Dec 28, 2025 – Nationwide protests erupt after Iran’s rial collapses, spreading from Tehran to rural towns and prompting a death toll of 544 reported by HRANA, underscoring the economic trigger of the unrest[16].

Jan 2, 2026 – President Trump posts on Truth Social that the United States is “locked and loaded” and will rescue Iranian protesters if they are shot, while the Pentagon confirms no major troop movements have occurred[11].

Jan 3, 2026 – Conservative lawmakers including Marjorie Taylor Greene and Thomas Massie publicly criticize Trump’s “locked and loaded” threat, and Iran’s Foreign Ministry warns the U.S. will bear full responsibility for any intervention; the rial hits a record low amid rising fatalities[20].

Jan 7, 2026 – Iran’s chief justice Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei declares “no leniency” for anyone aiding the “enemy,” directly responding to Trump’s earlier warning that Iran would be “hit very hard” if protesters are killed[19].

Jan 8, 2026 – Tehran accuses the United States of a “campaign of interference” that combines sanctions, information warfare and threats of force, while Trump reiterates that Iran could be “hit very hard” if it continues killing demonstrators[18].

Jan 11‑12, 2026 – Senior officials brief Trump on a menu of options—including limited strikes on Iran’s security services, cyber attacks, new sanctions and Starlink internet support—while Trump claims Iran has expressed a willingness to negotiate[10].

Jan 12, 2026 – The BBC reports Trump is weighing “very strong” military options as protests enter a third week, noting disputed casualty figures of nearly 500 demonstrators and 48 security personnel, and highlighting his discussion with Elon Musk about restoring internet via Starlink[2].

Jan 12, 2026 – The State Department issues a Level 4 “Do Not Travel” advisory and urges all Americans in Iran to evacuate immediately as the third week of protests brings hundreds of deaths, thousands of detentions and a near‑total telecom blackout[17].

Jan 13, 2026 – Trump signals a possible renewed intervention, posting “HELP IS ON ITS WAY,” warning of “very strong action” against Iran if protesters are harmed, and noting that polls show only modest public support for strikes[9].

Jan 13, 2026 – Trump prepares for a senior‑official briefing on “very strong options” against Iran, with the Pentagon considering cyber and covert psychological campaigns, while Vice President JD Vance urges “real negotiations” before any confrontation[1].

Jan 14, 2026 – Former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta tells CNN that U.S. credibility demands some action to back Iranian protesters, as the reported death toll climbs to 2,400 and analysts note the regime’s unprecedented weakness amid succession uncertainty[7].

Jan 14, 2026 – A top‑level Trump meeting refines strike options targeting Iran’s security‑service facilities; the administration remains divided, and Starlink begins offering free internet to Iranians while intelligence warns Tehran could retaliate against U.S. bases in the region[8].

Jan 14, 2026 – Yemen’s Ansar Allah warns Trump that any U.S. or “Zionist” aggression against Iran will bring “dire consequences,” linking the threat to the broader Axis of Resistance and noting the group’s capacity to strike U.S. assets[15].

Jan 14, 2026 – Trump consults his national‑security team, demanding a confirmed death toll after hearing “five different figures,” and tells Iranian protesters to keep demonstrating while promising unspecified “help”[23].

Jan 15, 2026 – A late‑night Situation‑Room meeting leaves aides convinced a decision on a limited strike is near; Trump is briefed on the planned execution of 26‑year‑old Erfan Soltani and says “the killing has stopped,” even as Netanyahu urges restraint and Gulf states push for de‑escalation[6].

Jan 16, 2026 – With protests largely silent, Trump hints the killings have ceased, Gulf allies (Qatar, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Egypt) publicly urge the U.S. to avoid strikes, and a carrier strike group moves toward the Middle East as a deterrent[5].

Jan 17, 2026 – Trump tells Politico that Iran needs “new leadership,” prompting Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to label Trump a “criminal” in a national broadcast and Iran’s foreign ministry to accuse the U.S. and Israel of stoking the unrest[14].

Jan 18, 2026 – Iran’s armed‑forces spokesman Gen. Abolfazl Shekarchi warns Trump that any aggression toward Supreme Leader Khamenei will be met with a response that will “set fire to their world,” as the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier group sails westward toward the region[12].

Jan 19, 2026 – President Masoud Pezeshkian warns of full‑scale war if the Supreme Leader is attacked; Trump reiterates calls for regime change and says he would strike if he could be sure protesters are not being killed, while exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi says the killings have not stopped[13].

Jan 20, 2026 – Iran repeats the “set fire to their world” warning, and the U.S. carrier group continues its westward transit, signaling heightened military readiness amid Tehran’s hard‑line posture[12].

Jan 21, 2026 – Iran’s military again warns Trump against any move toward Khamenei, Trump again calls for new Iranian leadership, death‑toll estimates climb into the thousands with over 20,000 arrests, and the carrier Lincoln remains within striking distance of the Middle East[21].

Jan 23, 2026 – Iran’s Supreme Leader orders a “deadly crackdown,” leaving “thousands dead” according to CNN, after weeks of nationwide protests demanding reforms, dramatically intensifying the domestic crisis[4].

Jan 29, 2026 – Trump positions a “Massive Armada” of U.S. forces in the region, declares “NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS” as the core demand on Iran, and the EU designates the IRGC as a terrorist organization, while Iran continues exporting ~2 million barrels of oil daily and its rial hits a historic low of 1.6 million per $1[4].

Feb 19, 2026 – Trump warns Iran that the U.S. will “hit them very hard where it hurts” if protesters are killed, hints a decision could come within ten days with a possible strike as early as the upcoming weekend, and faces overwhelming public opposition (42 % against missile strikes, 70 % against intervention) in multiple polls[3].