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Trump Administration Launches Project Vault to Stockpile $12 Billion Critical Minerals

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Project Vault Funding and Structure The Trump administration unveiled Project Vault in the first week of February 2026, creating a $12 billion public‑private fund to acquire and store 60 minerals on the U.S. Geological Survey’s 2025 Critical Minerals List [1]. Financing blends $10 billion in Export‑Import Bank (EXIM) loans with $2 billion of private capital, establishing a hybrid credit‑investment model [1]. Participants must pay a security premium that funds storage costs and hedges against spot‑price volatility [1].

Trigger Mechanism and Withdrawal Rules EXIM will issue long‑term loans for mineral purchases, but draw‑downs occur only when predefined market‑disruption criteria are met, ensuring the reserve is used solely during supply crises [1]. The criteria include sudden export bans, sharp price spikes, or other shocks that threaten national‑security supply chains [1]. This conditional access aims to prevent premature depletion and maintain strategic stockpiles for future emergencies [1].

Strategic Context and Historical Parallel Project Vault responds directly to China’s 2025 restriction on rare‑earth magnets, which nearly halted U.S. automobile production and exposed dependence on a single foreign source [1]. The initiative mirrors the 1975 U.S. petroleum strategic reserve, extending the concept to critical minerals as national‑security assets amid Chinese dominance in mining, processing, and magnet manufacturing [1]. By stockpiling these resources, the United States seeks to reduce vulnerability and safeguard industrial output [1].

International Partnerships and FORGE Forum The United States signed 11 new bilateral agreements—including with Japan, the EU, Mexico, and the UK—to secure diversified supply chains under Project Vault [1]. It also convened a 54‑nation Critical Minerals Ministerial, establishing the Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement (FORGE) as the successor to the Minerals Security Partnership and aligning with the Pax Silica coalition launched in December 2025 [1]. These diplomatic moves aim to create a multilateral network that shares procurement, processing, and storage responsibilities [1].

Political Risks and Implementation Challenges Analysts warn that the “America First” approach could generate hierarchical trade negotiations, prompting partner concerns over asymmetrical commitments and potentially undermining trust in the coalition [1]. Domestic political opposition may also question the allocation of public funds and the reliance on private capital for strategic reserves [1]. Successful implementation will depend on balancing national security goals with transparent, mutually beneficial agreements with allies [1].

Sources

Timeline

2020 – The United States reopens its consulate in Nuuk, restoring a diplomatic foothold that underpins later strategic talks on Greenland’s mineral resources[2].

2021 – Greenland passes legislation restricting uranium by‑products, a rule that later complicates any plan to process rare‑earth ores containing radioactive elements[5].

2023 – The Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland reports that Greenland contains 25 of the 34 “critical raw materials” identified by the European Commission, highlighting the island’s vast untapped mineral wealth[2].

Jan 2025 – A poll shows only 6 % of Greenlanders favor U.S. annexation while 85 % oppose it, underscoring strong local resistance to any American takeover of the territory[4].

Dec 29, 2025 – Analysts note that a small island’s rare‑earth potential could disrupt China’s dominance, prompting governments and firms to accelerate diversification of supply chains[6].

Jan 7, 2026 – Newsweek publishes a USGS‑based map estimating Greenland’s rare‑earth reserves at roughly 1.5 million t, comparable to the United States and far larger than Canada, fueling heightened geopolitical interest[5].

Jan 11, 2026 – Tracy Hughes warns that the U.S. fixation on Greenland “is about geopolitical posturing and stock‑promotion rather than a realistic solution for tech supply needs,” while Diogo Rosa stresses the logistical nightmare of building power and transport infrastructure in the remote Arctic[8].

Jan 12, 2026 – Malte Humpert calls the vision of turning Greenland into an American rare‑earth factory “science‑fiction” and likens it to lunar mining, and Christian Keldsen cautions there is “no need to take over the country,” urging normal business engagement[4].

Jan 15, 2026 – Senators Jeanne Shaheen and Todd Young introduce a bipartisan bill to create a $2.5 billion agency for critical‑mineral stockpiles; Shaheen calls it “a historic investment” and Young says it is “a much‑needed step to protect national and economic security”[7].

Jan 22, 2026 – President Trump tells CNBC that the Greenland framework “includes mineral rights,” then at Davos stresses that his aim is “security, not resource exploitation,” framing the mineral component as a secondary objective[3].

Jan 23, 2026 – Trump announces a defence‑resource “framework” that secures U.S. rights to Greenland’s rare‑earths; Senator Ted Cruz testifies that Greenland’s “vast reserves of rare earth elements” are crucial for U.S. security, and the Export‑Import Bank earmarks up to $120 million for an American mining project[2].

Jan 26, 2026 – The Trump administration commits $1.6 billion to take a stake in Oklahoma‑based USA Rare Earth, pairing a $1.3 billion Commerce Department loan with $277 million in federal funds; Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick says the investment “ensures our supply chains are resilient and no longer reliant on foreign nations”[1].

Feb 17‑18, 2026 – The administration launches Project Vault, a $12 billion public‑private fund (10 billion in EXIM loans, 2 billion private capital) to stockpile 60 critical minerals after China’s 2025 rare‑earth export ban threatens U.S. auto production; the program creates the FORGE forum with 54 nations and builds on the historic 1975 petroleum reserve model[9].

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