Dec 12, 2025 – President Donald Trump warns that the United States “will strike any new Iranian nuclear facility” if Tehran restarts its program, citing the June 2025 U.S.–Israeli strikes that crippled Iran’s enrichment sites [17].

Dec 30, 2025 – President Masoud Pezeshkian posts that “cruel aggression will be met with a harsh and discouraging response,” signaling Tehran’s readiness to retaliate against any U.S. attack [16][20].

Dec 31, 2025 – Iranian IRGC begins developing chemical and biological warheads for ballistic missiles, prompting Trump to say the U.S. “could back Israeli strikes” if Tehran rebuilds its long‑range missile capability [15].

Jan 13, 2026 – Trump hints at “very strong options” against Iran after the regime’s protest crackdown, while parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf declares all U.S. bases and ships “legitimate targets” if attacked [14].

Jan 15, 2026 – U.S. experts note that the weapons stockpile is depleted yet still powerful; Trump orders assets to be “prepared for a strike” as protests in Iran intensify [13].

Jan 28, 2026 – Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi denies any Iranian request for talks, urging Washington to stop threatening war, while Trump claims Iran “is ready for a deal” and orders an “armada” of warships into the region [12].

Jan 28, 2026 – U.S. Central Command launches multi‑day air drills; Trump posts on Truth Social that “time is running out” and demands a “fair and equitable” nuclear deal, while Iran warns its forces have “fingers on the trigger” and EU members move to label the IRGC as a terrorist organization [9].

Jan 29, 2026 – Trump warns “time is running out” for a nuclear deal and threatens a “far worse” strike, as open‑source tracking shows at least 15 fighter jets and the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier group massing in the Gulf; Iran’s foreign ministry replies that its armed forces stand ready to “immediately and powerfully respond” [3][11].

Jan 29, 2026 – Trump considers a major new strike after preliminary nuclear talks stall, posting an ultimatum on Truth Social that Iran must negotiate a “fair and equitable deal – NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS” or face a “far worse” attack, while senior adviser Ali Shamkhani warns any U.S. attack would be “the start of war” [8].

Jan 30, 2026 – Foreign Minister Araghchi says Iran will join “fair and just” nuclear talks only if they are “meaningful, logical and free from threat,” rejecting any discussion of its missile program; Trump replies that “very big, very powerful ships” are sailing toward Iran and urges Tehran to halt its nuclear work and stop killing protesters [7][1].

Jan 31, 2026 – Analysts note that U.S. naval pressure shifts from two carrier groups to a single carrier group, while Iran’s armed forces remain weakened after Israel’s 12‑day June campaign; Trump’s options narrow to precise strikes on IRGC leaders or broader bombardment, both constrained by political limits [6].

Feb 2, 2026 – President Pezeshkian orders the start of nuclear negotiations with the United States, while Trump expresses optimism that a deal can avert conflict; the U.S. moves the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier group toward West Asia and prepares for talks slated in Oman [21][4].

Feb 2, 2026 – Turkey works to convene U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and senior Iranian officials for a meeting by week’s end; the carrier and destroyers remain positioned as a show of force, and the EU formally designates the IRGC as a terrorist organization [19].

Feb 3, 2026 – President Pezeshkian announces Iran is “ready for US talks if a threat‑free environment exists,” instructing Foreign Minister Araghchi to pursue negotiations; Trump threatens “tremendous force” and demands an end to Iran’s nuclear program and protest killings, with potential talks slated for Istanbul [1][10].

Feb 5, 2026 – Trump tells Iran’s supreme leader that he should be “very worried” ahead of Muscat talks, while Iran vows swift retaliation and showcases the Khorramshahr‑4 missile with a 1,240‑mile range; recent maritime incidents include a U.S. carrier shooting down an Iranian drone [5].

Feb 6, 2026 – With Trump’s approval below 40%, his administration schedules U.S.–Iran talks in Oman, outlines goals on nuclear limits, ballistic missiles, terrorist sponsorship, and human‑rights concerns, and warns that a multi‑day air campaign would be politically risky and could create a power vacuum [4].

Feb 11, 2026 – Iran and the United States weigh a second round of nuclear talks after the June 2025 war and nationwide protests; Trump escalates pressure by moving naval assets into the Gulf and threatens a strike over protest killings, while Oman hosts face‑to‑face meetings between Araghchi and U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff [18].