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U.S. Conditions on Donetsk Prompt ISW Warning as Russian Advance Slows

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U.S. Ties New Weapons to Donetsk Cession The Trump administration has made additional arms deliveries and a NATO‑style Article 5 security guarantee contingent on Ukraine formally ceding the entire Donbas, including Donetsk Oblast, to Russia, according to the Financial Times report dated 28 January 2026 [1]. Zelensky’s office has not indicated willingness to accept such terms, and the demand arrives as Kyiv seeks to replenish depleted stockpiles. U.S. officials argue the concession could accelerate a negotiated settlement, while Ukrainian leaders view it as a breach of sovereignty. The policy shift follows months of stalled diplomatic talks over security guarantees. [1]

ISW Projects Russian Capture Not Before Mid‑2027 The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) estimates Russian forces lack the manpower, equipment, and favorable weather to seize the remainder of Donetsk before August 2027 [1]. A slowdown in operations during late 2025 and early 2026, attributed to harsh winter conditions, further delays any major offensive. ISW warns that U.S. pressure for territorial concessions could embolden Moscow to postpone its timetable, complicating NATO’s strategic calculations. The analysis underscores that any Russian breakthrough will likely require a new surge of resources. [1]

Russian Generals Overstate Gains, Milbloggers Debunk Claims Army General Valery Gerasimov announced that Russian troops had captured 17 settlements and advanced over 500 km² since 1 January 2026, but ISW’s satellite‑imagery review confirms only about 265 km² of actual progress [1]. Pro‑war Russian milbloggers have repeatedly labeled the Ministry of Defence’s statements as “beautiful” yet false, especially regarding alleged control around Kupyansk where no settlements are verified. SVR chief Sergei Naryshkin and Duma Defense Deputy Alexei Zhuravlyov rejected NATO guarantees and demanded broader security terms, intensifying internal propaganda battles. The discrepancy highlights a growing rift between official narratives and independent analysts. [1]

Shahed Drone Attack Kills Civilians on Kharkiv Train President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed a Shahed‑type drone strike on a passenger train near Barvinkove in Kharkiv Oblast, killing at least five civilians, as reported by the Kharkiv Prosecutor’s Office [1]. Ukrainian officials identified three drones involved in the attack, marking one of the deadliest drone‑related incidents on Ukrainian railways this year. The strike prompted renewed calls for enhanced air‑defense coverage along critical transport corridors. International observers noted the incident underscores the expanding role of Iranian‑supplied drones in Russia’s war strategy. [1]

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Timeline

Nov 27, 2025 – Russian forces accelerate their push in Donetsk, narrowing the front but still unlikely to capture the remaining third of the oblast by 2026, according to analyst Rob Lee, highlighting a contested front line and increasing pressure on Ukrainian defenses. [1]

Nov 28, 2025 – Ukrainian artillery gunner “Kelt” and Da Vinci Wolves commander Serhii Filimonov voice deep skepticism that Moscow will honor any peace agreement, fearing a short‑term truce that would let Russia regroup and re‑invade. [1]

Late 2025 – early 2026 – Bad weather slows Russian offensive operations, causing a temporary pause in territorial gains and giving Ukrainian forces a brief window to reinforce positions along the 800‑mile front. [2]

Jan 1, 2026 (reported) – Army General Valery Gerasimov claims Russian troops have seized 17 settlements and over 500 km² since the start of the year, but ISW verifies only about 265 km², exposing a pattern of inflated reporting by the Russian Ministry of Defence. [2]

Jan 28, 2026 – The United States conditions additional weapons and a NATO‑style Article 5 security guarantee on Ukraine agreeing to cede all of Donbas, including Donetsk Oblast, to Russia, a demand that draws sharp criticism from Russian officials who view it as a strategic error. [2]

Jan 2026 – President Volodymyr Zelensky confirms a Shahed‑drone strike on a passenger train near Barvinkove in Kharkiv region, killing at least five civilians, underscoring the ongoing civilian toll of the conflict. [2]

2026 – Ukrainian President Zelensky says a revised U.S.–Russia draft peace plan could be “workable” if it allows Ukraine to retain a sizable force, reflecting Kyiv’s attempt to balance diplomatic concessions with military viability. [1]

Aug 2027 (projected) – The Institute for the Study of War projects that Russia will not be able to launch its next major seizure in Donetsk before August 2027, due to the need for additional time, resources, and personnel. [2]

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