2024‑2025 – U.S. sanctions cost Cuba more than $7.5 billion, deepening the island’s worst economic crisis in decades and fueling widespread shortages and blackouts[12].

2025 (Jan‑Sep) – Mexico’s state oil firm PEMEX ships roughly 20,000 barrels per day of crude and refined products to Cuba, becoming Havana’s primary oil lifeline after Venezuela’s deliveries cease[8][10].

Sep 2025 – After U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio visits Mexico City, satellite‑tracking data show PEMEX shipments drop to about 7,000 barrels per day, reflecting mounting U.S. pressure on Mexico[8][10].

Jan 3, 2026 – U.S. forces capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife in Caracas; Cuba reports that 32 of its security personnel are killed during the operation, underscoring Havana’s direct involvement in Maduro’s protection[1].

Jan 11, 2026 – President Donald Trump posts on Truth Social that the United States will stop all Venezuelan oil and money to Cuba, urging Havana to strike a deal “before it is too late”[1][6][12].

Jan 11, 2026 – Trump declares that the United States will now protect Venezuela, signaling a dramatic shift in U.S. regional policy[12].

Jan 12, 2026 – Cuban President Miguel Díaz‑Canel tweets “No one dictates what we do,” rejecting U.S. ultimatums and pledging to defend Cuba’s sovereignty[4].

Jan 12, 2026 – Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla asserts Cuba’s absolute right to import fuel from any willing exporter without U.S. interference, dismissing claims of a security‑for‑oil bargain[4].

Jan 28, 2026 – Trump tells reporters in Iowa that Cuba is “very close to failing” and warns of an imminent economic collapse if Havana does not negotiate[5].

Jan 28, 2026 – Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum announces a temporary pause in PEMEX oil shipments to Cuba, calling the move a “sovereign decision” amid U.S. pressure[11].

Jan 29, 2026 – Charge d’Affaires Mike Hammer warns U.S. Embassy staff that “nothing is getting in” and “no more oil is coming” to Cuba, hinting at an imminent blockade[3].

Jan 29, 2026 – The White House mulls its first naval blockade of Cuba since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, a step that would intensify economic pressure on Havana[3].

Jan 30, 2026 – Trump signs an executive order imposing tariffs on goods from any country that supplies oil to Cuba, explicitly targeting Mexico and threatening to cripple the island’s remaining fuel imports[10].

Feb 1, 2026 – On Air Force One, Trump announces the United States is “starting to talk to Cuba,” while escalating oil restrictions and predicting the Cuban regime’s collapse and a forthcoming “kind” deal[9].

Feb 1, 2026 – President Sheinbaum pledges to send humanitarian food aid to Cuba within days, emphasizing a diplomatic solution despite Trump’s request that Mexico halt oil shipments[8].

Feb 5, 2026 – Deputy Foreign Minister Carlos Fernández de Cossío says Cuba is ready for “meaningful” dialogue but will not discuss regime‑change, mirroring U.S. reluctance to address its own political system[2].

Feb 5, 2026 – Secretary of State Marco Rubio states Washington “would love to see” regime change in Cuba and threatens oil‑tariff measures, labeling Havana a security threat aligned with hostile actors[2].

Feb 5, 2026 – Fernández de Cossío blames U.S. sanctions for Cuba’s energy crisis, calling the economic pressure “equivalent to war”[2].

Feb 18, 2026 – Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez meets Russian FM Sergey Lavrov and President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, seeking fuel assistance as blackouts grip the island[7].

Feb 18, 2026 – Lavrov urges the United States to abandon plans for a sea blockade of Cuba, arguing the global community should demand common sense[7].

Feb 18, 2026 – Putin pledges continued Russian support for Cuba’s sovereignty and security, refusing to accept any blockade and emphasizing historic solidarity[7].

Feb 18, 2026 – The Kremlin announces possible humanitarian fuel shipments to Cuba, stressing that aid is not tied to recent U.S.‑Russia tensions[7].

Feb 18, 2026 – Russian tourism firms suspend Cuba tours because fuel limits prevent planes from refueling on the island, highlighting the depth of the energy crisis[7].