June 2025 – The United States carries out F‑35 strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities at Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow, prompting Tehran to condemn the attacks as violations of sovereignty and to vow retaliation, establishing a recent precedent for heightened U.S.–Iran confrontation [6].

Dec 5, 2025 – The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launches the two‑day Shahid Mohammad Nazeri naval drill across the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Sea of Oman, warning nearby U.S. warships to stay away and threatening decisive action if interfered, while a Gulf Cooperation Council summit backs UAE claims to disputed islands, further inflaming regional tensions [6].

Dec 28, 2025 – Massive protests erupt across Iran demanding political reforms; Iranian security forces detain over 49,500 people and record at least 6,713 deaths, while the government labels many demonstrators “terrorists,” intensifying domestic unrest that fuels Tehran’s external posturing [8].

Jan 28, 2026 – U.S. Air Forces Central Command begins multi‑day drills to sharpen rapid deployment and dispersed operations, and President Donald Trump posts “Time is running out” on Truth Social, warning an “armada” is heading toward Iran and promising a strike “far worse than the 2025 strikes” if Tehran does not negotiate a fair nuclear deal [1].

Jan 31, 2026 – CENTCOM issues an explicit warning that any unsafe IRGC behavior near U.S. forces in the Strait of Hormuz could trigger escalation, while Iran schedules a two‑day live‑fire naval exercise in the waterway that sees roughly 100 merchant ships daily, and IRGC chief Amir Hatami affirms high defensive readiness, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi urging the U.S. to “set aside their threats” [5].

Feb 1, 2026 – Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei tells a Tehran crowd that any U.S. attack would spark a regional war and that Iran will deliver a “heavy blow,” while the European Union moves to label the IRGC as a terrorist organization and Iran’s parliament speaker retaliates by declaring all EU militaries terrorist, escalating diplomatic hostility [8].

Feb 2026 (early) – EU ministers convene in Brussels to debate designating the IRGC as a terrorist group, with France, Italy and Israel pushing the designation, a step that could tighten economic pressure on Tehran ahead of potential conflict [1].

Feb 16, 2026 – Secretary of State Marco Rubio says Iran’s “radical Shia clerics” make real deals “very difficult,” the United States sails the nuclear‑powered carrier USS Gerald R. Ford from the Caribbean to join USS Abraham Lincoln as a contingency, and Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht‑Ravanchi offers to dilute Iran’s 60 % enriched uranium if the U.S. provides sanctions relief, while the IRGC conducts drills in the Strait of Hormuz [4].

Feb 18, 2026 – Analysts cite six indicators of imminent war: the U.S. deploys the Gerald R. Ford alongside Abraham Lincoln and shoots down an Iranian drone; satellite images show Iran adding roofs and reinforced tunnels at Natanz, Isfahan and other sites; Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz for the first time since the 1980s, firing live missiles and halting traffic for several hours; and prediction markets assign a 71 % chance of a U.S. or Israeli strike by June 30 [3].

Feb 19, 2026 – Iran and Russia conduct joint naval drills in the Persian Gulf, simulating a hijacked‑ship rescue with missile‑launching warships and special‑forces teams, while the U.S. positions the carriers Gerald R. Ford and Abraham Lincoln and dozens of warships nearby; Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warns the situation is “playing with fire,” and Geneva diplomatic talks stall as White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt says President Trump has not yet authorized a strike [2].

Feb 19, 2026 – President Trump prepares to decide over the weekend whether to order an attack on Iran, with a second carrier slated to arrive in the Mediterranean next week; Supreme Leader Khamenei posts a Quranic verse, “So should anyone aggress against you, assail him in the manner he assailed you,” signaling readiness for retaliation; Geneva talks on Feb 17 yield “progress” but U.S. Vice‑President J.D. Vance warns “gaps remain,” and Iran’s atomic chief Mohammad Eslami asserts Iran’s nuclear program complies with IAEA rules and that no nation can deny Iran peaceful nuclear benefits [9].