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Russia Institutionalizes FPV Drone Strikes Against Civilians, UN Calls Them Crimes

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Widespread FPV Attacks Documented Across Multiple Ukrainian Oblasts The Institute for the Study of War recorded 47 FPV strikes in Kharkiv, 27 in Donetsk, 11 in Sumy, 6 in Chernihiv, 15 in Dnipropetrovsk, 10 in Zaporizhia and one in Kherson between August and December 2025, showing a theater‑wide pattern rather than isolated incidents [1]. These operations deliberately targeted civilian persons and infrastructure, reinforcing a systematic approach to weaponizing civilian harm [1]. The data set underscores the campaign’s intensity and geographic breadth during the latter half of 2025 [1].

UN Commission Labels Campaign a Crime Against Humanity The Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine reported that short‑range FPV drone attacks create a coercive environment forcing thousands to flee, constituting crimes such as murder and forcible population transfer [1]. The commission described the strategy as a deliberate policy to terrorize civilian populations and disrupt normal life [1]. It called the systematic targeting of non‑combatants a violation of international humanitarian law [1].

Rubikon Center Embeds FPV Drones Within Russian BAI Doctrine The Rubikon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies coordinates FPV strikes that generate battlefield air interdiction effects, deliberately targeting civilians to isolate the battlespace and support frontline advances [1]. This integration reflects a doctrinal shift that treats civilian harm as an operational tool rather than collateral damage [1]. The center’s role links high‑level strategic planning with on‑the‑ground drone deployments [1].

Mothership Platforms Extend Reach Into Deep‑Rear Ukrainian Targets Since August 2025 Russia has deployed “mothership” platforms, including Gerbera drones with 300‑600 km range and Molniya‑2 FPVs equipped with Starlink, enabling strikes up to 100 km from the front line [1]. These platforms allow Russian forces to hit deep‑rear civilian sites previously out of range for conventional FPVs [1]. The extended reach amplifies the campaign’s capacity to disrupt civilian infrastructure far behind the front [1].

FPV Tactics Adopted by Other State and Non‑State Actors West African militant groups, Boko Haram, JNIM in the Sahel, the M23 rebel group in the DRC, and the Islamic State have begun fielding cheap commercial FPVs, raising the risk of similar civilian‑targeted campaigns worldwide [1]. The diffusion of this technology suggests a broader trend of low‑cost drones being used for coercive civilian attacks [1]. Monitoring these developments is critical for anticipating future humanitarian threats [1].

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Timeline

Aug 2025: Russia begins deploying “mothership” drones such as Gerbera (300‑600 km range) and Molniya‑2 FPVs equipped with Starlink, extending FPV strike capability up to 100 km into Ukrainian rear areas and enabling deep‑rear civilian targeting [2].

Aug‑Dec 2025: The Institute for the Study of War records 47 FPV strikes in Kharkiv, 27 in Donetsk, 11 in Sumy, 6 in Chernihiv, 15 in Dnipropetrovsk, 10 in Zaporizhia and one in Kherson, illustrating a systematic campaign of civilian‑targeted drone attacks across Ukraine [2].

Dec 2025: Over 35,000 Russian soldiers are killed or seriously wounded, prompting President Volodymyr Zelensky to urge the newly appointed defence minister to raise the attrition target to 50,000 Russian casualties per month to make the war unsustainable for Russia [1].

Early 2026 (Jan‑Feb): A CSIS analysis estimates that 1.2 million Russian personnel have been killed, wounded or missing since the invasion—the highest loss for a major power since World II—while Ukrainian losses are placed between 500,000 and 600,000 [1].

Feb 2026: The Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine declares Russia’s FPV drone campaign a coercive policy and a crime against humanity, citing murder and forcible population transfer as outcomes of systematic civilian targeting [2].

Feb 2026: Analysts note that Russia’s matching or surpassing of Ukrainian drone technology, including fiber‑optic drones immune to electronic warfare, narrows Kyiv’s edge and forces Ukraine to rely on shallow infantry‑focused drone strikes under its “e‑points” incentive scheme [1].

Feb 2026: Ukraine faces severe manpower shortfalls, with fewer than ten infantry soldiers per kilometre along its 745‑mile front and only 30 % of the line covered by drone operators, while 2 million draft‑dodgers and 200,000 deserters strain its attrition strategy [1].

2026 (projection): The Institute for the Study of War projects that it will take roughly 18 months for Russia to capture the remaining 80 % of the Donetsk region, reinforcing Kyiv’s refusal to trade territory for peace and its focus on attrition in the eastern front [1].

2026 (future spread): FPV drone tactics begin to appear among West African militant groups, Boko Haram, JNIM, the M23 rebels in the DRC, and Islamic State affiliates, raising the risk of similar civilian‑targeted campaigns worldwide [2].

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