Dec 28, 2025 – Protests erupt across Iran after the rial collapses, spreading from Tehran to provincial towns; HRANA reports a death toll of 544 and marks the unrest as the largest nationwide demonstration in years[13].

Jan 2, 2026 – President Trump posts on Truth Social that the United States is “locked and loaded” to rescue Iranian protesters if they are shot, while the Pentagon confirms no change in U.S. troop levels in the region; Iranian officials warn that U.S. forces could become legitimate targets[9][21].

Jan 3, 2026 – Conservative lawmakers publicly rebuke Trump’s “locked and loaded” threat, with Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene calling it contrary to 2024 GOP votes, while Iran’s foreign ministry warns the United States will bear full responsibility for any consequences of U.S. interference[17].

Jan 7, 2026 – Iran’s chief justice Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei declares “no leniency” for anyone aiding the “enemy” amid the protests, explicitly linking his hard‑line stance to Trump’s recent threats of heavy U.S. retaliation[16].

Jan 8, 2026 – Tehran accuses Washington of launching a “campaign of interference” that combines sanctions, information warfare and threats of force, citing Trump’s warning that Iran could be “hit very hard” and linking it to a recent U.S. strike on Venezuela[15].

Jan 12, 2026 – The U.S. State Department issues a Level 4 “Do Not Travel” advisory, urging all American citizens to evacuate Iran immediately as the third week of protests sees hundreds killed and thousands detained[14].

Jan 12, 2026 – senior U.S. officials brief President Trump on a menu of options targeting Iran’s security services—cyber tools, sanctions and limited kinetic strikes—while stressing that no boots‑on‑the‑ground operation is planned; a follow‑up briefing is scheduled for the next day[8].

Jan 12, 2026 – Trump tells reporters he is reviewing “very strong options” and demands a confirmed death toll, noting he has heard five different figures, while also saying he will discuss restoring internet access with Elon Musk and Starlink[2][20].

Jan 13, 2026 – Trump signals a possible renewed intervention, cancels meetings with Iranian leaders, posts “HELP IS ON ITS WAY,” and warns of “very strong action” if protesters are harmed; senior aides are set to brief him on Tuesday (Jan 14) on possible courses of action[7][1].

Jan 13, 2026 – Analysts note that the administration is weighing a multi‑track response—including sanctions, cyber operations and limited strikes—while Zineb Riboua of the Hudson Institute says the U.S. will likely act on several fronts simultaneously[13].

Jan 14, 2026 – Trump holds a lengthy meeting with top aides to refine strike options; the national‑security team remains divided over a kinetic attack on Iran’s security‑service facilities, while Gulf Arab states push behind‑the‑scenes for diplomacy and Starlink begins providing free internet to Iranians[6][12].

Jan 14, 2026 – Former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta urges decisive U.S. action to back Iranian protesters, arguing that credibility hinges on visible support, even as officials caution that a decapitation strike could empower hard‑liners[5].

Jan 15, 2026 – Egypt, Oman, Saudi Arabia and Qatar privately ask Washington to delay any strike, warning of regional destabilization; U.N. Ambassador Mike Waltz tells the Security Council that military action remains on the table, while oil prices dip and the Treasury announces new sanctions on 18 Iranian individuals and entities[19].

Jan 16, 2026 – Protest activity quiets as security forces maintain a heavy presence; Trump hints that killings have stopped, and a U.S. carrier strike group moves toward the Middle East as a deterrent, while Gulf states publicly urge restraint[4].

Jan 17, 2026 – Trump declares that Iran needs “new leadership,” labeling Supreme Leader Khamenei a “sick man,” while Khamenei retaliates by branding Trump a criminal in a national broadcast; diaspora groups call for exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi to return and lead a transition[11].

Jan 19, 2026 – Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian warns that any attack on the Supreme Leader would trigger a full‑scale war; Khamenei says Tehran does not seek war but will punish “criminals,” and Trump tells Politico that regime change is necessary and that he would strike if he could be sure protesters are not being killed[10].

Jan 20, 2026 – Iran’s armed‑forces spokesman Gen. Abolfazl Shekarchi warns that aggression toward Khamenei will meet strong retaliation; the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier group passes the Strait of Malacca and heads west, placing U.S. naval power within striking distance of Iran[18].

Jan 23, 2026 – Iran’s Supreme Leader orders a deadly crackdown that leaves thousands dead, according to CNN reports, intensifying international condemnation and prompting the U.S. to consider its limited‑strike options[3].

Jan 29, 2026 – Trump positions a “Massive Armada” of U.S. forces in the region, reiterates the core demand of “NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS,” and outlines three risky military paths (oil embargo, limited punitive strikes, regime‑decapitation); the EU votes to designate the IRGC as a terrorist organization, while Iran’s rial sinks to a historic low of 1.6 million per dollar despite continued oil exports[3].