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Trump Announces Immediate 25% Tariff on Iran‑Linked Trade, Raising US Prices and Tensions

Updated (8 articles)

Tariff announced without implementation details On 13 January 2026 President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that a 25 percent tariff would apply to any country doing business with Iran, describing the order as “final and conclusive” and effective immediately[2][4]. The White House has offered no guidance on exemptions, how the tariff stacks on existing duties, or the legal authority beyond the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which is currently under Supreme Court review[1][4]. No list of targeted nations has been released, leaving the definition of “doing business with Iran” ambiguous[4].

Analysts warn higher U.S. consumer costs and China strain Trade experts note that the tariff could raise prices for American shoppers by increasing costs on goods from Iran’s major partners, especially China, whose existing 20 percent tariff on many items could jump to roughly 45 percent[4]. The move is seen as a potential flashpoint for the fragile U.S.–China trade truce, with Beijing warning it will protect its interests if the tariff is applied to Chinese imports[1][2]. Shadow‑ship oil flows and yuan‑denominated sales further complicate enforcement, according to analysts[2].

Iranian protests claim hundreds of lives amid crackdown Human‑rights monitors report at least 600 deaths in three weeks of anti‑government demonstrations, with some sources citing more than 2,500 fatalities since the crackdown began[1][3]. Over 10,000 people have been detained, and the government has imposed a nationwide internet blackout that hampers independent verification[7][6]. The death toll includes minors, and activists warn the true number could be higher due to reporting restrictions[3].

Iran continues robust global trade despite sanctions In 2024 Tehran completed roughly $125 billion in international trade, maintaining strong links with China, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey[1]. Energy exports dominate, while imports are led by gold ($6.7 billion) and essential foods such as grain and pistachios[2][2]. These figures illustrate Iran’s ability to sustain economic activity even under extensive sanctions.

Experts doubt tariffs will alter Tehran’s behavior Specialists interviewed by multiple outlets argue the 25 percent tariff is unlikely to compel Iran to ease its domestic repression, describing the regime as prepared to absorb economic pain to stay in power[1][5]. They caution that the policy could erode trust with key partners, notably China, and may have limited leverage over Tehran’s internal decisions[1][4].

Sources

Timeline

2024 – Iran conducts about $125 billion in international trade, with China, the UAE and Turkey as top partners; energy dominates exports while gold, grain and smartphones lead imports, showing Tehran’s continued global market integration despite sanctions [6].

2025 (year to Oct.) – China purchases over $14 billion of Iranian goods, making it Iran’s largest export partner, while Iran imports $6.7 billion of gold, underscoring reliance on precious metals and food staples amid inflation and rial depreciation [1].

Early Jan 2026 – Anti‑government protests enter their third week across more than 100 Iranian cities; HRANA reports over 500 deaths (including nine children) and roughly 10,700 arrests, while a nationwide internet blackout hampers reporting [3].

Jan 12, 2026 – President Trump posts on Truth Social that any country doing business with Iran will face a “final and conclusive” 25 % tariff on all U.S. trade, effective immediately, though the White House provides no implementation details [4][8].

Jan 12, 2026 – White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt states that “diplomacy remains the president’s first option on Iran, but military force remains on the table,” signaling a hardline posture while keeping diplomatic channels open [8].

Jan 12, 2026 – Two Department of Defense officials brief Trump on covert actions, cyber operations, and long‑range missile strike options against Iran, describing the toolbox as “broad” and contingent on how events unfold [2].

Jan 12, 2026 – Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi tells reporters Tehran is “ready for war” and better prepared than in the last conflict, yet signals openness to negotiations after a U.S. meeting is arranged [5][3].

Jan 12, 2026 – Exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi urges Trump to intervene “sooner” to curb the crackdown, describing the regime’s tactics as “projecting negotiations while real action is at stake” [2].

Jan 12, 2026 – Iranian human‑rights monitors tally at least 544 protesters killed and more than 10,000 detained, while rights groups claim the death toll could be far higher amid the internet blackout [5].

Jan 13, 2026 – Trump says he may act “very strongly” and weighs a U.S. military response if Iran escalates, while the White House keeps forces on standby and prepares a “suite of options” for the president in the coming days [7].

Jan 13, 2026 – Special envoy Steve Witkoff is slated to engage Tehran, and senior officials including Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio convene to present diplomatic and military choices to Trump [7].

Jan 13, 2026 – Senate hawk Lindsey Graham urges “immediate, decisive action” against Iran, rejecting a “Obama‑style” approach, and former Speaker Newt Gingrich calls for dismantling the Iranian dictatorship, reflecting growing bipartisan pressure [7].

Jan 13, 2026 – The European Parliament bans Iranian diplomatic staff from its premises, and Iran summons ambassadors from the UK, Germany, Italy and France, illustrating escalating diplomatic fallout from the protests [3].

Jan 13, 2026 – Iraq‑backed militia Kataib Hezbollah warns the United States that a war with Iran would be “costly,” urging fighters to stand with Iranians and highlighting regional security concerns [3].

Jan 13, 2026 – Iran’s death toll from the crackdown rises to at least 648, including nine minors, with activists warning the true figure could be “several thousand” due to reporting limits [2].

Jan 13, 2026 – Activists later claim the death toll surpasses 2,500, underscoring the severe human cost of the crackdown as the U.S. considers further pressure [6].

Jan 13, 2026 – Analysts warn the 25 % tariff could push the minimum duty on Chinese goods to roughly 45 %, potentially destabilizing the fragile U.S.–China trade truce and raising U.S. consumer prices [4][6].

Jan 13, 2026 – Legal experts note the tariff relies on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which is under Supreme Court challenge; a ruling is expected soon and could invalidate the tariffs or require refunds [1][4].

Jan 13, 2026 – Trump remarks on Truth Social that he would be “screwed” if the tariffs aren’t upheld, emphasizing his personal stake in the policy’s enforcement [1].

Future (2026) – The Supreme Court is slated to issue its decision on the IEPA‑based tariff authority in the coming weeks, a ruling that will determine whether the 25 % tariffs remain in force [1][4].

Future (2026) – The White House plans to present the full “suite of options,” including cyberattacks, psychological campaigns and possible missile strikes, to Trump within days as Tehran’s stance evolves [7][2].

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