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Andromeda Star M31‑2014‑DS1 Likely Collapsed Into Black Hole After Failed Supernova, Researchers Say

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Infrared flare and disappearance trace star’s final years The red supergiant M31‑2014‑DS1, about 100,000 times brighter than the Sun, brightened dramatically in infrared in 2014, then faded by more than 10,000 times between 2017 and 2023 and vanished from optical telescopes [1].

Columbia team led by Kishalay De analyzes multi‑wavelength data Researchers at Columbia University combined archival observations with new infrared, optical and radio measurements and ran stellar‑evolution models to determine the star’s mass, radius and pre‑collapse behavior [1].

Core collapse likely produced weak shock, forming black hole The analysis indicates a “failed” supernova: the core collapsed, generating a weak shock that failed to eject the envelope, causing most material to fall back onto the core and create a black hole; the brief infrared brightening is attributed to dust heated by the small amount of expelled matter [1].

Similarity to NGC 6946‑BH1 suggests such events may be common The Andromeda star shares key characteristics with the 2009 vanishing candidate NGC 6946‑BH1, implying that failed supernovae could be more frequent than previously thought and that massive‑star death pathways are less predictable [1].

Competing theory proposes binary‑star merger explains light curve An arXiv pre‑print by Emma Beasor’s group argues the infrared light curve does not match expectations for a failed supernova and could instead result from two massive stars colliding and merging, offering an alternative interpretation [1].

Researchers plan continued observations to refine fate Dr. Kishalay De announced in a recent podcast that the team will keep monitoring the site across wavelengths to test the black‑hole versus merger scenarios and improve constraints on the star’s ultimate outcome [1].

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Timeline

2009 – The luminous transient NGC 6946‑BH1 vanishes after a brief outburst, later identified as a candidate “failed” supernova, establishing a precedent for hidden black‑hole births in massive stars [1].

2014 – The supergiant M31‑2014‑DS1 in the Andromeda galaxy erupts in a dramatic infrared flare, reaching roughly 100,000 times the Sun’s brightness and signaling a major stellar disturbance [1].

2017 – 2023 – M31‑2014‑DS1 dims by more than 10,000 times in the infrared and disappears from optical surveys, suggesting that most of its outer layers have collapsed or been obscured [1].

Dec 15, 2025 – An international team links a 1.3 billion‑light‑year transient to a superkilonova, noting that the first three days mimic a kilonova before the spectrum evolves toward a supernova, thereby proposing a fallback‑heated merger scenario [2].

Dec 2025 – The same researchers stress that additional observations are required to confirm the superkilonova interpretation, describing the event as “eye‑opening” yet emphasizing its provisional status [2].

Feb 18, 2026 – Kishalay De’s Columbia group presents multi‑wavelength analysis showing that M31‑2014‑DS1 likely experienced a “failed” supernova: a weak shockwave caused most ejecta to fall back onto the core, forming a black hole and heating surrounding dust to produce the observed infrared flare [1].

Feb 2026 – Emma Beasor’s collaborators post an arXiv pre‑print arguing that the infrared light curve of M31‑2014‑DS1 better matches a binary‑star merger, challenging the failed‑supernova hypothesis and highlighting competing models for such disappearances [1].

Feb 2026 onward – Dr. De announces ongoing monitoring of the vanished star’s location to refine the fate of M31‑2014‑DS1, planning further infrared and optical observations to test whether a black hole or merger remnant remains [1].

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