].

Jan 24, 2026 – The U.S. Golden Dome missile‑defence plan, which includes over‑the‑horizon radar, remains uncertain for Canada as Trump publicly claims Ottawa opposes the scheme over Greenland, adding diplomatic tension to the Arctic security landscape[1].

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